ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

There definitely is an anti-cyclone over this.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html
Hit the HDW-H box and notice the wind vectors.
With it moving into a high Theta-E ridge, intensification is a real possibility in the short term.

That will help to keep it protected against any shear that's (or may) still be there. The latest NHC discussion (by Pasch) mentioned shear from the trough coming down so, how would a anti-cyclone fare against that shear?

Its going to be a function of how strong the convection is.
High rain-rate hot towers will pretty much knock out moderate shear.
If convection is weak, then shear will prevail.

[DESTRUCTION5]

NAM with a big jump in intensity and looks like it has track correct. 973 at hour 60 and still a ways from landfall.

Good news is ...Its never been right.

[davidiowx]

Any chance Texas is still in play here or are we mostly in the clear?

Well there is always a chance we are still in play.. The trough needs to come down to sweep it off to the NE. I think the stronger the storm gets the higher the chances we are in the clear. Having said that, we still need to keep an eye out until it makes that turn towards the N then eventually N/NE. Everyone on the Gulf Coast from Mexico to Florida should be watching it until the turn is made.

Not saying this is a Debbie (2012) scenario, but if you look up the forecast tracks it was first going under LA into Texas, then a complete 180 into Florida.

[tarheelprogrammer]

NAM with a big jump in intensity and looks like it has track correct. 973 at hour 60 and still a ways from landfall.

Good news is ...Its never been right.

lol it is trying man it is trying.

[northjaxpro]

TD 9 is looking very good right now. Good inflow on the southwest side of the system and it appears to be organizing quite nicely. It is going to be very interesting to see if this trend continues throughout the day with the system.

But right now the system definitely looking about as good as it ever looked to this juncture.

[tropicwatch]

on its way now

Sorry that one is going into 8, the next one into 9 apparently takes of around 1730z.

[Emmett_Brown]

The trough interaction and shear will be interesting. I remember when Charley in 2004 interacted with a trough, and didn't weaken, in fact it seemed to aid in strengthening. I guess it depends on the structure of the storm and the setup. Certainly troughs can also turn weak tropical storms into elongated sheared systems.

[jlauderdal]

NAM with a big jump in intensity and looks like it has track correct. 973 at hour 60 and still a ways from landfall.

Good news is ...Its never been right.

to be fair the others haven't exactly been winners either although they seem to at least have some form of agreement now on the track idea but we dont really need models for that so close in,,i dont buy any intensity model, it could do anything honestly

[TropicalSailor]

on its way now

You sure that flight is for TD9? They are headed due East along the panhandle.

EDIT: Saw your correction.

[StormHunter72]

Any chance Texas is still in play here or are we mostly in the clear?

Well there is always a chance we are still in play.. The trough needs to come down to sweep it off to the NE. I think the stronger the storm gets the higher the chances we are in the clear. Having said that, we still need to keep an eye out until it makes that turn towards the N then eventually N/NE. Everyone on the Gulf Coast from Mexico to Florida should be watching it until the turn is made.

Not saying this is a Debbie (2012) scenario, but if you look up the forecast tracks it was first going under LA into Texas, then a complete 180 into Florida.

NHC is pretty good with Track.. glad it won't be anything major.

[ronjon]

NHC bumped up intensity to 65 mph at 72 hrs in 11 am forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 23.6N 84.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 23.9N 85.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 24.4N 86.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 31/0000Z 25.0N 87.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 31/1200Z 26.1N 86.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 28.6N 83.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 02/1200Z 31.5N 79.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 03/1200Z 34.0N 71.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

[GCANE]

Vort is up to 8 at 25N 86W and on the edge of the Theta-E ridge.
Anti-cyclone needs to work its way over there and the whole thing will stack.
Looks like thats about to happen in the next few hours.

[NDG]

The current status of TD 9 and forecasted UL winds because of the trough is as if we are tracking a storm in May/early June, not very like a late August set up all the sudden.

[tropicwatch]

The current status of TD 9 and forecasted UL winds because of the trough is as if we are tracking a storm in May/early June, not very like a late August set up all the sudden.

One big difference though, the heat content is much higher than in May/June.

[DESTRUCTION5]

NHC bumped up intensity to 65 mph at 72 hrs in 11 am forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 23.6N 84.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 23.9N 85.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 24.4N 86.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 31/0000Z 25.0N 87.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 31/1200Z 26.1N 86.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 28.6N 83.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 02/1200Z 31.5N 79.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 03/1200Z 34.0N 71.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

I have the NHC has done a fantastic job with this as they always have. In particular never jumping the gun with all the bad modeling early and waiting for the consensus were seeing the last 24 hrs. with a Nature coast landfall. Everyone still has plenty of time to prepare property for what we hope is just a minor blow.

[Yellow Evan]

The current status of TD 9 and forecasted UL winds because of the trough is as if we are tracking a storm in May/early June, not very like a late August set up all the sudden.

One big difference though, the heat content is much higher than in May/June.

SST's don't matter if there's strong shear. With that said, shear is lower in this setup than there is in the late spring. so intensification is quite reasonable here.

[ronjon]

The current status of TD 9 and forecasted UL winds because of the trough is as if we are tracking a storm in May/early June, not very like a late August set up all the sudden.

One big difference though, the heat content is much higher than in May/June.

And this is not unheard of - remember Charley in 2004 - sharp trough steered that E-NE as it approached SW FL in mid-August.

[KWT]

The current status of TD 9 and forecasted UL winds because of the trough is as if we are tracking a storm in May/early June, not very like a late August set up all the sudden.

Yes it is quite similar, especially in the angle of recurve.

With that being said, whilst the NHC thinks that trough will stop strengthening, I've seen plenty of these types of NE moving cyclones get a power-up initially as it happens. Will need to be watched.

[Ntxw]

It's not like it has been going through ice waters most of it's life. It's all been warm from the leewards to bahamas, and SGOM now. Atmosphere dictates almost everything. Gaston managed a major in less warm waters (and less OHC) then this depression did with very different results.

[Michele B]

Wow! Good to see they're taking no chances, and trying to get people ready early.