ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[pgoss11]

Matthew just rakes the SC/NC coasts with this run. I would think strong tropical force winds with that proximity to the coast'

[FLpanhandle91]

Cat 5 just skirting the OBX. Beach erosion and surge could be devastating.

[tolakram]

[tarheelprogrammer]

18z GFS looks to have trended east and slower.

[ronjon]

Still some uncertainty 5-6 days out. We said that yesterday. It's like groundhog day around here.

[sphelps8681]

Is the Australian Model? Thanks for introducing this to us.. is it any good? Tell us about its accuracy.

This looks right over Florida!!!

[CrazyC83]

18Z GFS makes landfall around Buzzards Bay then near Boston as it starts to get caught in the upper troughs.

[MetroMike]

Is the Australian Model? Thanks for introducing this to us.. is it any good? Tell us about its accuracy.

This looks right over Florida!!!

Ok that is good for entertainment purposes only. Not going to take it at full value.

[fci]

Is the Australian Model? Thanks for introducing this to us.. is it any good? Tell us about its accuracy.

The Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator (ACCESS) weather models have been developed and tested by research staff from the Bureau's Research & Development Branch and are based on the UK Meteorological Office's Unified Model. ACCESS output is available in map form or as gridded data products.

The model is a hybrid and often out performs the other global models.

hope this isn't true, this could turn out bad for a lot of people.

There's a reason most of us have never seen this model before.

[p1nheadlarry]

Cat 5 just skirting the OBX. Beach erosion and surge could be devastating.

Just trying to think about what the GFS sees to support a hurricane that strong north of 30 degrees.

[CrazyC83]

Cat 5 just skirting the OBX. Beach erosion and surge could be devastating.

Just trying to think about what the GFS sees to support a hurricane that strong north of 30 degrees.

Maybe the size of the storm enlarges greatly or it gets caught in an area with no real shear interactions? The lowest pressure I know of in that region is 930mb.

[TheStormExpert]

According to the most recent GFS runs it seems the threat to Florida is decreasing.

[FLpanhandle91]

Cat 5 just skirting the OBX. Beach erosion and surge could be devastating.

Just trying to think about what the GFS sees to support a hurricane that strong north of 30 degrees.

I believe SST's around that area are very warm this year.

[JaxGator]

According to the most recent GFS runs it seems the threat to Florida is decreasing.

Maybe South Florida but it still looks to close enough for North-Central Florida for my liking.

[p1nheadlarry]

Cat 5 just skirting the OBX. Beach erosion and surge could be devastating.

Just trying to think about what the GFS sees to support a hurricane that strong north of 30 degrees.

I believe SST's around that area are very warm this year.

They are indeed, but outside of the Gulf Stream they're not terribly deep. How it leaves the Bahamas as a strong cyclone and strengthens even more with slightly cooler waters and lower TCHP values isn't adding up to me.

[centuryv58]

According to the most recent GFS runs it seems the threat to Florida is decreasing.

Maybe South Florida but it still looks to close enough for North-Central Florida for my liking.

Still too close and uncertain for me in SE FL. I'll have more confidence after tomorrow.

[SFLcane]

To many focus on landfall affects should be felt even in south Florida as Matthew passes to our east. How close is the question

[BobHarlem]

If the GFS Verifies, that's very good for Jamaica, they'll miss the worst of it, not so good for Haiti Cuba and the Bahamas though. Taking more than a week to reach the Outer Banks would make a lot of folks nervous.

[Rail Dawg]

I feel like I'm back in the 80's sometimes relying on grainy black and white satellite shots and ship reports.

This thing has been forecasted for more than 2 days to turn by now.

If in the am it is sitting still or making it's way west then the models... almost all of them.. were wrong.

Sometimes it's good to go back to the old ways of gut feelings and experience.

[sphelps8681]

This looks right over Florida!!!

Ok that is good for entertainment purposes only. Not going to take it at full value.

I am just trying to understand. The Euro and GFS have both forcasted a turn to the North. But from what I see that has not happened yet. So all of them forecast something going east of Florida and possibly up the coast to the Carolinas what makes this one only for entertainment purposes? Looks like they are all entertainment purposes at this time.