ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[birddogsc]

Wow... If there is interaction between it and the front that takes it OTS as shown in the GFS, there will be the possibility of some serious rain/storms in the Mid-Atlantic.

[1900hurricane]

I'm not sure if eyewall replacement will be fully complete before landfall. It's going to be close either way.

[alan1961]

It looks horrendous already in Kingston, Jamaica.

http://news.sky.com/story/looters-arres ... a-10602623

[otowntiger]

Quick question why is the NHC going with a cat 2 when almost every model keeps it very very strong?

Interesting. My local TVmet (he's the only one who saw Charlie's turn toward Peace RIver, so, he's the only one I TRUST!) just said Matt COULD BE DOWNRADED and not even still be a hurricane (but a very strong TS as it passes by FL, or skirts it .

I thought that was very odd.

The NHC has been under-forecasting Matthew's intensity for days. I'm sure that they don't want to overly alarm folks in the Carolinas just yet, while there is still considerable uncertainty in the track. Conditions look quite good for Matthew to maintain Cat 3-4 strength through the Bahamas to the Carolinas. As for weakening to a TS, that's quite unlikely.

Concerning Florida - no one is forecast hurricane conditions there, only a brush with tropical storm conditions. No need to panic, just be ready in case the winds are toward the upper end of TS conditions vs. the lower end.

Sounds like you are pretty certain there will be landfall in Florida, is that correct?

[TheStormExpert]

The way I see it Tropical Storm Watches would likely go up for most if not all the East Coast of Florida as early as 11pm tonight. Then if trends remain Hurricane Watches and Tropical Storm Warnings would be needed within the next 24 hours I would think.

[AutoPenalti]

Amazing what 12 hours does. I'm still expecting a shift west seeing as how that ridge is stronger than originally thought. We are approaching crunch time folks!

[Hypercane_Kyle]

18z GFS certainly paints a very unpleasant scenario for the residents of Cape Canaveral, FL and Charleston, SC.

[floridasun78]

The way I see it Tropical Storm Watches would likely go up for most if not all the East Coast of Florida as early as 11pm tonight. Then if trends remain Hurricane Watches and Tropical Storm Warnings would be needed within the next 24 hours I would think.

i think it be hurr watch what i between hear my weatherman

[Evil Jeremy]

The way I see it Tropical Storm Watches would likely go up for most if not all the East Coast of Florida as early as 11pm tonight. Then if trends remain Hurricane Watches and Tropical Storm Warnings would be needed within the next 24 hours I would think.

I think they will go the Hurricane Watch, followed by a TS warning with the H-watch maintained if needed. The worst case scenario is bad enough and possible enough to warrant a Hurricane watch. That is, if the models continue west (like the GFS right now). As for when those watches are issued, I think 11pm is too soon, going by the "48 hours until effects" guideline. Also, issuing the watch at 11pm doesn't really matter; what are people going to do, hurricane prep at midnight? Best to issue it at 5am, when the day is getting started.

[Blinhart]

The way I see it Tropical Storm Watches would likely go up for most if not all the East Coast of Florida as early as 11pm tonight. Then if trends remain Hurricane Watches and Tropical Storm Warnings would be needed within the next 24 hours I would think.

I think they will go the Hurricane Watch, followed by a TS warning with the H-watch maintained if needed. The worst case scenario is bad enough and possible enough to warrant a Hurricane watch. That is, if the models continue west (like the GFS right now). As for when those watches are issued, I think 11pm is too soon, going by the "48 hours until effects" guideline. Also, issuing the watch at 11pm doesn't really matter; what are people going to do, hurricane prep at midnight? Best to issue it at 5am, when the day is getting started.

11pm will allow the state and national guard to start getting everything together especially if there needs to be evacuations, having an additional 8 hours of prep can do a lot.

[floridasun78]

The way I see it Tropical Storm Watches would likely go up for most if not all the East Coast of Florida as early as 11pm tonight. Then if trends remain Hurricane Watches and Tropical Storm Warnings would be needed within the next 24 hours I would think.

I think they will go the Hurricane Watch, followed by a TS warning with the H-watch maintained if needed. The worst case scenario is bad enough and possible enough to warrant a Hurricane watch. That is, if the models continue west (like the GFS right now). As for when those watches are issued, I think 11pm is too soon, going by the "48 hours until effects" guideline. Also, issuing the watch at 11pm doesn't really matter; what are people going to do, hurricane prep at midnight? Best to issue it at 5am, when the day is getting started.

i notice nhc like issue it 5am watch i seen it alot time in miami past hurr

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Guess I will be heading south to Key Largo tomorrow evening to put the boat on the trailer and tie everything down.

[KBBOCA]

18z GFS certainly paints a very unpleasant scenario for the residents of Cape Canaveral, FL and Charleston, SC.

to put it mildly. That run has to be scaring most of the east coast. Looking bad for the Carolinas right now...

[chaser1]

I'd be surprised to see actual Hurricane Watches tonight. Only reason is that S. Florida is likely looking at Thursday night (or early Fri) impact. Not posting Hurricane Watches until early Tue. permits forecasters the luxury of having one more model run for the purpose of verification. Face it, this whole "westward ho" thing has come on pretty recent (this a.m), so I don't think they'd want to jump the gun in the event that models swing back a little bit more eastward. Providing NHC feels that they can provide at least 48 hr.s Watch time, perhaps followed by Warnings as soon as 12 hours later ahead of significantly deteriorating weather, than that might better insure their not putting an awful lot of State and local government resources into motion until really certain of their forecast.

[SunnyThoughts]

Size of Matthew sure looks to be expanding. http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

[weathaguyry]

What exactly is making the 18z showing a HARD right turn near NC, as opposed to an Irene style storm as shown in the 12z? (I put this in the discussion thread to avoid too much blabbering in the models thread)

[Blinhart]

Looking at the Water Vapor Loop on the NHC website, if it comes true Matthew should be turning West to NorthWest soon. That is what the water vapor is showing.

[AutoPenalti]

Size of Matthew sure looks to be expanding. http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

Link is dead.

[ronjon]

I'd be surprised to see actual Hurricane Watches tonight. Only reason is that S. Florida is likely looking at Thursday night (or early Fri) impact. Not posting Hurricane Watches until early Tue. permits forecasters the luxury of having one more model run for the purpose of verification. Face it, this whole "westward ho" thing has come on pretty recent (this a.m), so I don't think they'd want to jump the gun in the event that models swing back a little bit more eastward. Providing NHC feels that they can provide at least 48 hr.s Watch time, perhaps followed by Warnings as soon as 12 hours later ahead of significantly deteriorating weather, than that might better insure their not putting an awful lot of State and local government resources into motion until really certain of their forecast.

I see your logic chaser but think due to the sheer magnitude of threat and the possible migration of millions of people, they'd want to get an early jump with a hurricane watch. This is a CAT 4 storm - nothing to be too safe about.

[Alyono]

What exactly is making the 18z showing a HARD right turn near NC, as opposed to an Irene style storm as shown in the 12z? (I put this in the discussion thread to avoid too much blabbering in the models thread)

the trough is a lot weaker this run than it was at 12Z