ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wxman57]

18Z models initialized at 35kts. I expect an upgrade to "Hermine" on the next NHC advisory. That is, unless the plane can't find a single 35kt SFMR wind in those squalls (unlikely).

[mobilebay]

18Z models initialized at 35kts. I expect an upgrade to "Hermine" on the next NHC advisory. That is, unless the plane can't find a single 35kt SFMR wind in those squalls (unlikely).

Good catch. I see your still on your game

[wjs3]

18Z models initialized at 35kts. I expect an upgrade to "Hermine" on the next NHC advisory.

Would be surprised if they didn't. BTW, loved your post a few pages back about SFMR. Agree completely. Makes me nuts.

[OntarioEggplant]

The reason the center is elongated is because it is being pulled toward the convection and MLC. It will be more circular once that is complete.

[chaser1]

lol it is struggling like any storm in the western Atlantic that threatens land in recent years. Good news maybe it will keep it weak like the GFS is showing. Still have to watch for rain but not as big of a threat if it is moving fast. We shall see what it does later today and if convection maintains. Looks can be deceiving I suppose.

Moving fast might mean a storm is caught up in a fast flow ahead of a trough AND less time to strengthen. In some cases that might well mean less of a threat. Then again, it could mean something like Hurricane Charlie barreling down on you - Big Threat!

I was talking about the rain threat.

Well, you're definately right about that. Much less of a rain event the faster it comes and moves on out

[Tireman4]

You hope..... After all crazy with this entity

[davidiowx]

Looks like an upgrade to TS is on it's way. Hermine is born.

[Aric Dunn]

from the noaa radar. it appears multiple vorts may be in there the one they are currently flying around and the other here in black with a curved convective band on the south and east side.. luckily we have recon there.

[NDG]

Looks like an upgrade to TS is on it's way. Hermine is born.

That's weird with the Recon has not reported TS force winds and pressure is still at 1007mb.

[Evil Jeremy]

000
URNT15 KWBC 291852
NOAA3 0709A CYCLONE HDOB 12 20160829
184230 2346N 08433W 9225 00776 0076 +224 +211 359004 005 013 001 03
184300 2346N 08431W 9230 00773 0077 +223 +210 339004 004 012 000 00
184330 2347N 08429W 9232 00771 0076 +224 +209 276003 004 012 000 03
184400 2348N 08427W 9230 00771 0075 +224 +207 250004 005 013 000 00
184430 2348N 08425W 9225 00774 0072 +228 +205 230006 007 014 000 03
184500 2347N 08424W 9233 00767 0071 +233 +202 224007 007 011 000 00
184530 2346N 08422W 9232 00770 0073 +231 +203 215008 009 011 000 00
184600 2344N 08421W 9231 00771 0074 +229 +203 225007 008 011 000 00
184630 2343N 08419W 9232 00771 0075 +224 +209 232008 009 013 000 00
184700 2342N 08418W 9232 00771 0076 +223 +214 234009 010 012 000 00
184730 2340N 08417W 9233 00771 0075 +225 +212 235010 010 013 000 00
184800 2339N 08415W 9232 00771 0074 +230 +205 231011 011 013 000 00
184830 2338N 08414W 9229 00774 0075 +231 +206 224011 012 014 000 00
184900 2336N 08412W 9229 00775 0075 +234 +205 222013 013 014 000 00
184930 2335N 08411W 9232 00774 0078 +229 +214 216013 014 013 000 00
185000 2334N 08409W 9231 00775 0078 +230 +209 211015 015 014 001 00
185030 2333N 08408W 9232 00775 0080 +225 +213 209017 017 015 000 00
185100 2332N 08406W 9232 00776 0080 +226 +213 209018 020 017 000 00
185130 2331N 08404W 9225 00781 0080 +227 +213 206019 019 016 000 00
185200 2330N 08403W 9249 00758 0079 +229 +210 206018 018 016 000 00

[chaser1]

Sound's like its pretty border-line? I'm slightly surprised NHC chose to not give another couple hours of persistance to see whether the convection would collapse or expand and/or the shear reassert itself.

[chaser1]

Looks like an upgrade to TS is on it's way. Hermine is born.

That's weird with the Recon has not reported TS force winds and pressure is still at 1007mb.

Yeah, that would'nt make any sense??

[KWT]

Interesting that they are likely to upgrade, wonder if a ship report has helped to confirm whether it is 35kts.

We will see what recon reports over the next few hours.

[mobilebay]

Looks like an upgrade to TS is on it's way. Hermine is born.

That's weird with the Recon has not reported TS force winds and pressure is still at 1007mb.

Yeah, that would'nt make any sense??

That's because Recon has not been through the strong part of the storm. They are trying to fix the center. Imho

[Evil Jeremy]

000
URNT15 KWBC 291902
NOAA3 0709A CYCLONE HDOB 13 20160829
185230 2329N 08401W 9224 00783 0081 +228 +218 209017 017 016 000 00
185300 2327N 08359W 9225 00784 0081 +228 +220 210017 018 022 001 00
185330 2326N 08358W 9230 00780 0079 +227 +225 208017 019 028 000 00
185400 2325N 08356W 9232 00778 0080 +226 +221 206019 020 028 000 00
185430 2324N 08354W 9232 00778 0082 +225 //// 199018 021 031 003 01
185500 2323N 08353W 9219 00788 0080 +223 //// 196024 025 029 001 01
185530 2322N 08351W 9242 00772 0085 +223 +222 190024 026 029 001 00
185600 2321N 08350W 9242 00770 0086 +221 //// 191027 030 029 002 01
185630 2320N 08348W 9243 00770 0084 +224 +221 199025 027 029 000 00
185700 2319N 08347W 9265 00749 0089 +219 //// 197025 026 028 000 01
185730 2318N 08345W 9248 00765 0088 +217 +215 204024 025 027 000 00
185800 2316N 08344W 9247 00767 0090 +219 +209 210022 023 027 000 00
185830 2315N 08343W 9234 00784 0088 +226 +194 210020 021 027 000 03
185900 2315N 08341W 9245 00768 0089 +227 +198 210019 020 025 000 03
185930 2317N 08340W 9242 00773 0090 +224 +195 205021 022 027 001 00
190000 2319N 08340W 9234 00781 0091 +218 +205 209023 023 029 000 00
190030 2322N 08340W 9232 00783 0091 +215 +208 202024 025 027 000 00
190100 2324N 08339W 9240 00776 0092 +215 +208 204023 024 028 000 00
190130 2326N 08339W 9241 00773 0090 +214 +209 202024 024 027 000 00
190200 2328N 08339W 9228 00785 0089 +217 +204 202023 024 026 001 00

[crimi481]

Heavy rain squall / band here. Englewood, FL. Heavier south/ Ft Myers area
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... W&loop=yes

[OntarioEggplant]

I think recon turned north a little too quickly. Would have liked to see wind speeds in the thunderstorms.

[TPAcane]

Question Storm2Kers....

I remember with Wilma...once it got picked up by the trough and quickly ejected NEward....I remember someone mentioning that if the storm is travelling in the same direction as the shear at a decent clip it is not affected as much by it. If this entity sits in the gulf and starts to pick up forward momentum NE...and at a pretty good clip it seems approaching the coast...will the degradation of the storm be less as it becomes embedded in the SWerly shear...will wind speeds be less affected? I think Levi mentioned as well, if the storm is able to tap into that strong jet streak from the trough in front of it off the SE Coast it could foster some further development...baroclinic almost...what say you all???

[tropicwatch]

Vortex message:
roduct: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 19:00Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Tropical Depression: Nine (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 7
Observation Number: 04
A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 18:43:56Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 23°47'N 84°29'W (23.7833N 84.4833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 142 statute miles (229 km) to the WNW (289°) from Havana, Cuba.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 757m (2,484ft) at 925mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 24kts (~ 27.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 76 nautical miles (87 statute miles) to the NW (317°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 73° at 22kts (From the ENE at ~ 25.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 56 nautical miles (64 statute miles) to the NW (318°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1007mb (29.74 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 793m (2,602ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 782m (2,566ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 20°C (68°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 925mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 8 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 2,500 feet
Maximum Flight Level Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 30kts (~ 34.5mph) which was observed 61 nautical miles (70 statute miles) to the ESE (115°) from the flight level center at 18:55:52Z

[chaser1]

Saw this in the Recon discussion??? Someone was speculating the center at 23.8N and 81.7W ??? No way, somethings off there.