ThetaE wrote:weathaguyry wrote:What exactly is making the 18z showing a HARD right turn near NC, as opposed to an Irene style storm as shown in the 12z? (I put this in the discussion thread to avoid too much blabbering in the models thread)
I was already actually typing an analysis on this intricacy you brought up, so thanks for asking!
Also, a quick disclaimer: I'm not actually 100% sure on a lot of this (always learning stuff!), but this is my best shot at explaining what happens.
The biggest impact on Matthew's eventual track through the NC area appears to be the approaching trough. The trough's exact angle and deepness will have significant impact on how sharply/when/where Matthew's turn to the northeast will occur. A flatter (weaker) and more positively tilted trough (southern part of the trough lags behind the northern part) will kick Matthew out to sea more, whereas a deeper and more negatively tilted trough could allow the turn to be more gradual, or- in the worst case scenario- not cause Matthew to turn at all (I think this is especially likely if the trough slows down a lot or stalls over the central US, which will help funnel Matthew in and/or phase with the trough). Again, this is my rough understanding of what's happening, so it may not be 100% correct.
EDIT: I forgot to mention, the trough still isn't fully over land as of now, which means there's still a good deal of uncertainty with exactly how it evolves. Once it moves ashore and we can start sampling it better (especially since weather balloons are being launched) the exact track of Matthew through/near NC should become clearer.
Thanks for your insight, I appreciate it!
): 
