ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[stormlover2013]

Boy that is A mess

[gatorcane]

Quite chaotic looking at this SAT loop - ULL approaching NE Florida, another disturbance approaching LA, outflow boundary moving offshore west coast of Florida, TD #8 in the upper-right-hand corner, and messy TD-9 with low-level and mid-level LLCs displaced.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[bamajammer4eva]

Ship report at 24.3/82.9 showing 1007.5 MB in GRLevel3

[Joe Snow]

Current Key Biscayne Radar:

[NDG]

Not necessarily, I've seen a VDM numerous times without one, especially if the winds are fairly weak still.

Hammy, every time you try to prove me wrong is a fail, but I respect your opinion

Looks like we're adding another to the list

Should we get better model output now that this has actually formed starting with the 00z-12z runs?

Hopefully, at least in the short term. Regarding intensity the NHC's official intensity forecast is now below the consensus.

[NDG]

Convection starting to refire near the LLC once again as usual during the night.

[MetroMike]

Another view of radar loop

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/noaaport/radar_flanim.gif

[indianforever]

Looks like it's about to track over the island

[weathermimmi]

can you point out where the llC is roughly located on that map

[SeGaBob]

I'm expecting that shift to the south at 11pm.

[GeneratorPower]

Looks like it's about to track over the island

Levi Cowan claims it will probably follow the coastline of Cuba due to frictional effects.

[BobHarlem]

Center is likely roughly 35-40 miles north of Havana offshore now. It's not moving inland, just shifting south a bit due to the convection being concentrated on the south due to land and northerly shear, it's making a run to escape from the shear now, unless the ULL follows along it'll be out of the worst of it tomorrow.

[JaxGator]

Convection starting to refire near the LLC once again as usual during the night.

[i mg]http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ndgarcia/ndgarcia155/WUNIDS_map%203_zpsjuqqkc4e.gif[/img]

To my ever learning eye, it looks the center will miss Cuba but come close.

[stormreader]

Looks like center is rolling along the north coast of Cuba heading just south of due west.

[Michele B]

Convection starting to refire near the LLC once again as usual during the night.

[i mg]http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ndgarcia/ndgarcia155/WUNIDS_map%203_zpsjuqqkc4e.gif[/img]

To my ever learning eye, it looks the center will miss Cuba but come close.

Me, too, Gator. Looks like it will "hug" the northern coast.

Question is, WHERE will it go then? Will it intensify to a TS or even a hurricane? And when (or if) does it make a turn toward the N, or NE? Or worse, NNE?

[tropicwatch]

I think the wsw movement might be more westerly now. We should know in a couple of hours.

[JaxGator]

Convection starting to refire near the LLC once again as usual during the night.

[im g]http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ndgarcia/ndgarcia155/WUNIDS_map%203_zpsjuqqkc4e.gif[/img]

To my ever learning eye, it looks the center will miss Cuba but come close.

Me, too, Gator. Looks like it will "hug" the northern coast.

Question is, WHERE will it go then? Will it intensify to a TS or even a hurricane? And when (or if) does it make a turn toward the N, or NE? Or worse, NNE?

That, is an excellent question," Wilbur Robinson (Meet The Robinsons). It's now heading into lower shear (per shear map) and the bad shear is heading north but there are lots of players in the game that will influence this thing (as Gatorcane mentioned on the previous page). The Gulf waters are around 90 and that's what you don't want for sure. Hope it doesn't get too strong (but it also depends on steering too). That is key.

[JaxGator]

This was the center earlier. Note TD 8 too.
https://scontent-ord1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/t3 ... 8778_o.jpg

[Dean4Storms]

The 18Z GFS has it moving WNW from about where it is now for a time before another bend back to the west. If this continues over night you would think it would play a role in the track down the road, whether it misses the break in the ridge and sits or gets turned back east further south would be the question.

[NDG]

I bet the 0z Euro will come back in stronger, 12z Euro did not made sense that it showed it to be so weak through Wednesday morning with such good UL winds it forecasts it to be, as so does the GFS.