ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[hohnywx]

 https://twitter.com/FloridaTropics1/status/770243033816334336

[GCANE]

Yeah, TD 9 just may finally get it together now that the cyclone is beginning to pull away from the influences of Cuba. The path is now there for TD 9 to seemingly take advantage of the favorable conditions which some have already pointed out on this page. TD 9 is starting already with a.nice convective blowup is this morning near the LLC.

NHC keeps it in line to the models thinking that it will bein the range of a moderately strong TS or minmal hurricane at its strongest at landfall.

But, we have to pay attention because it will not take much at all for this tropical cyclone to potentially.intesify quickly as forecast over those very warm ssts of the GOM before landfall in the next 3-4 days.

IMHO, its most opportune time to intensify is when it gets to about 25N.
Will be hitting the meat of the Loop Current and will be on an almost due-north track.

[JaxGator]

Yeah, TD 9 just may finally get it together now that the cyclone is beginning to pull away from the influences of Cuba. The path is now there for TD 9 to seemingly take advantage of the favorable conditions which some have already pointed out on this page. TD 9 is starting already with a.nice convective blowup is this morning near the LLC.

NHC keeps it in line to the models thinking that it will bein the range of a moderately strong TS or minmal hurricane at its strongest at landfall.

But, we have to pay attention because it will not take much at all for this tropical cyclone to potentially.intesify quickly as forecast over those very warm ssts of the GOM before landfall in the next 3-4 days.

We'll see what it does northjaxpro. Looks to be taking advantage of its environment already. Hoping it won't be a bad storm for us if it heads our way.

[robbielyn]

So my question for the promets or anyone else on here for that matter. What is creating the difference between the 2 models showing a panhandle strike and the other 3 models showing a Tampa area strike? What effect will intensity have on the model? Stronger storm further east or stronger storm more west?

I will tell you the difference. If it's a hurricane at landfall it will hit panhandle if its only a TS I can see it hitting our area. Just based on climatological history which we know is fluid and could change but I doubt big bend or south of there will get a hurricane. JMO

[abajan]

For many years now, I've followed the NHC discussions on cyclones, and it seems like 9 times out of 10, the systems end up stronger than they forecast. My gut is that the same will happen in this case. Just be prepared.

[HurriGuy]

live water vapor

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=25&lon=-85&info=wv&zoom=4&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=wv2.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=black

That upper high looks to be developing right over it.

[ronjon]

For many years now, I've followed the NHC discussions on cyclones, and it seems like 9 times out of 10, the systems end up stronger than they forecast. My gut is that the same will happen in this case. Just be prepared.

Yes and they will admit intensity forecasting needs to improve - still one of the least understood processes with tropical cyclones.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Not convinced till that thing makes that turn.

On that note...where is the trough that sweeps it up?

[otowntiger]

Yes intensity forecasting is still not much better than a shot in the dark apparently. I've seen them miss both ways. I've not charted it but I think they over estimate strength almost as much as I've seen it underestimated. But again that is just my perception and fuzzy recollection over the years.

[benh316]

I have been curious as to why the convection for this system has been south or east of the center of rotation almost throughout its entire development process... has wind shear been entirely the cause of this?

[Yellow Evan]

For many years now, I've followed the NHC discussions on cyclones, and it seems like 9 times out of 10, the systems end up stronger than they forecast. My gut is that the same will happen in this case. Just be prepared.

Yes, but keep in mind, the NHC doesn't forecast peak intensities. They forecast intensities at 12, 24, 36, and 48 hours in advance.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/770253463292825600

[HurricaneBelle]

I have been curious as to why the convection for this system has been south or east of the center of rotation almost throughout its entire development process... has wind shear been entirely the cause of this?

Yes, an upper low off the Georgia coast is and has been imparting northerly shear on the system. That won't last much longer as the ULL is weakening and the system is gradually moving away from its influence.

[caneman]

Buoy 42003 more than a couple hundred miles north and seas already over 5 ft. Been increasing quite a bit and wind speeds over 25 mph. Anyone have closer reporting stations or obs? Wonder if it isn't already a tropical storm? What time does recon get out there?

[MGC]

Still a poor upper air environment over TD-9. Perhaps the shear will relax a bit in the coming days......MGC

[JaxGator]

Still a poor upper air environment over TD-9. Perhaps the shear will relax a bit in the coming days......MGC

Not for certain if the shear maps are true at the moment, but they do indicate that it is moving into a lower shear environment as we speak.

[TropicalSailor]

Buoy 42003 more than a couple hundred miles north and seas already over 5 ft. Been increasing quite a bit and wind speeds over 25 mph. Anyone have closer reporting stations or obs? Wonder if it isn't already a tropical storm? What time does recon get out there?

Just an FYI but in my marine experience you have to be cautious of the GOM obs buoys as it still is a washing machine on the calmest of days.

5ft seas is not rare.

[caneman]

It's not the 5 ft., it how they've been going up with each hour. I'm more curious about wind speed though and if it's not already a t.s.

[Emmett_Brown]

On the IR loop, you can see the overall cloud canopy expanding in all directions now... even a bit on the north side (although slowly). So there is upper outflow starting to develop... whereas the last week or so, upper winds just blew across the system like blowing out candles on a cake.

[Slughitter3]

I'm very much a novice at this but have been lurking for years and the one thing that amazes me with TD9 is the explosion of moisture from yesterday afternoon through until now. Take a look here and just move the slider bar around, does anyone feel this will get much bigger than forecasted?

http://climate.cod.edu/hanis/satellite/ ... co-wv-0-24

Just as crazy is watching it go from a disorganized blob in the Florida Straits to a well organized spinning ball of bubbling thunderstorms.

http://climate.cod.edu/hanis/satellite/ ... o-vis-0-24