ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tropicwatch]

If it had only been one run with one or two models shifting west it would not concern me that much. Instead we have all models shifting west that does concern me.

[AutoPenalti]

I've already put half he shutters up. Tomorrow will be the remaining.

[AdamFirst]

Last rode out a hurricane in 2005 - Wilma. Northern eyewall clipped Port Saint Lucie.

If it gets close enough, dunno if we're gonna stay for this one. Category 2 or low end Category 3 I think we can take that chance.

This house is a newer one - made it through Frances and Jeanne fine.

[caneseddy]

 https://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/status/783015898177241089

[marionstorm]

If Matthew skirts the Florida coast or is just offshore would Marion County experience bad winds or would we be fine?

[Florida1118]

Due to the shape of the Florida coastline evacuation is going to be difficult if not impossible. I've sheltered in place rather than try to bug out at the last minute only to run out of gas in gridlock traffic. If Matthew is moving slowly in the Bahamas and there is an NHC forecast keeping the core winds offshore and I lived in a sturdy structure, why take a chance on the road unless you are in a flood prone area?

That's not the purpose of evacuation. Evacuations are for storm surge, and for weak buildings such as mobile homes. The whole point of evacuation is to remove those in areas that will be inundated by surge; many of those areas are not "flood prone" per say, as major hurricanes do not occur frequently to the area. Evacuate as ordered. Emergency Management agencies use a plethora of tools, in direct coordination with the National Hurricane Center and the National Weather Service. If you are not ordered to evacuate, do not do so unless you are in a weaker building, such as a mobile home; unnecessary evacuations are what clogs the roads, and people often still get impacted similarly (take Hurricane Charley, for example; many people evacuated Tampa to Orlando to "escape the wind", and still got impacted). Run from the water (evacuate from storm surge if ordered), hide from the wind (shelter in place if you are not ordered to evacuate).

[La Sirena]

Expect the NHC cone to shift a bit west at 5 pm. Although maybe not as much as you might expect in order to prevent the "windshield wiper effect". It will be interesting to see what the 12Z Euro ensembles show. I'm guessing probably something similar to the 00Z runs.

Yeah. I don't think they go crazy, but eastern Florida will probably be in the cone. Wouldn't be surprised to see "watches may be necessary on Tuesday" language added.

I think their biggest question mark is the Keys. Do you include them or not, given that it takes 2 days or so to fully evacuate the Keys? Because if you don't and the models continue to trend West...

We live in the lower Keys and have had this conversation a lot at our house. We've been almost entirely prepped to bug out when necessary. The window will be slim if they called an evacuation.

[Evil Jeremy]

Just because every model shifted west now, doesn't mean they won't shift back east later. Or they might go more west. Or south. This could end up with Matthew vacationing in Montenegro, who knows anymore. I'm sure the NHC will be patient with moving the cone over. A west shift at 5pm is assured, I could see it being maybe 60ish miles west, enough to get at least the eastern half of the peninsula in the cone. If the model trends hold, a more decent shift at 11pm.

[sponger]

Due to the shape of the Florida coastline evacuation is going to be difficult if not impossible. I've sheltered in place rather than try to bug out at the last minute only to run out of gas in gridlock traffic. If Matthew is moving slowly in the Bahamas and there is an NHC forecast keeping the core winds offshore and I lived in a sturdy structure, why take a chance on the road unless you are in a flood prone area?

That's not the purpose of evacuation. Evacuations are for storm surge, and for weak buildings such as mobile homes. The whole point of evacuation is to remove those in areas that will be inundated by surge; many of those areas are not "flood prone" per say, as major hurricanes do not occur frequently to the area. Evacuate as ordered. Emergency Management agencies use a plethora of tools, in direct coordination with the National Hurricane Center and the National Weather Service. If you are not ordered to evacuate, do not do so unless you are in a weaker building, such as a mobile home; unnecessary evacuations are what clogs the roads, and people often still get impacted similarly (take Hurricane Charley, for example; many people evacuated Tampa to Orlando to "escape the wind", and still got impacted). Run from the water (evacuate from storm surge if ordered), hide from the wind (shelter in place if you are not ordered to evacuate).

Floyd and Rita are good examples that the evacuation can be far worse than the storm.

[Mouton]

Last rode out a hurricane in 2005 - Wilma. Northern eyewall clipped Port Saint Lucie.

If it gets close enough, dunno if we're gonna stay for this one. Category 2 or low end Category 3 I think we can take that chance.

This house is a newer one - made it through Frances and Jeanne fine.

We are up in Nassau Cty 1/4 mile back from dunes and at the vortex of the Fla Ga boarder so we are not taking the chance....made reservations inland by 150 miles. Wednesday if things look a tad worse for us than now, putting up the shutters and we leave very early Friday...not trifling with a cat 4.

[WeatherOrKnot]

My grandmother lives 10 miles from the coast in central wpb (near pbi). She is panicking about getting her shutters put up. Should we go over and start putting them up now or wait it out a bit?

[Michele B]

Matthew's model runs this afternoon are making life miserable for emergency managers from Florida all the way up through the Carolina's. The headaches he potentially is going to cause make Floyd look like a walk in the park.

Remember how bad the evacuation was? Parking lot from Cocoa to Jax. After Andrew I said I would never stay for a 5, after Floyd I said I would never evacuate during daylight. 2AM is my departure time. It would take a direct from a 4 or 5 to initiate that one.

Agreed...And I've plotted a route out of here that keeps me off of the main highways.

Yeah, THAT'S the way to go! The interstates get completely crazy once evacs are issued. I've never had to evacuate. Always made sure I lived in a stout house, and had hurricane provisions, from June 1 on....

Oh, and never minded NOT living on the coast (cause then I would have had insurance payments I couldn't have afforded to pay!!!) lol

[RL3AO]

My grandmother lives 10 miles from the coast in central wpb (near pbi). She is panicking about getting her shutters put up. Should we go over and start putting them up now or wait it out a bit?

If you can why not? One less thing to do tomorrow or Wednesday.

[tarheelprogrammer]

A little more worried here in the Wilmington, NC area but I expect models to trend back east....hopefully.

[sponger]

My grandmother lives 10 miles from the coast in central wpb (near pbi). She is panicking about getting her shutters put up. Should we go over and start putting them up now or wait it out a bit?

I would wait, still plenty of time. Hopefully it stays offshore and she won't need them. You will know tomorrow!

[Aric Dunn]

Just because every model shifted west now, doesn't mean they won't shift back east later. Or they might go more west. Or south. This could end up with Matthew vacationing in Montenegro, who knows anymore. I'm sure the NHC will be patient with moving the cone over. A west shift at 5pm is assured, I could see it being maybe 60ish miles west, enough to get at least the eastern half of the peninsula in the cone. If the model trends hold, a more decent shift at 11pm.

well at least the models have initialized the strength of the current ridging over the western atlantic. its been a huge issue thus far with the models not being able to pin now the synoptic setup and how it would erode the ridge. to weak then we get what we have had for the last few days. so we can at least be fairly confident in over all direction. how much east or west is still the questions as well as the land interaction with the mountains affecting the circ/ getting caught up can slow things down quite a bit.

[Florida1118]

Due to the shape of the Florida coastline evacuation is going to be difficult if not impossible. I've sheltered in place rather than try to bug out at the last minute only to run out of gas in gridlock traffic. If Matthew is moving slowly in the Bahamas and there is an NHC forecast keeping the core winds offshore and I lived in a sturdy structure, why take a chance on the road unless you are in a flood prone area?

That's not the purpose of evacuation. Evacuations are for storm surge, and for weak buildings such as mobile homes. The whole point of evacuation is to remove those in areas that will be inundated by surge; many of those areas are not "flood prone" per say, as major hurricanes do not occur frequently to the area. Evacuate as ordered. Emergency Management agencies use a plethora of tools, in direct coordination with the National Hurricane Center and the National Weather Service. If you are not ordered to evacuate, do not do so unless you are in a weaker building, such as a mobile home; unnecessary evacuations are what clogs the roads, and people often still get impacted similarly (take Hurricane Charley, for example; many people evacuated Tampa to Orlando to "escape the wind", and still got impacted). Run from the water (evacuate from storm surge if ordered), hide from the wind (shelter in place if you are not ordered to evacuate).

Floyd and Rita are good examples that the evacuation can be far worse than the storm.

Rita's were a combination of a heat wave and a bus crash; not exactly compelling evidence to stay in a storm surge vulnerable area against ordered evacuations.

[RL3AO]

As was pointed out, there are a lot of tools available for emergency managers even compared to 2005. They can narrow down evacuations to very small scale areas. Remember, the United States evacuates almost entirely for storm surge. If you aren't in a storm surge threatened area and aren't told to evacuate, then you shouldn't evacuate. Of course exceptions to those in weak buildings apply.

[sponger]

That's not the purpose of evacuation. Evacuations are for storm surge, and for weak buildings such as mobile homes. The whole point of evacuation is to remove those in areas that will be inundated by surge; many of those areas are not "flood prone" per say, as major hurricanes do not occur frequently to the area. Evacuate as ordered. Emergency Management agencies use a plethora of tools, in direct coordination with the National Hurricane Center and the National Weather Service. If you are not ordered to evacuate, do not do so unless you are in a weaker building, such as a mobile home; unnecessary evacuations are what clogs the roads, and people often still get impacted similarly (take Hurricane Charley, for example; many people evacuated Tampa to Orlando to "escape the wind", and still got impacted). Run from the water (evacuate from storm surge if ordered), hide from the wind (shelter in place if you are not ordered to evacuate).

Floyd and Rita are good examples that the evacuation can be far worse than the storm.

Rita's were a combination of a heat wave and a bus crash; not exactly compelling evidence to stay in a storm surge vulnerable area against ordered evacuations.

Agreed. Living on the coast has real dangers in a major. Unfortunately hundreds of thousands panic making it nearly impossible to get out. An evac is dangerous and should be kept in mind for anyone not in a evacuation zone. I will never forget before Andrew when emergency managers ordered evacs for all East of I95. It got real, real quick.

[terstorm1012]

I like that North Carolina issued a state of emergency in some counties. Even though we're likely 3-5 days away, I think that allows resources to get moved into place and everything doesn't have to be rushed when watches and warnings do go up.