ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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TheAustinMan
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#4001 Postby TheAustinMan » Sun Aug 28, 2016 3:24 pm

We have a vortex data message! This one's already been decoded for easy reading:

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 20:18Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Mission Purpose: Investigate fourth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 08
A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 20:00:48Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 23°44'N 81°41'W (23.7333N 81.6833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 57 statute miles (93 km) to the S (174°) from Key West, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 21kts (~ 24.2mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles) to the WNW (296°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 41° at 15kts (From the NE at ~ 17.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles) to the WNW (297°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1009mb (29.80 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 27°C (81°F) at a pressure alt. of 306m (1,004ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 26°C (79°F) at a pressure alt. of 303m (994ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 24°C (75°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 29°C (84°F)
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb, 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 1,000 feet
Maximum Flight Level Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 29kts (~ 33.4mph) which was observed 33 nautical miles (38 statute miles) to the ESE (112°) from the flight level center at 20:10:16Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 27°C (81°F) which was observed 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles) to the WNW (297°) from the flight level center
Last edited by TheAustinMan on Sun Aug 28, 2016 3:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#4002 Postby slamdaddy » Sun Aug 28, 2016 3:25 pm

they did issue a vortex message
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Recon

#4003 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Aug 28, 2016 3:26 pm

000
URNT15 KWBC 282024
NOAA3 05EEA INVEST HDOB 20 20160828
201430 2349N 08107W 9601 00451 0105 +230 +223 166027 028 033 000 00
201500 2351N 08107W 9591 00457 0106 +230 +221 163027 028 033 000 00
201530 2353N 08107W 9575 00477 0107 +229 +217 161027 028 032 000 00
201600 2355N 08107W 9586 00466 0106 +230 +220 161026 027 031 000 00
201630 2357N 08107W 9606 00449 0108 +232 +219 161025 026 030 000 00
201700 2359N 08107W 9604 00450 0105 +232 +220 162026 027 027 000 00
201730 2401N 08107W 9598 00453 0104 +232 +219 162026 027 030 000 00
201800 2403N 08107W 9596 00454 0103 +236 +219 163027 029 033 000 00
201830 2405N 08107W 9594 00456 0103 +236 +219 157027 028 033 000 00
201900 2407N 08107W 9595 00456 0105 +235 +220 156027 027 032 000 00
201930 2409N 08107W 9597 00454 0106 +234 +221 152027 027 033 000 00
202000 2411N 08107W 9624 00429 0106 +236 +226 154026 027 032 000 00
202030 2414N 08107W 9747 00317 0105 +244 +232 155026 027 032 000 00
202100 2416N 08107W 9746 00318 0103 +245 +232 151027 027 031 000 00
202130 2418N 08107W 9744 00320 0104 +246 +235 146027 027 031 000 00
202200 2420N 08107W 9747 00320 0105 +246 +231 141028 028 031 000 00
202230 2422N 08107W 9748 00319 0105 +247 +230 140029 029 031 000 00
202300 2424N 08107W 9744 00321 0105 +247 +233 138026 028 030 001 03
202330 2425N 08108W 9751 00317 0104 +248 +229 132026 028 020 003 03
202400 2425N 08110W 9752 00316 0105 +248 +231 132026 027 025 000 03
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#4004 Postby sponger » Sun Aug 28, 2016 3:26 pm

20 mins! Place your bets!!!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#4005 Postby floridasun78 » Sun Aug 28, 2016 3:26 pm

look plane found ture center have pressure 1009 i think we td 9
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Recon

#4006 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Sun Aug 28, 2016 3:27 pm

URNT12 KWBC 282018
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 28/20:00:48Z
B. 23 deg 44 min N
081 deg 41 min W
C. NA
D. 21 kt
E. 296 deg 25 nm
F. 041 deg 15 kt
G. 297 deg 26 nm
H. EXTRAP 1009 mb
I. 27 C / 306 m
J. 26 C / 303 m
K. 24 C / 29 C
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / NA
O. .01 / 2 nm
P. NOAA3 05EEA INVEST OB 08
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1000FT
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND AND MAX FL WIND 29 KT 112 / 33 NM 20:10:16Z
MAX FL TEMP 27 C 297 / 26 NM FROM FL CNTR
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#4007 Postby robbielyn » Sun Aug 28, 2016 3:27 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
LSU2001 wrote:
galaxy401 wrote:Hurricane Anita in 1977 became a five before hitting Mexico.


bob rulz,
The gulf can spin up some monsters if the upper air conditions are good. There is no shortage of hot water to fuel the storms. However, the other variables are what normally limits development not the heat content or size of the gulf.
Tim


however this will be passing over the gulf loop which has the highest heat content.

what good is heat if you have sheer and dry air at the midlevels? There is a reason gfs and euro are giving it weak intensity.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#4008 Postby NDG » Sun Aug 28, 2016 3:28 pm

Vortex means upgrade at 5 pm most likely.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#4009 Postby floridasun78 » Sun Aug 28, 2016 3:28 pm

their put were center at on google earth with circle with pressure of 1009 in it
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#4010 Postby Hammy » Sun Aug 28, 2016 3:28 pm

NDG wrote:Vortex means upgrade at 5 pm most likely.


Not necessarily, I've seen a VDM numerous times without one, especially if the winds are fairly weak still.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#4011 Postby NDG » Sun Aug 28, 2016 3:29 pm

BTW, throw away those 18z model runs, they were started too far north & west of actual LLC.
Last edited by NDG on Sun Aug 28, 2016 3:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#4012 Postby StormHunter72 » Sun Aug 28, 2016 3:29 pm

Not stacked yet
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#4013 Postby Nimbus » Sun Aug 28, 2016 3:30 pm

lowest pressure is 1009(.4)?
No real need for an upgrade at 5PM IMO.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#4014 Postby floridasun78 » Sun Aug 28, 2016 3:31 pm

the center bit north of cuba coast north of matanzas cuba
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#4015 Postby LSU2001 » Sun Aug 28, 2016 3:31 pm

robbielyn wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
LSU2001 wrote:
bob rulz,
The gulf can spin up some monsters if the upper air conditions are good. There is no shortage of hot water to fuel the storms. However, the other variables are what normally limits development not the heat content or size of the gulf.
Tim


however this will be passing over the gulf loop which has the highest heat content.

what good is heat if you have sheer and dry air at the midlevels? There is a reason gfs and euro are giving it weak intensity.


I have seen some pretty potent systems develop despite fighting off shear and dry air. This time of year it is very foolish to write off any system in the gulf, esp. with inconsistent models.
JMHO,
TIm
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#4016 Postby Hammy » Sun Aug 28, 2016 3:31 pm

NDG wrote:BTW, throw away those 18z model runs, they were started too far north & west of actual LLC.


Since we officially have an LLC now for the models to initialize, should the 00z ones have a higher likelihood of being accurate than the last week or so?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#4017 Postby NDG » Sun Aug 28, 2016 3:31 pm

Hammy wrote:
NDG wrote:Vortex means upgrade at 5 pm most likely.


Not necessarily, I've seen a VDM numerous times without one, especially if the winds are fairly weak still.


Hammy, every time you try to prove me wrong is a fail, but I respect your opinion :)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#4018 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Sun Aug 28, 2016 3:31 pm

Sorry in advance if I am wrong but isn't a TD declared storm only needing a closed circulation that is well defined and convection that the system is firing off?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#4019 Postby tropicwatch » Sun Aug 28, 2016 3:31 pm

Afternoon showers are starting to pop over the everglades which should help diminish dry air.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#4020 Postby floridasun78 » Sun Aug 28, 2016 3:32 pm

Nimbus wrote:lowest pressure is 1009(.4)?
No real need for an upgrade at 5PM IMO.

plane put were low at their report pressure of 1009
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