ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[StormHunter72]

With the llc being further south and heading a little south of due west I wonder how this will effect the eventual track? I think the current models were initiated north of it's current location and the initial direction was west or wnw.

I hate to see a storm entering the gulf with a WSW heading. To me this means a more west eventual landfall than is usually predicted. I don't know how it will affect this storms path but usually when a storm moves through the straits and does the due west or WSW track the north turn seems to always come later than forecast and leads to a more western landfall.
JMHO,
TIm

That's my concern as well.

panhandle to big bend is what models are showing

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through 4:34pm EDT

Visible satellite at 4:30pm EDT:


Infrared satellite at 4:31pm EDT:

[SunnyThoughts]

With the llc being further south and heading a little south of due west I wonder how this will effect the eventual track? I think the current models were initiated north of it's current location and the initial direction was west or wnw.

I hate to see a storm entering the gulf with a WSW heading. To me this means a more west eventual landfall than is usually predicted. I don't know how it will affect this storms path but usually when a storm moves through the straits and does the due west or WSW track the north turn seems to always come later than forecast and leads to a more western landfall.
JMHO,
TIm

That's my concern as well.

Concerns me too, but we get what we get. It's been a long few days to this point...hopefully soon the majority of the models come into allignment and we know what we are going to be dealing with at landfall, as well as landfall location. Good luck everybody.

[floridasun78]

what long Discussion about 99l now we talk about td9 this could longest Discussion on storm2k long time

[SeGaBob]

I wonder which model they'll get their track from.

[MetroMike]

We can put the speculation to bed. Hope that now we can finally get some resolution to the model wars and wishy washy outcomes.

[SouthDadeFish]

194 pages of discussion later and 99L is now a TC. I feel like we all collectively just gave birth to a baby

I do not envy the NHC's job of having to forecast this system now. Yikes. The biggest question is how much will the wind shear relax?

[tropicwatch]

Going for another center fix, maybe looking to give a direction of travel for the first advisory.

[galaxy401]

After tracking this for over a week it finally got upgraded! So which will become Hermine first? This one or TD8?

[Tireman4]

I hate to see a storm entering the gulf with a WSW heading. To me this means a more west eventual landfall than is usually predicted. I don't know how it will affect this storms path but usually when a storm moves through the straits and does the due west or WSW track the north turn seems to always come later than forecast and leads to a more western landfall.
JMHO,
TIm

That's my concern as well.

panhandle to big bend is what models are showing

Remember, the models were trying to go off of a non closed low. I am not sure where track would be now, but remember, ( I think) that is why the models had so many variations to it. We will have to wait and see when all the information is ingested into all the models.

[KWT]

I wonder which model they'll get their track from.

Broadly most do the same thing but small differences can make big differences to locations and track.

I suppose they will follow the consensus.

[NDG]

Finally, it only took 195 pages, this has to be a record, even more including the model pages.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KWBC 282044
NOAA3 05EEA INVEST HDOB 22 20160828
203430 2354N 08135W 9811 00252 0096 +248 +235 127018 019 023 001 03
203500 2352N 08136W 9811 00250 0095 +248 +239 129019 020 026 000 00
203530 2351N 08138W 9839 00224 0092 +251 +238 129020 020 028 000 00
203600 2349N 08139W 9839 00222 0089 +251 +240 127018 020 030 001 00
203630 2348N 08140W 9839 00222 0089 +251 +239 126020 021 029 000 03
203700 2347N 08142W 9836 00226 0088 +257 +247 138013 018 029 001 00
203730 2346N 08143W 9842 00218 0085 +264 +249 150011 012 021 000 00
203800 2345N 08145W 9806 00254 0088 +264 +245 105005 007 019 000 00
203830 2343N 08147W 9776 00276 0087 +262 +244 070002 003 019 000 00
203900 2342N 08147W 9770 00285 0088 +262 +239 303001 002 016 000 03
203930 2340N 08149W 9770 00283 0088 +261 +239 280001 002 019 000 03
204000 2339N 08150W 9770 00285 0088 +261 +241 004001 002 019 000 00
204030 2338N 08152W 9769 00288 0089 +261 +244 054003 004 018 000 00
204100 2337N 08154W 9770 00285 0089 +261 +245 054004 004 017 000 00
204130 2336N 08155W 9769 00286 0089 +259 +248 033006 008 022 000 00
204200 2335N 08157W 9770 00284 0088 +261 +247 009007 008 027 002 00
204230 2334N 08159W 9770 00285 0088 +263 +247 353008 009 027 003 00
204300 2333N 08200W 9770 00286 0089 +265 +245 331007 007 024 001 00
204330 2331N 08202W 9770 00286 0089 +266 +243 327005 006 020 000 00
204400 2330N 08203W 9743 00309 0089 +264 +241 323006 006 018 000 00

[Tireman4]

Finally, it only took 195 pages, this has to be a record, even more including the model pages.

Agreed. I have never seen this much discussion over one invest. Well, that is a good thing. We all love to be here.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS...
...EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.7N 81.7W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NE OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM S OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine
was located by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 23.7
North, longitude 81.7 West. The depression is moving toward the
west near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue
through tonight. On the forecast track, the depression will be
moving away from the Florida Keys and into the Gulf of Mexico
overnight. A turn toward the west-northwest and a decrease in
forward speed are expected on Monday followed by a turn toward the
northwest on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on Monday.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft was 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 1 to 4 inches over the southern half of the Florida
peninsula and the Florida Keys through Wednesday. Isolated maximum
amounts of 6 inches are possible over coastal areas of southern
Florida and the Keys. This rainfall may cause flooding and flash
flooding.

WIND: Gusts to tropical storm force are possible in a few squalls
in the lower Florida Keys through tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan



TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the area of
low pressure located in the Florida Straits now has a well-defined
center. Satellite imagery shows a significant increase in the
convective organization today, and as a result the system is now
classified as a tropical cyclone. The initial intensity is set to
30 kt based on the highest believable wind data from the aircraft,
which reported a central pressure of 1009 mb.

The depression will be moving through a marginal environment for
intensification during the next day or so, with vertical shear of
15 to 20 kt. As a result only slow strengthening is expected in
the short term. Later on, the environment may improve a little as
the shear is forecast to decrease somewhat and become
southwesterly, which should allow for a little more strengthening.
However, there are mixed signals in the model guidance, with the
ECMWF now showing the cyclone dissipating in the Gulf, while the
GFS delays development until 4-5 days. Much of the tropical
cyclone guidance is more aggressive. Given this uncertainty, the
NHC intensity forecast is quite conservative and shows the system
peaking at 45 kt, below all the explicit intensity guidance in
consideration of the negative signal from the ECMWF. Needless to
say, the confidence in the intensity forecast is even lower than
usual for this system.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 270/09 given the recent
formation of the center. The cyclone will be steered in the short
range by a mid-level ridge centered over the southeastern United
States. This ridge will weaken in 2-3 days, which will cause the
cyclone to slow down and turn northward during this time. Late in
the period a northeastward acceleration is expected ahead of an
approaching mid-latitude trough. There is reasonable agreement in
the track of the cyclone in the global model guidance, although
there is a fair bit of along-track spread late in the period. The
NHC forecast is close to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF through
day 4 and is a little faster than the GFS and GEFS ensemble mean at
day 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 23.7N 81.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 23.9N 83.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 24.3N 85.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 24.6N 86.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 25.1N 87.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 31/1800Z 26.8N 87.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 01/1800Z 29.0N 84.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 02/1800Z 31.0N 80.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[jason1912]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/769957398312325120

[LSU2001]

And if this one follows the normal pattern on S2K, we will continue to have model wars for the next few days lol

[SouthDadeFish]

Convection is still highly asymmetric, but good enough to qualify as a TC:

[stormhunter7]

Advisory coming out now. Max wind forecast 45kts

[stormhunter7]

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 81.7W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 81.7W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 23.9N 83.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 24.3N 85.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 24.6N 86.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 25.1N 87.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 26.8N 87.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 29.0N 84.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 31.0N 80.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.7N 81.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z