ATL: Ex INVEST 92L - Discussion

[GCANE]

This thing doesn't look all that bad from the mid-level up: 1C warm air, anti-cyclone over it, firing cold-topped convection, surrounded in strong TPW.
Seems like the ULL that has been tracking on its west side is slowly pulling away and notably it is weakening as can be seen on WV imagery.
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_ATL/atlanimwv.html
Keeping an eye on it as it enters the west Carib.

[GCANE]

COAMPS forecasts that the anticyclone will stay over it as it moves thru the West Carib

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/coamps-web/w ... 0-200&zm=0

[northjaxpro]

I think if 92L can get through the next 18-24 hours and pull away.from the disruptive influences of Hispaniola, the system has a decent chance to develop with an anticyclone going in tandum with it.

[cycloneye]

Disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms over the central
Caribbean Sea and adjacent land areas are associated with a
tropical wave. Upper-level winds are unfavorable, and development
of this system is unlikely as the wave moves across the Caribbean
Sea this week. Periods of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds
could occur over Hispaniola today and over Jamaica and eastern Cuba
on Wednesday in association with this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

[abajan]

[stormlover2013]

I don't buy that one bit!!!!

[Kazmit]

I don't buy that the chances are that low... but development is looking less likely, at least until it enters the Gulf (if it does).

[stormlover2013]

yep if it gets in the gulf it has a shot........

[ConvergenceZone]

Once it gets into the BOC, it could do something

[wxman57]

I don't buy that the chances are that low... but development is looking less likely, at least until it enters the Gulf (if it does).

I think that development chances over the next 48 hours are near zero. 10% is quite generous. We'll have to keep a close eye on it when it moves into the Gulf this weekend, though. GFS & Euro are fighting over the forecast there. GFS has relatively high wind shear across the northern Gulf, Euro doesn't. However, neither is indicating development. The one "positive" for development is that I will attempt to take a comp day Friday for working the past 2 weekends...

[srainhoutx]

I don't buy that the chances are that low... but development is looking less likely, at least until it enters the Gulf (if it does).

I think that development chances over the next 48 hours are near zero. 10% is quite generous. We'll have to keep a close eye on it when it moves into the Gulf this weekend, though. GFS & Euro are fighting over the forecast there. GFS has relatively high wind shear across the northern Gulf, Euro doesn't. However, neither is indicating development. The one "positive" for development is that I will attempt to take a comp day Friday for working the past 2 weekends...

Now you went and did it....

[crownweather]

I don't buy that the chances are that low... but development is looking less likely, at least until it enters the Gulf (if it does).

I think that development chances over the next 48 hours are near zero. 10% is quite generous. We'll have to keep a close eye on it when it moves into the Gulf this weekend, though. GFS & Euro are fighting over the forecast there. GFS has relatively high wind shear across the northern Gulf, Euro doesn't. However, neither is indicating development. The one "positive" for development is that I will attempt to take a comp day Friday for working the past 2 weekends...

Great. Let's increase the 2-5 day chances for development to 90 percent just because wxman57 has the day off. lol.

[wxman57]

Great. Let's increase the 2-5 day chances for development to 90 percent just because wxman57 has the day off. lol.

Two weeks before Hermine developed I had scheduled vacation days for Thu/Fri August 25th-26th. That's right when Hermine developed. I have the power to generate hurricanes simply by scheduling a day off during hurricane season. Believe it!

[Tireman4]

Great. Let's increase the 2-5 day chances for development to 90 percent just because wxman57 has the day off. lol.

Two weeks before Hermine developed I had scheduled vacation days for Thu/Fri August 25th-26th. That's right when Hermine developed. I have the power to generate hurricanes simply by scheduling a day off during hurricane season. Believe it!

So again, you are one with the disturbances? You know..oh wise one..there are hints of a cold front coming our way mid September. Care to comment?

[Emmett_Brown]

Is that a naked LLC north of Hispaniola this morning, or are my eyes seeing things?

[SouthFloridian92]

Sorry but this is pathetic. It's the peak of the season and this is what it looks like?

[GCANE]

Is that a naked LLC north of Hispaniola this morning, or are my eyes seeing things?

There is an outflow boundary shooting off to the NW.
Not sure about an naked swirl.

[LarryWx]

The only circulation, if any, directly related to 92L looks to be located south of the Dominican Republic right now moving WNW. It isn't doing much as of now though I'm still not yet completely writing it off. Then again I'm certainly not betting against all of the models and expecting a TC to form from this. The models have done very well in recent days in not developing this. Kudos.

[abajan]

It's now down to 0% for both the 2-day and 5-day outlooks! Wow.

[Gustywind]

It's now down to 0% for both the 2-day and 5-day outlooks! Wow.

Impressive... hopefully glad it stays like thaT when i discovered all the damages this thing brang in Guadeloupe and even in Martinicaa in terms of rainfall , strong gusts, rought seas...guys!