ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Mission is over.



Next mission, from same NOAA plane, is scheduled to depart overnight at 12:30am EDT and arrive at around 1:30am EDT.

Code: Select all

FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 43
A. 29/0530Z, 1130Z
B. NOAA3 0608A CYCLONE
C. 29/0430Z
D. 25.0N 83.0W
E. 29/0500Z TO 29/1130Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

From: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/recon.php

Radar from today's mission:



Link: https://youtu.be/2cB-iE4GBtI
1:19pm EDT - 8:25pm EDT

[Stormcenter]

I don't think it looked like a TD yesterday but that's just me. Anyway I'm still not sold on anything about TD #9. IMO

NHC may have upgraded 99L a little too quickly. Perhaps they did it so they could initiate advisories and provide more warning for Florida? Wish I could be a fly on the wall in the NHC operations area. We've been issuing advisories for the past 9 days on it. The last 5 days have been the hardest. Getting easier now. I see TD Eight is getting the crap knocked out of it by shear. Was more of a TD yesterday than now. Ready for a day off. Maybe next weekend...

[stormreader]

I'll tell you, this system still doesn't look like much, and as for its course...it continues to move wsw. It's really not very far from the Yucatan Channel! Really wondering about the projected and timely north move. It's may be farther south and west than originally projected. In that case you might get an eventual WNW motion. Have to then see if trough is still able to turn it back northeast in that case. With the storm farther west, you might see a movement more toward the upper Texas or SW La coast. Feeling the influence of the trough, but too far west and south for a turn NE before landfall. Just a thought.

[otowntiger]

Yep. For all we know it could still dissipate. Shear has been and looks to be pretty relentless. I think that's the reason the NHC is keeping the intensity in check.

[stormhunter7]

Chuck whats your flight path/plan? Which way you headed?

[wxman57]

I don't think it looked like a TD yesterday but that's just me. Anyway I'm still not sold on anything about TD #9. IMO

NHC may have upgraded 99L a little too quickly. Perhaps they did it so they could initiate advisories and provide more warning for Florida? Wish I could be a fly on the wall in the NHC operations area. We've been issuing advisories for the past 9 days on it. The last 5 days have been the hardest. Getting easier now. I see TD Eight is getting the crap knocked out of it by shear. Was more of a TD yesterday than now. Ready for a day off. Maybe next weekend...

I was talking about TD 8 looking more like a TD yesterday with heavy convection over the center.

[HurriGuy]

NHC may have upgraded 99L a little too quickly. Perhaps they did it so they could initiate advisories and provide more warning for Florida? Wish I could be a fly on the wall in the NHC operations area. We've been issuing advisories for the past 9 days on it. The last 5 days have been the hardest. Getting easier now. I see TD Eight is getting the crap knocked out of it by shear. Was more of a TD yesterday than now. Ready for a day off. Maybe next weekend...

What are you making if it's movement? Could the circulation open back up? Seems like its going to scrape the coast at a minimum

[Rail Dawg]

Mods, new tag needed. "Amateur Hurricane Hunter" or something.

Shucks now you're going to make me blush!

Tell you what though I will try to choose flights this season that get us close to active storms.

It's cool to be able to see a "horizontal" visual angle on what's going on. Not radar but an actual visual from altitude.

Wonder if the real Hunters could do this more often? Post video?

[GeneratorPower]

I see I am not alone in confusing NINE and EIGHT.

[ronjon]

HWRF doesn't do much with intensity the next 24 hrs. Think It'll struggle till then. Synoptic pattern pretty locked in. Whatever it turns out to be will cross Florida in 3-4 days.

[wxman57]

NHC may have upgraded 99L a little too quickly. Perhaps they did it so they could initiate advisories and provide more warning for Florida? Wish I could be a fly on the wall in the NHC operations area. We've been issuing advisories for the past 9 days on it. The last 5 days have been the hardest. Getting easier now. I see TD Eight is getting the crap knocked out of it by shear. Was more of a TD yesterday than now. Ready for a day off. Maybe next weekend...

What are you making if it's movement? Could the circulation open back up? Seems like its going to scrape the coast at a minimum

I see nothing odd with its movement. Seems to be on the same heading - it's the squalls that are moving away from the weak LLC due to the westerly shear. Interesting that the ECMWF ensembles all are indicating weakening over the next 24hrs then strengthening on Wednesday.

[Portastorm]

It is getting pinched between 2 upper lows. One over the west Gulf that is moving to the east. The second one southwest of TD Eight

It's interesting. The globals a few days back progged that WGOM upper low to move west into Texas not east. In fact I think even as late as yesterday they showed that. But sure enough that ULL is moving east and the further west #9 goes, the more likely that ULL will rip it up (assuming the low maintains its identity).

Does make me wonder if there might be a surprise or two with the eventual track of #9 considering the models not having a good grip on the GOM upper features.

[Alyono]

getting BLASTED again by northerly shear

[Rail Dawg]

Chuck whats your flight path/plan? Which way you headed?

Cancun north towards the Big Bend.

We dodged a lot of boomers west of TD9 today. Unrelated to TD9 but you could tell there was a lot of instability.

Anyone here ever launch weather balloons? I did that for about 8 years and would love to see some sondes of what we saw today.

Good stuff!

Chuck

[ConvergenceZone]

I've always felt the cognitive dissonance of loving weather and wanting a storm to become the biggest baddest craziest thing that's has ever brewed and not wanting pain and suffering. 3 weeks ago I became a first time homeowner in central Florida. I have a wife, child and giant screened in porch. Even still I want this storm to become a monster and barrel down on us. Take out the land between us and the coast and just let it rip. At the same time I would never want this to happen. Seeing these feelings espoused on this forum is awkward. The posts about not wanting the storm to grow are a reminder of my sane self and I don't come here to be sane. Can we just say once and for all that none of us want anything bad to happen to anyone but that's not why we are here. We are here to track storms and not to figure out if they will dissipate but to predict if they will organize. It's taboo. It ain't right. But it's fun because nature is awesome.

This is the best explanation in words I've ever seen. I've felt the same exact way. I just didn't know how to put it to words. Your explanation is perfect!

[hipshot]

My brother lives in Virginia Beach so I was giving him a heads up about TD8, which I am sure he
has heard of, and I was pointing to this web site for better info. However, when I typed in just "www.storm2k.org" I got to
a page that I couldn't find the discussion pages like I see when I log in. Where does he need to go to get where I would like
him to be able to see and read all of the info that goes on here?

[stormhunter7]

Chuck whats your flight path/plan? Which way you headed?

Cancun north towards the Big Bend.

We dodged a lot of boomers west of TD9 today. Unrelated to TD9 but you could tell there was a lot of instability.

Anyone here ever launch weather balloons? I did that for about 8 years and would love to see some sondes of what we saw today.

Good stuff!

Chuck

Hope your in the right seat then. lol Gonna be interesting if you will see convection over the loop current.

[Frank P]

convection looks to be driving SW per the IR loops and some have even cross Cuba to its south side...

https://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/ind ... eight=4000

[Steve]

It is getting pinched between 2 upper lows. One over the west Gulf that is moving to the east. The second one southwest of TD Eight

It's interesting. The globals a few days back progged that WGOM upper low to move west into Texas not east. In fact I think even as late as yesterday they showed that. But sure enough that ULL is moving east and the further west #9 goes, the more likely that ULL will rip it up (assuming the low maintains its identity).

Does make me wonder if there might be a surprise or two with the eventual track of #9 considering the models not having a good grip on the GOM upper features.

I could be wrong, but there is a surface low plotted currently. Someone said the pressures are high, so it's relative. But one of the noaa offices has it backing SW. Who knows, and hopefully 9 doesn't decide to stall because you would have upper pattern reversal. In any event, this system plugs on. Could be an annoyance, could be trouble.

[artist]

Hope he joins us. When you go to the main page top right corner a box shows forums. Have him click there. I missed it the first time there, too. It is rather small.

My brother lives in Virginia Beach so I was giving him a heads up about TD8, which I am sure he
has heard of, and I was pointing to this web site for better info. However, when I typed in just "www.storm2k.org" I got to
a page that I couldn't find the discussion pages like I see when I log in. Where does he need to go to get where I would like
him to be able to see and read all of the info that goes on here?