ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

interesting the NAM continue to slow the progression of the trough and how far south it gets allowing for the system to stay over water nearly a entire day longer than the 12z and 18z yesterday.

It's a toss-up as far as which model is the absolute worst for tropical cyclones - the NAM, NOGAPS, or Canadian. I think the NOGAPS is still the leader there, with the NAM close on its heels. If my forecast is EVER close to the NOGAPS solution then I know the track is 180 degrees off.

Looking at satellite, my initial impression was "whoa!", then I looped it. I can see a couple of swirls rotating around but I don't think anything is under that convection. Recon should clear that up in a couple of hours.

agreed on the nam. I was not looking for track or intensity just the synoptics. it has over the last 4 runs slowed that trough being much slower.

[GCANE]

What effect would that have on 09L?

Very likely would see a convective ramp up when it tracks into it.

GCANE, do you know if any of the models can process Theta-E Ridge data and incorporate it into their tracks to show what kind of effect it would have on the developing system?

I know GFS & NAM do process Theta-E.

I get forecasts on it from TwisterData.com

http://www.twisterdata.com/

Look under the Temperature drop down.

I am not sure how they use it for tropical low development though.

[Sanibel]

Dvorak says go time. Surface feature means business now.


Disclaimer: I am only an amateur internet observer. For serious tropical weather information refer to the National Hurricane Center.

[KWT]

Looking at satellite, my initial impression was "whoa!", then I looped it. I can see a couple of swirls rotating around but I don't think anything is under that convection. Recon should clear that up in a couple of hours.

Yeah, its a looked compared to what it has been!

My gut suggest recon will find TS winds in that convection, although as you say there maybe still some competing vortexes.

[hurrtracker79]

 https://twitter.com/TheSteveCop/status/770309982843723776

[Aric Dunn]

Looking at satellite, my initial impression was "whoa!", then I looped it. I can see a couple of swirls rotating around but I don't think anything is under that convection. Recon should clear that up in a couple of hours.

Yeah, its a looked compared to what it has been!

My gut suggest recon will find TS winds in that convection, although as you say there maybe still some competing vortexes.

I see no other vort/or swirls. a couple old arc clouds from earlier convection before the shear died. As well as some arc clouds due to the fact the pressure field is not expansive enough / steep enough to pull everything in so some still shoot off at oblique angles for sometime before slowing and turning inwards.

[Aric Dunn]

Also looks like we will continue to see a more westerly motion till it can clear Cuba as well as the ridge still seems to be slightly stronger than the models are showing. but will will see shortly.

[HurriGuy]

Guys, guys...keep the Louisiana talk out. My yard is a complete mess and I can't handle any more rain.

[KWT]

I see no other vort/or swirls. a couple old arc clouds from earlier convection before the shear died. As well as some arc clouds due to the fact the pressure field is not expansive enough / steep enough to pull everything in so some still shoot off at oblique angles for sometime before slowing and turning inwards.

Yeah that does make sense to be fair.

If this system is a tighter as is being suggested, it would lend credence to the HWRF version of events which has constantly been blowing this system up at this time. Also bodes badly for Florida down the line if it has things right.

[JaxGator]

 https://twitter.com/TheSteveCop/status/770309982843723776

Convection close to center still blossoming and that's a tight center there on ASCAT. Looking forward to what recon finds.

[Aric Dunn]

also to note the upper low over the western gulf has stopped its eastward motion and now appear to be retrograding back west if thats the case that should really open up the system to a nice upper ridge to build over it.

[psyclone]

Guys, guys...keep the Louisiana talk out. My yard is a complete mess and I can't handle any more rain.

You've got a very large (several hundred mile) margin of safety at this point. WPC doesn't take heavy rain west of Tallahassee as of now.

[robbielyn]

Also looks like we will continue to see a more westerly motion till it can clear Cuba as well as the ridge still seems to be slightly stronger than the models are showing. but will will see shortly.

What is a more westerly motion before going n and ne mean as far as where it will possibly make landfall Aric?

[Aric Dunn]

from the last recon fix to where the center is now at least from what is trackable. It has dropped slightly south of west some more.

[Sanibel]

Looks like a cyclone organizing to make up for lost time in my opinion. Katrina also dipped slightly S of W before intensifying.


Disclaimer: For all serious tropical weather information refer to the National Hurricane Center.

[wxman57]

Looking at satellite, my initial impression was "whoa!", then I looped it. I can see a couple of swirls rotating around but I don't think anything is under that convection. Recon should clear that up in a couple of hours.

Yeah, its a looked compared to what it has been!

My gut suggest recon will find TS winds in that convection, although as you say there maybe still some competing vortexes.

That SFMR instrument seems to find TS winds everywhere these days. I don't trust it very much, particularly when I see FL winds at 20kts and SFMR winds at 40-50 kts quite often, it seems. However, it does appear to be developing good outflow in at least 3 quadrants. It's well on its way to becoming "Hermine". Eight will just have to settle for "Ian". I'm working on advisory 42 on TD Nine now. First advisory was issued the Saturday before last. Glad it's finally developing as forecast.

[flamingosun]

I have a coworker of mine who is currently on a cruise on Royal Caribbean's Freedom of the Seas. According to Marinetraffic.com they are currently in the Florida Straights directly south of Key West heading 238 degrees at 18.6 knots. In other words, they are headed right into the heart of the depression. I hope she took here Dramamine with her.

I am betting your friend will be fine. We were on the Freedom in Oct of 2011 and rode out an unnamed storm that intensified just after we left Port Canaveral. Wind gusts to well over what TD 9 is producing, heavy rain and high seas, we were fine. Ship had a lot of damage - wet carpets, pool furniture in the sea, broken dishes and bottles of liquor, etc. Passengers were confined to their cabins, but we just went to sleep. If Captain Rob is still at the helm he's a good one to have at the helm, having had early experience in the North Sea.

Besides, the itinerary will be adjusted to avoid dangerous weather if at all possible.

[Aric Dunn]

Also looks like we will continue to see a more westerly motion till it can clear Cuba as well as the ridge still seems to be slightly stronger than the models are showing. but will will see shortly.

What is a more westerly motion before going n and ne mean as far as where it will possibly make landfall Aric?

again all depends on that trough farther south it stays the harder it will be to get it to turn as sharp.

[HurriGuy]

With all the debris piles all across southeast Louisiana and how vulnerable the trees are with this ridiculously saturated ground, I fear even a marginally strong tropical storm would cause a lot of problems. In fact, 2 weeks later and we still have homes with water in them due to water trapped in many of the swamps.

Hopefully the trough is being well forecasted.

[Aric Dunn]

new hwrf is slower and more west initially then accelerates quickly the last day before landfall. interesting.