ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Frank P]

Rapid scan showing a big blow up of convection near and just S of center.. still looks to be moving west to me...

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

Went on twc website for somethint unrelated and saw this headline! Wow this is why i said it was the little engine that could.

[sponger]

I believe we can now see the LLC...just to the nw of the new convective burst. Until the LLC Is firmly relocated under the convection, I don't expect much in the way of Intensification.


https://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/ind ... eight=1500

That high resolution scan is awesome!!!

[Tireman4]

Went on twc website for somethint unrelated and saw this headline! Wow this is why i said it was the little engine that could.

What headline?

[JaxGator]

Wow, see we have TD 9 now. Amazing how quick it took to have 3 TCs (and not to mention how close they are to each other). Plus major Hurricane Gaston. I was wondering though. Rather than a trough, wouldn't a ridge moving east pull TD 9/which name it gets on the path the NHC shows at the moment?

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KWBC 282154
NOAA3 05EEA INVEST HDOB 29 20160828
214430 2326N 08150W 9478 00550 0087 +239 +238 176013 014 033 008 03
214500 2327N 08148W 9541 00491 0087 +241 +237 176012 012 025 000 00
214530 2328N 08146W 9574 00466 0090 +248 +229 157011 011 024 000 00
214600 2328N 08144W 9575 00463 0088 +255 +215 156011 012 025 000 03
214630 2328N 08142W 9575 00465 0090 +254 +219 160012 013 024 000 00
214700 2329N 08140W 9575 00467 0093 +252 +220 152011 012 025 000 00
214730 2329N 08138W 9575 00465 0091 +255 +212 144012 013 025 000 00
214800 2329N 08136W 9574 00467 0092 +250 +209 155014 014 026 000 00
214830 2329N 08134W 9574 00467 0092 +248 +206 141014 015 026 000 00
214900 2329N 08132W 9575 00464 0091 +244 +206 142015 015 026 000 00
214930 2329N 08130W 9575 00462 0090 +240 +207 148015 015 027 000 00
215000 2330N 08128W 9575 00466 0094 +231 +214 161015 015 025 000 00
215030 2330N 08126W 9574 00467 0097 +226 +219 169017 018 025 000 00
215100 2330N 08124W 9575 00467 0097 +226 +221 170018 018 023 000 00
215130 2330N 08122W 9574 00468 0098 +228 +220 166016 017 023 000 00
215200 2330N 08120W 9574 00467 0097 +232 +214 165017 017 023 000 00
215230 2330N 08118W 9575 00466 0095 +230 +214 170018 018 022 000 03
215300 2332N 08118W 9575 00465 0095 +226 +217 169019 020 026 000 00
215330 2334N 08118W 9574 00468 0097 +227 +218 164020 020 024 001 00
215400 2336N 08118W 9575 00466 0095 +229 +214 162020 021 025 000 00

[psyclone]

we've got a long ways to go for this to become anything of consequence...but the raw materials are certainly there should things upstairs cooperate. the conservative intensity guidance is appropriate at this point...but yikes at the potential..

[Frank P]

I believe we can now see the LLC...just to the nw of the new convective burst. Until the LLC Is firmly relocated under the convection, I don't expect much in the way of Intensification.


https://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/ind ... eight=1500

That high resolution scan is awesome!!!

Yes it is... totally

[jasons2k]

Yeah been saying all week nothing significant until Fl straits.... I will say I didn't expect the ridge to break down this week so quickly. I was thinking a LA/Mobile storm but it looks like Cedar Key area now.

[whatacane]

HWFI has this as a cat 5 on intesinty? does history repeat its self like the hurricane that hit Galveston?

[Tireman4]

Yeah been saying all week nothing significant until Fl straits.... I will say I didn't expect the ridge to break down this week so quickly. I was thinking a LA/Mobile storm but it looks like Cedar Key area now.

It is still early in the ballgame. Goodness knows with this disturbance, anything can happen. LOL

[Hurricane Andrew]

I believe we can now see the LLC...just to the nw of the new convective burst. Until the LLC Is firmly relocated under the convection, I don't expect much in the way of Intensification.


https://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/ind ... eight=1500

That high resolution scan is awesome!!!

Yes it is... totally

One image every minute. You can see the storms bubbling and churning. It is so beautiful.

[Aric Dunn]

You know whats better than rapid scan ? Radar lol

[Tireman4]

HWFI has this as a cat 5 on intesinty? does history repeat its self like the hurricane that hit Galveston?

You mean the 1900 Storm? Gosh I sure hope not. That was a doozy. It dramatically changed the landscape of municipal government and displaced Galveston as a major player in Texas and the US ( as far as population)

[gatorcane]

GFS is stronger this run, check models thread

[Aric Dunn]

Also the convection is on the se side center is exposed slightly to nw

[whatacane]

HWFI has this as a cat 5 on intesinty? does history repeat its self like the hurricane that hit Galveston?

You mean the 1900 Storm? Gosh I sure hope not. That was a doozy. It dramatically changed the landscape of municipal government and displaced Galveston as a major player in Texas and the US ( as far as population)

Yes the 1900 storm. seems there are a lot of big storms that can intensify and come from this area

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KWBC 282204
NOAA3 05EEA INVEST HDOB 30 20160828
215430 2338N 08118W 9575 00465 0095 +232 +210 163021 022 026 000 00
215500 2340N 08118W 9575 00466 0095 +237 +206 163020 020 025 001 00
215530 2342N 08118W 9575 00467 0096 +236 +207 162020 020 025 000 00
215600 2344N 08118W 9575 00467 0095 +236 +211 153020 021 026 000 00
215630 2346N 08118W 9575 00467 0096 +233 +216 149021 021 026 000 00
215700 2348N 08118W 9575 00468 0097 +233 +218 144021 022 025 000 00
215730 2350N 08118W 9575 00469 0098 +234 +214 144022 022 024 000 00
215800 2352N 08117W 9575 00464 0095 +232 +216 144021 021 024 000 03
215830 2352N 08116W 9575 00465 0094 +235 +213 143020 020 /// /// 03
215900 2350N 08115W 9579 00462 0095 +233 +215 145020 020 024 000 00
215930 2349N 08116W 9575 00467 0097 +231 +218 146019 019 024 000 00
220000 2347N 08116W 9575 00468 0098 +231 +218 149019 019 025 000 00
220030 2345N 08116W 9575 00469 0098 +230 +218 151018 019 024 000 00
220100 2343N 08116W 9574 00470 0098 +232 +214 154017 018 022 001 00
220130 2342N 08116W 9575 00468 0097 +234 +210 155017 017 024 000 00
220200 2340N 08116W 9574 00468 0097 +231 +209 163019 020 026 000 00
220230 2338N 08117W 9575 00465 0095 +232 +208 162020 020 026 000 00
220300 2337N 08118W 9575 00464 0095 +230 +214 161020 021 026 000 03
220330 2335N 08119W 9575 00465 0095 +228 +216 162020 020 025 000 03
220400 2336N 08121W 9575 00466 0094 +233 +210 160019 020 /// /// 03

[Frank P]

You know whats better than rapid scan ? Radar lol

Yeah but no radar in the middle of the Gulf.. what ya use then?

[weathermimmi]

I have been reading the boards and did not see anyone answer the question of what was causing all the models to take it right back over Florida? I remember Elena in 1985 that re curved twice?