ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AdamFirst]

The next big question; is this Ian or Hermine?

TD 8 will be classified Hermine if it reaches TS status first. If not, then TD 9 will be.

[BucMan2]

Quite a huge cone for TD 9 at this time- how big do we anticipate the storm to be( size ). Are they zeroed in on big bend area or is the possibility to further down the coast ?

[LSU2001]

I'm putting my money on Hermine.
Tim

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KWBC 282104
NOAA3 05EEA INVEST HDOB 24 20160828
205430 2327N 08217W 9743 00311 0090 +265 +239 323008 008 016 000 00
205500 2327N 08215W 9743 00311 0089 +265 +243 321008 008 017 000 00
205530 2327N 08213W 9743 00312 0089 +264 +241 320007 007 016 000 00
205600 2327N 08211W 9744 00308 0088 +264 +241 313009 009 017 000 00
205630 2327N 08209W 9743 00309 0087 +264 +242 309008 008 017 000 00
205700 2327N 08207W 9744 00307 0086 +264 +240 293008 008 018 000 00
205730 2327N 08204W 9743 00309 0087 +264 +243 284008 008 019 000 00
205800 2327N 08202W 9746 00304 0086 +264 +243 271009 009 021 000 00
205830 2327N 08200W 9743 00308 0086 +262 +245 254009 010 028 002 00
205900 2327N 08158W 9743 00307 0085 +261 +247 237009 010 024 010 00
205930 2327N 08156W 9743 00306 0085 +260 +251 218009 011 024 008 00
210000 2327N 08154W 9743 00308 0085 +259 +243 192010 011 028 001 00
210030 2328N 08152W 9746 00305 0086 +259 +244 178012 014 021 003 03
210100 2329N 08151W 9745 00304 0085 +257 +245 186012 013 024 001 00
210130 2331N 08150W 9745 00304 0084 +257 +245 181012 013 027 001 03
210200 2333N 08150W 9743 00309 0086 +255 +247 168007 010 028 002 00
210230 2335N 08150W 9745 00306 0086 +259 +238 127005 005 023 001 00
210300 2337N 08150W 9746 00305 0086 +258 +241 099005 006 025 000 00
210330 2338N 08152W 9747 00303 0085 +259 +245 087005 006 024 000 03
210400 2338N 08154W 9744 00304 0083 +259 +244 072004 005 020 000 00

[Frank P]

New convection starting to fire off just SE and near the center of TD 9

[johngaltfla]

After viewing the projected NHC path, Storm 2K moderators are ordering extra coffee supplies for Monday anticipating the Monday night series of posts here of "it's turning NW" or "OMG ... it's not turning yet!"

You forgot the most famous phrase of all..." I see an eye" LOL

Did you see the eye wobble? I saw it weeble?

Man this storm has been a pain in the....

[pcolaman]

Eye guys , been a long long time since I have logged into the post pages. Looks like things have gotten active now and an still alot of season left. Time for some more crazy model runs with the windshield wipers going on. Now that center has been established we should see some pretty good forcast in direction and intensity. Good to see alot of the long term members still here..

[Ptarmigan]

Wow, this tropical wave we have been tracking is now a tropical depression.

[drewschmaltz]

I've ran some unconventional analysis and I'm absolutely certain that MLC and LLC will stack when Discussion page count > Model page count.

Some say an LLC is forming under the MLC, but it looks like we still have about 2 pages to go.

No model did well? Are you SURE? I rest my case and won't mention it again.

[stormhunter7]

new dropsonde fix is sw of last fix. this is moving sw instead of the 270 west.

[tropicwatch]

Quite a huge cone for TD 9 at this time- how big do we anticipate the storm to be( size ). Are they zeroed in on big bend area or is the possibility to further down the coast ?

That is how uncertain of the track they are after Wednesday.

[psyclone]

One thing I've observed over the years is that the first forecast track seems more prone to significant revisions...perhaps this is a result of a newly formed storm just getting established and models maybe latching onto a legit center. at any rate interesting times are ahead.

[psyclone]

Quite a huge cone for TD 9 at this time- how big do we anticipate the storm to be( size ). Are they zeroed in on big bend area or is the possibility to further down the coast ?

That is how uncertain of the track they are after Wednesday.

it's the standard error cone. it doesn't change based upon uncertainty

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KWBC 282114
NOAA3 05EEA INVEST HDOB 25 20160828
210430 2338N 08156W 9745 00303 0082 +262 +235 061004 004 019 000 00
210500 2338N 08158W 9745 00304 0083 +262 +235 039003 004 017 000 00
210530 2338N 08200W 9745 00304 0083 +261 +236 015004 004 018 000 00
210600 2338N 08202W 9744 00304 0084 +262 +237 012005 006 018 000 00
210630 2338N 08204W 9747 00301 0083 +263 +235 032008 009 017 000 00
210700 2338N 08206W 9743 00305 0082 +263 +235 034010 010 017 000 03
210730 2339N 08207W 9744 00303 0082 +263 +235 033010 011 014 008 03
210800 2340N 08205W 9746 00301 0081 +264 +233 025011 011 /// /// 03
210830 2339N 08204W 9749 00301 0084 +262 +236 028011 011 018 000 00
210900 2338N 08202W 9745 00304 0084 +264 +234 009007 008 017 000 00
210930 2336N 08201W 9745 00305 0084 +262 +242 348006 007 015 000 03
211000 2335N 08159W 9744 00306 0084 +261 +242 342006 007 019 000 03
211030 2336N 08157W 9744 00308 0087 +260 +242 051004 006 017 000 00
211100 2336N 08155W 9747 00305 0087 +259 +241 089007 008 022 000 00
211130 2336N 08153W 9747 00304 0086 +258 +244 102006 007 023 000 00
211200 2337N 08151W 9789 00270 0088 +258 +245 116009 011 028 001 03
211230 2339N 08151W 9762 00290 0087 +257 +248 120012 013 025 005 00
211300 2341N 08151W 9760 00295 0088 +257 +245 132008 009 030 003 00
211330 2343N 08151W 9759 00298 0090 +260 +244 075007 009 029 000 03
211400 2345N 08152W 9761 00292 0087 +261 +244 093008 009 013 000 00

[Blinhart]

With this system further south and starting to wrap around I will not be surprised if Recon finds enough TS force winds to classify this as a TS by the next update and then have to change the whole cone right away. I don't think it will bend as much as they say it will.

[Hurricane_Luis]

TD 8 will become Hermine. TD 9 will become Ian. Regardless of what system reaches Tropical Storm winds first. I think that is how it works.

[Frank P]

visible rapid scan, my fav sat loop, showing a due west motion...here's the link .. speed it up and zoom where the center is... set your width at 900 and height at 1500 for best viewing.. need at least 50 loops or more...

https://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/ind ... eight=1550

[GeneratorPower]

Quite a huge cone for TD 9 at this time- how big do we anticipate the storm to be( size ). Are they zeroed in on big bend area or is the possibility to further down the coast ?

That is how uncertain of the track they are after Wednesday.

Nope. I won't do it but prepare to have your hat handed to you by the experts here.

[Ptarmigan]

One thing I've observed over the years is that the first forecast track seems more prone to significant revisions...perhaps this is a result of a newly formed storm just getting established and models maybe latching onto a legit center. at any rate interesting times are ahead.

I notice that too. The initial forecast changes greatly. I remember with Katrina it was forecasted to hit the west coast of Florida when it first formed.

Hurricane Katrina Advisory Archive
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/KATRINA.shtml?

Forecast Verification-Major Hurricane Katrina
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/ ... rification

[Hurricane Andrew]

First call, I'd say slow to no strengthening over 24 hours, followed by moderate intensification from 24 to 72 hours, than a fairly rapid ramp up until landfall. At this point, anywhere from TX/LA border to Tampa is still in the game IMO. As for landfall intensity, depending on how quickly it gets its act together, I would say between 60 and 100 miles per hour, probably on the lower end of that. SHIPS guidance keeps a moderate amount of shear on the system, which could be partially lffset by SSTs between 29 and 30 degrees C. Interestingly enough, the SHIPS guidance nearly stalls the storm in the 2-4 day range. If that happens, the intensity could be higher than the current suggustion. A lot remains to be seen, especially how quickly this storm organizes over the 24-48 hour period.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.