ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

Look at this ridge over the SE US...HUGE!!!

[cycloneye]

[SouthFLTropics]

With the ridge positioned the way it is I'm surprised we are not actually seeing a WSW movement.

[cycloneye]

As mentioned,ridge is strong so not a recurve here.I stop as fantasyland is ahead after 192 hours.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Ridge is breaking down. Trough time. Possibly.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=239

[Bocadude85]

Out in fantasyland the 12Z GFS has this just sit and spin in the Bahamas for days.

[SouthFLTropics]

Ridge is breaking down. Trough time. Possibly.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=239

Perhaps...Steering currents seem to really be weak around hours 210 to hours 234. Not much motion at all, just sitting east of the Bahamas.

[Bocadude85]

Ridge is breaking down. Trough time. Possibly.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=239

Perhaps...Steering currents seem to really be weak around hours 210 to hours 234. Not much motion at all, just sitting east of the Bahamas.

The GFS loves to stall systems out and have them just sit and spin for days.

[Siker]

The 12z GFS is pretty much on the edge of a stall / recurve versus heading west into FL by day 8-9. An upper level low eats away at building heights over Bermuda, preventing the high over the Southeast and the Bermuda High from bridging (which would send it west).

Also, 12z UKMET develops this into a TS pretty much on top of Puerto Rico.

12z Canadian is very similar to the GFS but takes the Florida route:

[gatorcane]

anything beyond about 168 hours and 192 hours is subject to huge errors - point is GFS takes this west without recurving for a week and has it in the SE Bahamas. What happens after that is still TBD.

[SouthFLTropics]

Ridge is breaking down. Trough time. Possibly.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=239

Perhaps...Steering currents seem to really be weak around hours 210 to hours 234. Not much motion at all, just sitting east of the Bahamas.

The GFS loves to stall systems out and have them just sit and spin for days.

Looks like it hangs it out to wait for the next shortwave and around hour 252 it seems to catch a ride and start heading off NNE. The run was pretty consistent up to that point and then that...Kind of weird.

[gatorcane]

Long-range CMC into South Florida but note the timeframe so take it with a grain of salt!

[cycloneye]

I know,I know,is CMC but puts it over my head.

[PTrackerLA]

GFS keeps coming in weaker and weaker. I could easily see this never developing as well. Could be another non-starter #2016

[cycloneye]

In general.the 12z package of models GFS,UKMET and CMC are more bullish. (Euro pending)

[LarryWx]

Similar to recent runs of the model consensus, the 12Z GFS has this moving at ~25 mph this THU and FRI westbound in the MDR, which was how fast Allen was moving there in 1980.

[Macrocane]

The models have been a real headache this season, I wonder how would they work without the upgrades.

[KWT]

What is worth noting is the CMC actually develops it. Recent runs did nothing with it.

Long way to go but we do know its staying 270 for the next few days.

[StormTracker]

Out in fantasyland the 12Z GFS has this just sit and spin in the Bahamas for days.

What system or storm did that last season, or was it the season before, that did the "sit & spin" and ravaged the Bahamas for a couple of days?

[cycloneye]

Out in fantasyland the 12Z GFS has this just sit and spin in the Bahamas for days.

What system or storm did that last season, or was it the season before, that did the "sit & spin" and ravaged the Bahamas for a couple of days?

Joaquin,in October 2015.