ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jlauderdal]

Not convinced till that thing makes that turn.

On that note...where is the trough that sweeps it up?

this trough off to the north and east possibly...

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... olor=black

there is a whole bunch of weather on that IR loop...had some sun about an hour ago and like yesterday it set off the tstorms..doesnt take much heating to get them going in this setup..they are going to need to cut those storm totals back for the SE coast

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Still a poor upper air environment over TD-9. Perhaps the shear will relax a bit in the coming days......MGC

The coming days? It only has a couple of days left.

That's all relative. It may only have a couple days until it reaches your location, but your location is not where the storm will end.

[northjaxpro]

Northjaxpro and jville peeps, "if" this gets to cat 1 or higher, do you see us majorly effected or do you feel it goes more due north to panhandle. Right now I'm preparing that it will be to us in NE FL by Wednesday evening and Thursday morning. Thanks for your continued insight.

Well, IF, and I emphasize IF the cyclone attains Cat 1 hurricane status, we would probably get tropical storm winds up to 50 mph and possibly stronger gusts, even inland. Also, there will be the threat of tornadoes across the region as well. Right now, the timframe you indicated in your post tigerz3030 is also about when I expect the manor effects to come through here in the Jax area. So, we watch the intensity and forward speed.of the cyclone in the next 48 hours or so. The potential is there that this system could move through here stronger than it is forecasted to be right now. Definitely have towatch this extremely close the next couple of days. I think the models have a pretty good consensus.on track within 48-72 hours out now from lahdfall given the trough coming down to lift it out to the northeast across North Florida. We shall see.(I hope) we have seen it all with this system, so I am wondering if this system has any other tricks up its sleeve?

[TimeZone]

Still a poor upper air environment over TD-9. Perhaps the shear will relax a bit in the coming days......MGC

The coming days? It only has a couple of days left.

That's all relative. It may only have a couple days until it reaches your location, but your location is not where the storm will end.

Looks like it'll be headed out to Sea once it crosses FL.

[Hurricane Andrew]

First call, I'd say slow to no strengthening over 24 hours, followed by moderate intensification from 24 to 72 hours, than a fairly rapid ramp up until landfall. At this point, anywhere from TX/LA border to Tampa is still in the game IMO. As for landfall intensity, depending on how quickly it gets its act together, I would say between 60 and 100 miles per hour, probably on the lower end of that. SHIPS guidance keeps a moderate amount of shear on the system, which could be partially lffset by SSTs between 29 and 30 degrees C. Interestingly enough, the SHIPS guidance nearly stalls the storm in the 2-4 day range. If that happens, the intensity could be higher than the current suggustion. A lot remains to be seen, especially how quickly this storm organizes over the 24-48 hour period.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

Just updating my call. Newest SHIPS guidance keeps shear between 10-20 knots over the next 72 hours, with SSTs over 30° C. Interestingly, OHC decreases dramatically after 12 hours, which could limit intensification somewhat.

0 HRS - 35 MPH
12 HRS - 40 MPH - Slow Intensification
24 HRS - 45 MPH - Slow Intensification
36 HRS - 50 MPH - Slow Intensification
48 HRS - 60 MPH - Moderate Intensification
60 HRS - 70 MPH - Moderate Intensification
72 HRS - 80 MPH - LANDFALL

As for landfall location, anywhere from Mobile, AL to Tampa is still in play.

[Emmett_Brown]

Hey, sorry to interrupt... does anyone have a link to that rapid refresh Goes visible? (There are so many pages now, I couldn't locate it reading back...) Thanks!

[tolakram]

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=25&lon=-85&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=12&mapcolor=black

Upper flow appears to be our of the SW now, looking at cloud tops blowing off NE, so I would expect more convection on the north and NE side sometime today.

[Rail Dawg]

This video was taken at 0800 hrs EST from a location just west of the center of TD9.

Cuban airspace.

35,000 ft.

Note how the towers are "cleaner" with less shear tearing into them.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/9n1awdsep8n5r ... 4.MOV?dl=0

[Frank P]

Hey, sorry to interrupt... does anyone have a link to that rapid refresh Goes visible? (There are so many pages now, I couldn't locate it reading back...) Thanks!

https://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/ind ... 0#see_also

Seems not to be updating as it should though...

[tolakram]

Hey, sorry to interrupt... does anyone have a link to that rapid refresh Goes visible? (There are so many pages now, I couldn't locate it reading back...) Thanks!

It doesn't seem to be working at the moment.

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/index.php?action=view_animation&req_method=nframes_enddate&endtime=latest&nframes=50&band=1&res=1&aniwidth=800&aniheight=800

[N2FSU]

Can any Pro Mets answer? Would a stronger than forecast storm shift the track left or right at all? Or does intensity have little to no effect in this case?

[gatorcane]

convection expanding, shear is not as bad as it has been that is for sure, saved loop:

[JaxGator]

convection expanding, shear is not as bad as it has been that is for sure, saved loop:

[im g]https://s12.postimg.org/wt8q9wq71/avn_lalo_animated.gif[/img]

That's a big blow up of storms over the center there.

[cycloneye]

...TORRENTIAL RAINS OVER WESTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.6N 84.3W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM WSW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

Deep convection associated with the tropical cyclone increased this
morning, especially around western Cuba where rainfall totals of up
to 12 inches may have occurred. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
investigated the system earlier this morning and did not find winds
of tropical storm force. Based on those observations, and Dvorak
satellite estimates, the current intensity is held at 30 kt. An Air
Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
depression this afternoon, which should give a better estimate of
the strength of the system. Vertical shear should remain modest
for the next couple of days, but begin to increase around 72 hours
as the environment becomes more baroclinic with strong upper-level
westerlies prevailing over northern Florida. This is likely to
discourage significant strengthening as the cyclone nears landfall.
The official intensity forecast is close to the latest
statistical/dynamical LGEM guidance.

The center is not easy to locate but is believed to be situated
near the northwestern edge of the cloud mass, and the motion is
estimated to be 280/6 kt. A mid-tropospheric shortwave trough
developing over the southeastern United States is expected to
induce a turn toward the north and northeast in 2 to 3 days,
followed by acceleration toward the east-northeast late in the
forecast period. The official forecast is similar to that from the
previous advisory, and is mainly a blend of the latest GFS and
ECMWF solutions but leans toward the latter model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 23.6N 84.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 23.9N 85.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 24.4N 86.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 31/0000Z 25.0N 87.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 31/1200Z 26.1N 86.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 28.6N 83.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 02/1200Z 31.5N 79.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 03/1200Z 34.0N 71.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[GCANE]

There definitely is an anti-cyclone over this.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html
Hit the HDW-H box and notice the wind vectors.
With it moving into a high Theta-E ridge, intensification is a real possibility in the short term.

[northjaxpro]

The coming days? It only has a couple of days left.

That's all relative. It may only have a couple days until it reaches your location, but your location is not where the storm will end.

Looks like it'll be headed out to Sea once it crosses FL.

Well, that exactly what we all hope for here in this region as it is forecast to do just that.

[chris_fit]

Anyone know when the next recon mission will take place?

[tropicwatch]

on its way now

[JaxGator]

There definitely is an anti-cyclone over this.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html
Hit the HDW-H box and notice the wind vectors.
With it moving into a high Theta-E ridge, intensification is a real possibility in the short term.

That will help to keep it protected against any shear that's still there. The latest NHC discussion (by Pasch) mentioned shear from the trough coming down so, how would a anti-cyclone fare against that shear?

[tarheelprogrammer]

NAM with a big jump in intensity and looks like it has track correct. 973 at hour 60 and still a ways from landfall.