CPAC: MADELINE - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

Shear is expected to be low as it closes in on Hawaii. I think there's potential for this storm to be stronger than what the models are currently showing.

[Ntxw]

Shear is expected to be low as it closes in on Hawaii. I think there's potential for this storm to be stronger than what the models are currently showing.

It looks very good and that tail...ominous, very good flow. SST's are very warm especially if it takes a southerly route. Lester and 14E will be racking up plenty of ACE. The relative lull in August has allow SST's path for the long trackers to somewhat recover.

[Kingarabian]

Shear is expected to be low as it closes in on Hawaii. I think there's potential for this storm to be stronger than what the models are currently showing.

It looks very good and that tail...ominous, very good flow. SST's are very warm especially if it takes a southerly route. Lester and 14E will be racking up plenty of ACE. The relative lull in August has allow SST's path for the long trackers to somewhat recover.

For sure. I was hoping the EPAC would quiet down to let the SST's recover... At the rate the EPAC was going in July, storms that were attempting to form could not muster much due to the lack of energy. Want to see some nice fish. Hope they steer clear from land. Also check the SST's near Mexico...

I'm going to be that we will be around 220-250 ACE before the season ends.

[TheStormExpert]

Has a far better chance at being a U.S. hurricane hit than anything in all of the Atlantic right now.

[Ntxw]

For sure. I was hoping the EPAC would quiet down to let the SST's recover... At the rate the EPAC was going in July, storms that were attempting to form could not muster much due to the lack of energy. Want to see some nice fish. Hope they steer clear from land. Also check the SST's near Mexico...

I'm going to be that we will be around 220-250 ACE before the season ends.

Yep agreed the area where Patricia was last year will need to be watched into September and October. Still got some time for the long tracker though. Hawaii definitely not feeling too comfortable

[Kingarabian]

[cycloneye]

...MADELINE FORMS WELL EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 137.4W
ABOUT 1235 MI...1990 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1260 MI...2030 KM ESE OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES




TROPICAL STORM MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142016
800 PM PDT FRI AUG 26 2016

Satellite images shows that the cyclone has an impressive band
on the west side of the circulation wrapping at least halfway
around the center. Microwave data also shows an improved inner
core structure, although perhaps the vertical alignment is a bit
tilted due to northeasterly shear. Satellite intensity estimates
range between 30 to 35 kt, and with the increased satellite
presentation since the last advisory, the wind speed is set to 35
kt for this cycle.

Madeline will be moving over SSTs above 27C and in a low-to-moderate
easterly shear environment for the next 2 to 3 days. This should
allow for steady intensification, and the NHC forecast shows the
cyclone becoming a hurricane in about 2 days. Later in the forecast
period the SSTs cool and the mid-level atmosphere dries out
somewhat, which should induce a weakening trend. The guidance is a
little higher than 6 hours ago, and the latest NHC intensity
forecast follows the trend, remaining close to or a little below the
IVCN consensus through the period.

Satellite fixes continue to show an initial motion of 295/10.
Madeline should move generally west-northwestward for the next few
days around a subtropical ridge over the eastern Pacific. The
cyclone is expected to take a westward turn at long range due to a
new ridge building in over the Central Pacific. Models are not in
great agreement on exactly when that turn will take place, and the
details of the motion appear to be related to exactly how strong
Madeline becomes. Overall, the model guidance has shifted a little
bit to the north on this forecast cycle, and the latest NHC
prediction is adjusted in that direction at days 4 and 5.

It is too early to determine what, if any, impacts this cyclone
could have on the Hawaiian Islands near the end of the forecast
period. It is important to remind users that the average 5-day
track forecast error for eastern Pacific tropical cyclones is about
170 miles.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 13.9N 137.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 14.6N 138.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 15.4N 139.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 16.1N 141.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 17.0N 142.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 30/0000Z 18.5N 145.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 31/0000Z 19.5N 149.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 01/0000Z 19.5N 153.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

[Kingarabian]

I don't recall the NHC ever including a snippet on the end of their discussions about a storm potentially affecting the Hawaiian Islands...They usually leave it for the CPHC as it's out of their AOR. But it's nice that they started to do so!

[Alyono]

SSTs cool? Um....

[Kingarabian]

After this moisture moves W of the islands, the next batch of moisture in the trade flow is possible Tuesday through Thursday as Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E approaches the area from the E. The latest official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami indicates that Fourteen-E will be a couple hundred miles E of the Big Island around the middle of next week. While this is far from being certain, it does point to the potential for tropical cyclone impacts in the islands. Continue to monitor the forecast the next couple of days as changes are almost a certainty. It is expected that Fourteen-E will cross 140W into the central Pacific on Saturday, after which time advisories will emanate from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu. Additional wet weather associated with Tropical Cyclone Lester may arrive over Labor Day holiday weekend, but this is extremely uncertain at this time.

Looks like recon will be staying in Hawaii for more than a week when they fly out.

[Alyono]

After this moisture moves W of the islands, the next batch of moisture in the trade flow is possible Tuesday through Thursday as Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E approaches the area from the E. The latest official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami indicates that Fourteen-E will be a couple hundred miles E of the Big Island around the middle of next week. While this is far from being certain, it does point to the potential for tropical cyclone impacts in the islands. Continue to monitor the forecast the next couple of days as changes are almost a certainty. It is expected that Fourteen-E will cross 140W into the central Pacific on Saturday, after which time advisories will emanate from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu. Additional wet weather associated with Tropical Cyclone Lester may arrive over Labor Day holiday weekend, but this is extremely uncertain at this time.

Looks like recon will be staying in Hawaii for more than a week when they fly out.

I suspect you will also get the G-IV

[cycloneye]

Hilo is in cone.

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS rolling soon. We'll see what it has in store.

[Kingarabian]

Moderate TS landfall for the 00z GFS. Same track.

[Alyono]

models going for more shear and a slightly farther north track. HWRF goes for solid cat 2 then quickly has it decapitated

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142016
200 AM PDT SAT AUG 27 2016

Madeline is gradually becoming better organized this morning, with
increasing convective banding noted near the center. Satellite
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have increased to 45 kt, and
this intensity is supported by various objective estimates from
CIMSS and CIRA.

The initial motion is now 300/9. For the next few days, Madeline
should move generally northwestward as it is steered by a segment of
the subtropical ridge. After 72 hours, a turn toward the west is
likely as Madeline encounters the westward-building subtropical
ridge that is steering Hurricane Lester. The track guidance has
shifted significantly to the north since the previous advisory, and
near the end of the forecast period there is a fair amount of
spread regarding whether Madeline will move near the Hawaiian
Islands or north of them. The new forecast track is shifted
northward, but it lies to the south of the center of the guidance
envelope and the consensus models.

Madeline will be moving over SSTs above 27C and in a
light-to-moderate easterly shear environment for the next 2 to 3
days. This should allow for steady intensification, and the new
intensity forecast follows the trend of the previous forecast in
showing Madeline becoming a hurricane in 36 hours or so. After 72
hours, cooler sea surface temperatures and a drier air mass along
the forecast track should result in a slow weakening. The new
intensity forecast is a little stronger than the previous forecast,
but it lies a little below the intensity consensus.

It is too early to determine what, if any, impacts this cyclone
could have on the Hawaiian Islands near the end of the forecast
period. It is important to remind users that the average 5-day
track forecast error for eastern Pacific tropical cyclones is about
170 miles.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 14.5N 138.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 15.1N 139.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 15.8N 140.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 16.7N 141.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 17.8N 143.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 30/0600Z 19.5N 146.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 31/0600Z 20.5N 150.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 01/0600Z 20.5N 155.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Kingarabian]

GFS back to showing a favorable shear environment. Has Madeline intensifying as it nears Hawaii with a 986-989mb landfall. Also has a new peak of it at 966mb.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142016
800 AM PDT SAT AUG 27 2016

A GPM overpass from 1146 UTC indicated that the low-level center of
Madeline was located northeast of previous estimates, near the
northeastern edge of the convection. This is consistent with the
moderate northeasterly shear analyzed over the cyclone by the SHIPS
model output based on the GFS and ECMWF fields. The initial
intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory in agreement with the
latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, and this value is also
close to the latest UW-CIMSS SATCON analysis.

Given the relocation of the center, the best estimate of the initial
motion is an uncertain 310/08. Madeline is expected to continue
moving generally northwestward for the next 72 hours around the
southwesterly periphery of a mid-level ridge centered near 125W.
After that time, a ridge centered north of the Hawaiian Islands
becomes the dominant steering mechanism, and should impart a
westward motion through the remainder of the forecast period. While
the overall track forecast philosophy has not changed, the more
northerly initial position has resulted in a northward shift of the
guidance envelope and the NHC forecast by 30 to 50 n mi through the
forecast period. The new NHC track is near the middle of the
guidance envelope and close to the latest multi-model consensus.

The SHIPS model shows the shear decreasing over Madeline during the
next 12 hours or so, which should allow for some intensification
through 72 hours while the cyclone is moving over SSTs above 27C.
The NHC forecast continues to show Madeline reaching hurricane
intensity in about 36 hours. At days 4 and 5, the SSTs along the
track drop below 27C and the westerly shear increases, which should
result in some weakening. The new NHC intensity forecast is a
little lower than the previous one after 48 hours due to the more
northerly track and is near or a little above the latest intensity
consensus.

It is too early to determine what impacts Madeline could have on
the Hawaiian Islands late in the forecast period. It is important
to remind users that the average day 4 and 5 track forecast errors
for eastern Pacific tropical cyclones are around 145 and 170 miles,
respectively.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 15.2N 138.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 15.9N 139.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 16.7N 140.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 17.7N 142.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 18.8N 143.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 20.5N 147.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 31/1200Z 21.0N 151.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 01/1200Z 21.0N 155.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[Blown Away]

When is last time a cane hit the big island? Hawaii has had so much action around it for a few years...

[Ntxw]

When is last time a cane hit the big island? Hawaii has had so much action around it for a few years...

Not sure about the big island but the last time any kind of hurricane hitting Hawaii was Iniki in 1992 as a cat 4