ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Portastorm]

After viewing the projected NHC path, Storm 2K moderators are ordering extra coffee supplies for Monday anticipating the Monday night series of posts here of "it's turning NW" or "OMG ... it's not turning yet!"

[LSU2001]

portastorm,
better order some cases of Redbull as well. I have a feeling this one will be more contrary than ever as we get to monday night and tuesday lol
Tim

[davidiowx]

After viewing the projected NHC path, Storm 2K moderators are ordering extra coffee supplies for Monday anticipating the Monday night series of posts here of "it's turning NW" or "OMG ... it's not turning yet!"

I wonder how much that path will change once the new data is put into the models...

[SoupBone]

I am still doubting that big hook north and east. I will wait for the next few model runs now that we have a center to see what they say.
TIm

I don't. If there's been one thing consistent over a few days, it's been that hook.

[PTrackerLA]

Funny how that one run of the 12z Euro lack of development is giving them pause after it pretty much started up the chances of this developing when it was going for a hurricane again yesterday .

[Tireman4]

After viewing the projected NHC path, Storm 2K moderators are ordering extra coffee supplies for Monday anticipating the Monday night series of posts here of "it's turning NW" or "OMG ... it's not turning yet!"

And some moderators are stocking up the Grey Goose for this Winter in Texas.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Darnit, I was out on a call and missed the remumber. At any rate, as a poster said earlier, this seems to be a case of go big (HWRF) or go home (ECM).

[LSU2001]

I am still doubting that big hook north and east. I will wait for the next few model runs now that we have a center to see what they say.
TIm

I don't. If there's been one thing consistent over a few days, it's been that hook.

I guess I have watched far too many forecast tracks start out with a huge hook like that only to change a day or so later. This time of year, that would be a pretty rare event were it to actually verify.

[johngaltfla]

Funny how that one run of the 12z Euro lack of development is giving them pause after it pretty much started up the chances of this developing when it was going for a hurricane again yesterday .

I don't know but if the HWRF turns out to be right all along, there is going to be one hell of a storm on this board.

[Frank P]

Tracking storms that make those hard turns like this TD is forecast is forecast too is always entertaining and stressful...

[tropicwatch]

I am still doubting that big hook north and east. I will wait for the next few model runs now that we have a center to see what they say.
TIm

I don't. If there's been one thing consistent over a few days, it's been that hook.

The plowing into south Florida was consistent for several days also. I don't trust the model tracks beyond 3 days for this one. Not until we start seeing more consistency and a consensus.

[Dean4Storms]

All the models were taking this out into the Gulf at higher pressures and some not even closed until well out into the Gulf, would think a deeper system would mean more UL steering than lower levels with what the models have been forecasting.

[SeGaBob]

I hope it comes over this way...we need the rain.

[Tireman4]

After viewing the projected NHC path, Storm 2K moderators are ordering extra coffee supplies for Monday anticipating the Monday night series of posts here of "it's turning NW" or "OMG ... it's not turning yet!"

You forgot the most famous phrase of all..." I see an eye" LOL

[jlauderdal]

Funny how that one run of the 12z Euro lack of development is giving them pause after it pretty much started up the chances of this developing when it was going for a hurricane again yesterday .

I don't know but if the HWRF turns out to be right all along, there is going to be one hell of a storm on this board.

i dont think any model can claim a win based on what we have seen...lets see how this plays out..remnent low in the gulf wouldn't surprise me

[sponger]

After viewing the projected NHC path, Storm 2K moderators are ordering extra coffee supplies for Monday anticipating the Monday night series of posts here of "it's turning NW" or "OMG ... it's not turning yet!"

Always a great time!

[JtSmarts]

The next big question; is this Ian or Hermine?

Also it's been a long time since we consistently had over 800 users on s2k, WOW.

[AdamFirst]

Looking like this will be too far south to be a significant rainmaker for South Florida as initially projected unless convection builds northward. Maybe if the turn back east happens it can bring moisture to the state again.

[GeneratorPower]

This ECMWF problem is really troubling. That was the best model by far until this year. It was really awesome. Now they broke it. Bad. It's so inconsistent as to be laughable. But that's not funny. We needed that model. Badly.

We are facing the remainder of 2016 without being able to trust our most dependable model. I believe forecast accuracy will suffer. Not a good thing with these difficult track forecasts.

[drezee]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

OK, now that i have that out of the way...let me get to my observations and thoughts:

I believe that we are about to see something rare today, live visible rapid scan cyclogenesis. I think that 99L is going to be classifed within 36 hours. Note a few things:
1. You have very high CAPEs now and two hot tower regions about to converge.
2. Shear is there, but not enough to stop development now
3. Natural surface convergence and lift are about to take hold between FL and Cuba

I think the following is going to happen:
1. You cannot see it on the sat, but a gravity wave is heading NW toward the forming LLC near the tip of the S most tower
2. The tower will continue to grow NW almost like an outflow boundary toward the center
3. Once it gets there, a new tower should form very near the new LLC in the SE quad
4. We will see strong inflow from the W to SE into the new tower
5. It will collapse and pulse a couple of times before it fires for good
6. I believe that 99L will be classified and be at least a moderate TS in 48 hours

I typically do not post this much, but feel compelled to give my thoughts.

Everything is still holding to what I posted yesterday...it was classified 34 hours after my post said 36 hours...The shear needs to stick around and the MLC needs to head NNW to keep this thing weak...fingers crossed for both.