CPAC: PALI - Post-Tropical

[NDG]

Too funny, yesterday I saw this system while checking out the satellite over the Pacific and I thought, wow what a good looking disturbance but when I saw how close to the equator it was I dismissed it, also for a moment I thought it was in the southern hemisphere.

[Kingarabian]

More EPAC ACE?

[wxman57]

More EPAC ACE?

EPAC and CPAC ACE (pre-Pali) was at zero for 2016.

[Yellow Evan]

More EPAC ACE?

It's a new year now.

[1900hurricane]

Pali is starting to build a core. Visible imagery tells the story.

[WeatherGuesser]

So, why does it have last year's name?

[RattleMan]

So, why does it have last year's name?

There is no "last year". The list keeps going through multiple years until it's used up.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM PALI DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012016
500 PM HST THU JAN 07 2016

PAIL REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT THE CLOUD TOPS
HAVE WARMED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES WERE 3.0/45 KT FROM ALL SITES. I HAVE KEPT THE INITIAL
INTENSITY UNCHANGED AT 45 KT.

FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING PALI TRACKING NORTHWEST TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AFTER THAT...THE RIDGE REBUILDS NORTHWEST OF
PALI AND THE STORM WILL BE IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING FLOW BETWEEN
THE EASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST AND
WESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE EQUATOR. THE MODELS DIVERGE AT THAT POINT
WITH MOST SHOWING THE SYSTEM BECOMING SLOW-MOVING AND CURVING WEST
THEN SOUTHWEST THEN SOUTH. HOWEVER...THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MODEL
SPREAD WITH SOME MODELS TURNING THE SYSTEM SHARPLY SOUTHEAST AND
OTHERS KEEPING IT MOVING OFF TOWARD THE WEST. I HAVE KEPT PALI ON A
FISHHOOK-SHAPED TRACK...TURNING SOUTHWEST...THEN SOUTH FOLLOWING THE
MODEL CONSENSUS. IN ANY CASE FORWARD MOTION IS LIKELY TO BE QUITE
SLOW AFTER 24 HOURS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS IVCN GUIDANCE WITH LITTLE
CHANGE FOR 36 HOURS...THEN VERY SLOW WEAKENING. DESPITE THE
SEASON...THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK
IS SUFFICIENTLY WARM TO SUPPORT A STRONG TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE INCREASING EASTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE TO THE NORTH...AND A DEVELOPING TROUGH ALOFT
IN WHICH THE CYCLONE MAY BECOME EMBEDDED.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 5.2N 171.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 5.9N 171.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 7.0N 172.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 7.6N 173.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 8.0N 173.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 8.2N 174.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 8.0N 175.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 13/0000Z 7.5N 175.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM PALI DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012016
1100 PM HST THU JAN 07 2016

AFTER A BRIEF DECLINE THIS AFTERNOON...DEEP CONVECTION IS INCREASING
ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING NEAR THE CORE OF PALI. DEEP CONVECTION HAS
BEEN FAIRLY STEADY A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES TO THE EAST...WITHIN AN
AREA THAT IS THE EASTERN END OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL SURFACE TROUGH
THAT RUNS THROUGH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM HFO...SAB...AND JTWC ALL CAME IN AT 3.0/45 KT...AND THE CURRENT
INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 45 KT. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE
WIND AND SEAS RADII BASED ON RECENT SCATTEROMETER AND ALTIMETER
DATA.

PALI IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...325 DEGREES...AT 7 KT IN AN
AREA OF RATHER WEAK STEERING FLOW. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A NEARLY WEST TO EAST ORIENTED...LOW LATITUDE
TROUGH. THE TROUGH IS THE PRODUCT OF ANOMALOUSLY STRONG...LOW LEVEL
WESTERLY WINDS BEING DRIVEN IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE AND EASTERLY
WINDS CREATED BY A DEEP RIDGE ROUGHLY CENTERED ALONG 20N. THE
SOMEWHAT TIGHTLY CLUSTERED DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SIMILAR MOTION
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH
A DECREASE IN FORWARD MOTION ON FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LATITUDE
TROUGH. MODEL SPREAD INCREASES GREATLY ON SUNDAY AND BEYOND...THOUGH
ALL EXCEPT THE ECMWF SHOW A SHARP EQUATORWARD TURN BACK INTO THE
TROUGH. THE FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PRIOR ADVISORY AND IS
ROUGHLY DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...THOUGH A BIT
SLOWER IN THE EQUATORWARD TURN ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE.

INTENSITY FORECAST WAS UNCHANGED FROM THE LAST ADVISORY. BEING IN
THE DEEP TROPICS...OCEAN TEMPERATURES ARE SUFFICIENTLY WARM FOR
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...CIMSS AND SHIPS ESTIMATE
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF AROUND 25 KT...AND A 0315 UTC SSMIS
PASS HINTED AT SOME WESTWARD TILT WITH HEIGHT TO THE CYCLONE.
CONTINUED INTERACTION WITH THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND...TO SOME
DEGREE...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WHICH CONTAINS STEADY AND
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD THROUGH DAY FIVE.




FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 5.9N 171.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 6.9N 172.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 7.7N 173.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 8.0N 174.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 8.3N 174.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 8.3N 175.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 7.9N 175.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 13/0600Z 7.3N 175.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER WROE

[NotoSans]

ASCAT suggests this is way higher than 45kt.

[Alyono]

may even be a cane. Looks like a 60 kt vector

[cycloneye]

Up to 55kts.

01C PALI 160108 1200 6.9N 171.8W CPAC 55 994

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM PALI DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012016
500 AM HST FRI JAN 08 2016

DEEP CONVECTION INCREASED AROUND THE CENTER OF PALI OVERNIGHT. A
0549 UTC CORIOLIS PASS...A 0644 UTC SSMIS PASS...AND A 0904 UTC
AMSUB PASS WERE USED IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN EARLIER SSMIS PASS AT
0316 UTC TO DETERMINE THAT THE CYCLONE IS TILTED WITH HEIGHT AND
THAT THE CENTER OF THE SHEARED SYSTEM WAS FARTHER EAST THAN EARLIER
ANTICIPATED. ALSO...A 0905 ASCAT-B PASS THAT CLIPPED THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION SUGGESTED THAT WINDS WERE STRONGER THAN
EARLIER ESTIMATES. NUMEROUS 50 TO 55 KT RAIN-FLAGGED DETECTIONS WERE
REVEALED WITHIN 40 NM OF THE CENTER...AND GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF UN-
FLAGGED 45 KT RETRIEVALS NEARBY...THESE DATA APPEAR REASONABLE.
ALTHOUGH THERE WAS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE CENTER LOCATIONS...
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM HFO...SAB...AND JTWC ALL
CAME IN AT 3.0/45 KT. TAKING INTO CONSIDERATION THE ASCAT DATA...
ALONG WITH A CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE OF 53 KT AND AN EARLIER CIMSS SATCON
OF 52 KT...THE INTENSITY WILL BE RAISED TO 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

PALI IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...335 DEGREES...AT 9 KT.
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A NEARLY WEST TO EAST
ORIENTED...LOW LATITUDE TROUGH. THE TROUGH IS THE PRODUCT OF
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG...LOW LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS BEING DRIVEN IN THE
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE AND EASTERLY WINDS CREATED BY A DEEP RIDGE
ROUGHLY CENTERED ALONG 20N. THE SOMEWHAT TIGHTLY CLUSTERED DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A STEADY
DECREASE IN FORWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LATITUDE
TROUGH. MODEL SPREAD INCREASES GREATLY ON SUNDAY AND BEYOND...THOUGH
ALL EXCEPT THE ECMWF SHOW A SHARP EQUATORWARD TURN BACK INTO THE
TROUGH. THE FORECAST TRACK CONTINUES TO BE CLOSE TO THE PRIOR
ADVISORY AND REMAINS ROUGHLY DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE...THOUGH A BIT SLOWER IN THE EQUATORWARD TURN ON DAYS FOUR
AND FIVE.

BEING IN THE DEEP TROPICS...OCEAN TEMPERATURES ARE SUFFICIENTLY WARM
FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...CIMSS AND SHIPS ESTIMATE
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BETWEEN 20 TO 30 KT AT THIS TIME...AND
CONTINUED INTERACTION WITH THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND...TO SOME
DEGREE...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WEAKENING
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS DOWN THE MIDDLE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WHICH CONTAINS STEADY AND CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD THROUGH DAY FIVE.




FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 7.4N 172.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 7.9N 172.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 8.5N 173.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 8.7N 173.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 8.8N 174.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 8.8N 174.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 8.4N 175.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 13/1200Z 7.5N 175.4W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER WROE

[1900hurricane]

I think Pali might be starting to ingest some of the dry air lurking to the north. The core of the dry air finger beginning to wrap along the NW side of the circulation has PW values below 25 mm/1", which is very unfavorable for tropical cyclones.

[1900hurricane]

Yeah, that's a major dry air wrap coming around.



It's hard to even distinguish the difference between it and Pali when using 85 GHz imagery.

[Alyono]

this has peaked. Was probably very close to hurricane intensity earlier. Easterly shear has increased, causing the weakening

[CrazyC83]

Probably peaked at 60 kt at the time of the ASCAT pass, may have eked up to 65 kt.

[galaxy401]

If El Nino hangs around this year then expect more possible storms in the CPAC...

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM PALI DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012016
1100 AM HST FRI JAN 08 2016

DEEP CONVECTION AROUND TROPICAL STORM PALI DECREASED AND BECAME LESS
ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...A 1407 UTC SSMI PASS...FOLLOWED SOON
AFTER BY A 1556 UTC SSMS PASS...SHOWED LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINED WELL
ORGANIZED...WITH THE LLCC ALMOST 60 NM EAST OF DEEP CONVECTION.
THESE MICROWAVE PASSES ALSO SHOWED THAT PALI MOVED DUE WEST FROM THE
1200 UTC BEST TRACK POSITION...WHICH IS LIKELY UNREPRESENTATIVE.
THE 1200 UTC POSITION WAS THEREFORE REBESTED A BIT TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST TO GIVE PALI A SMOOTH CURVING TRACK TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST.
THE OVERNIGHT ASCAT-B PASS REMAINS COMPELLING...STRONGLY SUGGESTING
A 55 KT SYSTEM. UW-CIMSS SATELLITE CONSENSUS IS ACTUALLY HIGHER...
AT 58 KT...BUT THIS IS PROBABLY TOO HIGH GIVEN SYSTEM APPEARANCE IN
IMAGERY. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE
3.0...45 KT...FROM ALL THREE SATELLITE CENTERS...LIKE LAST
TIME...BUT WE WILL ASSIGN A POSSIBLY GENEROUS 55 KT FOR INITIAL
INTENSITY AS A NOD TO THE EARLIER ASCAT PASS AND UW-CIMSS
CONSENSUS.

WITH THE REBESTED 1200 UTC POSITION TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT...TROPICAL
STORM PALI IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST...295 DEGREES...AT 4
KT. PALI REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW LATITUDE TROUGH INDUCED BY
STRONG WESTERLIES JUST SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR. TRACK GUIDANCE IS
REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED...DEPICTING MOVEMENT GENERALLY TOWARD THE
WESTNORTHWEST THROUGH 48 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE SOUTHWEST FROM DAYS THREE THROUGH FIVE. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE
DIFFERS OVER HOW SHARP THE SOUTHWEST TURN WILL BE. THE FORECAST
TRACK WAS BUMPED LEFT DUE TO INITIAL MOTION...BUT FOLLOWS THE SAME
GENERAL CURVING TRACK BETWEEN GFEX AND TVCN CONSENSUS. PALI IS
FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN BEYOND 48 HOURS AS STEERING FLOW
WEAKENS...KEEPING THIS SYSTEM EAST OF THE DATELINE THROUGH DAY
FIVE.

OCEAN TEMPERATURES AROUND PALI ARE SUFFICIENTLY WARM FOR ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION...AND SHEAR ACROSS THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
DECREASE ACCORDING TO SHIPS AND UW-CIMSS. HOWEVER...CONTINUED
INTERACTION WITH THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
PALI AFTER 24 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST LIES WITHIN THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE...KEEPING THIS SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL STORM THROUGH DAY FIVE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 7.1N 172.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 7.4N 173.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 7.8N 174.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 8.0N 174.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 8.0N 174.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 7.9N 175.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 7.6N 175.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 13/1800Z 6.7N 176.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER POWELL

[Kingarabian]

More EPAC ACE?

EPAC and CPAC ACE (pre-Pali) was at zero for 2016.

Ah. I got confused, thinking since they were still using names from last years and it would count for the previous season.