ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[gatorcane]

Out through 84 hours the Eastern CONUS cut-off low is slightly more north and there appears to be slightly more ridging north of the Caribbean. Also 97l is slightly slower than the 12Z.

[Alyono]

18Z MU quite a bit stronger than the 12Z

[USTropics]

Yea looks like tropical genesis in 3 days on the 18z GFS:

[gatorcane]

Ridge is all the way SW past Cuba on the 18Z but 97l is stronger so we shall see.

[Blown Away]

TAFB still not tagging 97L with "Possible Tropical Cyclone" through 72 hours... It appears the NHC is still sticking with southerly route through central Caribbean... Something to consider looking at the abrupt NE recurves...

[Hurricaneman]

ridge seems to be a little bit stronger and more west than 12z

[ThetaE]

Yeah, the 18z is stronger and slower with 97L. Also, it seems the cutoff low isn't digging as far south as it did in the 12z model.

[USTropics]

999mb at 102 hours, lowest pressure so far since the 06z run on the 24th:

[StormHunter72]

earl

[tarheelprogrammer]

Trend at 500mb:

[Alyono]

strong cat 3 near Aruba in 144 hours

[gatorcane]

Cutoff low over Eastern CONUS is noticeably more north of 12Z with more ridging north of Caribbean hour 126

[Hurricaneman]

Cutoff low over Eastern CONUS is noticeably more north of 12Z with more ridging north of Caribbean hour 126

This is why I say anywhere from Pensacola to Bermuda has to monitor this carefully for shifts

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Following the ECMWF?
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=z500a&runtime=2016092518&fh=132&xpos=0&ypos=200

[SeGaBob]

Almost time for the turn.

[USTropics]

Following the ECMWF?
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=z500a&runtime=2016092518&fh=132&xpos=0&ypos=200

The position of 97L is currently close to the ECMWF, but the position of the cutoff low is definitely not (ECMWF has the cutoff low just above Tennessee at 140 hours, GFS has it by the Great Lakes and moving NE quickly)

18z GFS


12Z ECMWF

[SeGaBob]

Appears to be moving North at 150 hours.

[gatorcane]

Yep turning north at 162 hours and even more east than the 12Z. Looks like it is trending towards the EC.

Amazing how even a storm along the SA coastline can still recurve as the "magic door" looks to scoop up another one on this run of the GFS.

[Hurricaneman]

I have a feeling the ensembles are going to have 2 separate camps for the GFS and also could the cutoff low be eroding the ridge less in reality than the GFS is showing as it tends to break down ridges to quickly.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[USTropics]

Down to 937mb at the surface: