ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[chris_fit]

Recon shows TD9 is rather looking better than feeling at the moment - surprised at the high pressure and low winds thus far

[Nimbus]

The first vort message said 1007 MB's so it isn't spinning up very fast.
Is the 8 nautical mile error margin a statement about true center position?

[wxman57]

Looks like an upgrade to TS is on it's way. Hermine is born.

That's weird with the Recon has not reported TS force winds and pressure is still at 1007mb.

That upgrade is contingent on the plane finding TS winds. If not, then no upgrade.

[RL3AO]

Question Storm2Kers....

I remember with Wilma...once it got picked up by the trough and quickly ejected NEward....I remember someone mentioning that if the storm is travelling in the same direction as the shear at a decent clip it is not affected as much by it. If this entity sits in the gulf and starts to pick up forward momentum NE...and at a pretty good clip it seems approaching the coast...will the degradation of the storm be less as it becomes embedded in the SWerly shear...will wind speeds be less affected? I think Levi mentioned as well, if the storm is able to tap into that strong jet streak from the trough in front of it off the SE Coast it could foster some further development...baroclinic almost...what say you all???

Probably yes. Also the way the jet streak sets up in the models may help ventilate the system as it begins to turn NE.

[Aric Dunn]

Saw this in the Recon discussion??? Someone was speculating the center at 23.8N and 81.7W ??? No way, somethings off there.

there is clearly multiple vorts now... the sw most one has convection firing with it at present. have to wait and see what recon finds

[NDG]

Saw this in the Recon discussion??? Someone was speculating the center at 23.8N and 81.7W ??? No way, somethings off there.

Lowest pressure they found was near 23.8N & 84.5W

[Soonercane]

It seems based on RECON... TD 9 might be at its "high tide" in organization right now, doesn't seem to have the right conditions needed to intensify further for the time being, and I think it may regress a little bit now.

[GCANE]

Heavy rain squall / band here. Englewood, FL. Heavier south/ Ft Myers area
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... W&loop=yes

Definitely helping with the dry air - thanks for info

[OuterBanker]

I'm just glad that this will be going out to sea instead of riding the coast.

[Evil Jeremy]

000
URNT15 KWBC 291912
NOAA3 0709A CYCLONE HDOB 14 20160829
190230 2330N 08339W 9221 00790 0087 +218 +204 199025 025 027 000 00
190300 2332N 08338W 9222 00791 0088 +217 +205 192024 025 026 001 00
190330 2334N 08338W 9222 00790 0089 +216 +207 189024 025 028 000 00
190400 2336N 08338W 9223 00789 0090 +216 +208 188024 025 027 000 00
190430 2338N 08338W 9225 00789 0089 +217 +208 184024 025 027 000 00
190500 2340N 08337W 9220 00791 0086 +224 +207 179023 024 029 000 00
190530 2342N 08337W 9223 00790 0087 +220 +209 177025 026 030 000 00
190600 2344N 08337W 9222 00791 0088 +222 +207 176025 025 029 000 00
190630 2346N 08337W 9225 00788 0090 +218 +206 174026 026 028 000 00
190700 2348N 08336W 9225 00788 0089 +220 +204 172026 026 028 000 00
190730 2350N 08336W 9221 00790 0087 +220 +202 169025 026 028 000 00
190800 2353N 08336W 9225 00787 0091 +215 +206 167027 027 028 000 00
190830 2355N 08335W 9224 00790 0091 +215 +205 168025 026 028 000 00
190900 2357N 08335W 9225 00789 0091 +217 +202 168026 027 027 000 00
190930 2359N 08335W 9222 00791 0090 +218 +202 166026 026 028 000 00
191000 2401N 08335W 9225 00789 0093 +213 +204 162025 027 027 000 00
191030 2403N 08334W 9225 00791 0094 +213 +203 156025 026 026 001 00
191100 2405N 08334W 9225 00791 0095 +212 +206 153026 026 027 000 00
191130 2407N 08334W 9226 00790 0093 +213 +207 150028 031 026 001 00
191200 2409N 08334W 9225 00791 0094 +214 +209 154028 028 026 000 00

[hurricanehunter69]

Looking at this water vapor loop, I'm losing faith in the trough and the current NHC track ( trough appears to be moving more zonal and off to the east? ) I pray west shifts in track are not forthcoming? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/comp/ceus/flash-wv.html

[chaser1]

Question Storm2Kers....

I remember with Wilma...once it got picked up by the trough and quickly ejected NEward....I remember someone mentioning that if the storm is travelling in the same direction as the shear at a decent clip it is not affected as much by it. If this entity sits in the gulf and starts to pick up forward momentum NE...and at a pretty good clip it seems approaching the coast...will the degradation of the storm be less as it becomes embedded in the SWerly shear...will wind speeds be less affected? I think Levi mentioned as well, if the storm is able to tap into that strong jet streak from the trough in front of it off the SE Coast it could foster some further development...baroclinic almost...what say you all???

Nearly all of what you said is basically correct. I'd say baroclinic processes are more common in early or late season systems but bottom line is that a storms forward motion would in part negate upper level shear when the storm is moving with that flow (obviously, not against it lol). I seem to recall some equation where in say Wilma's case, the stronger surface flow would have been on its south side where the counter clock wise winds would be most enchanced by the stronger flow aloft. Here, a MET might offer a better explantion than myself

[TropicalSailor]

Looks like they just found 30+. It's getting close.

[HurriGuy]

Looking at this water vapor loop, I'm losing faith in the trough and the current NHC track ( trough appears to be moving more zonal and off to the east? ) I pray west shifts in track are not forthcoming? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/comp/ceus/flash-wv.html

the trough that is picking it up has not even gotten to the water vapor loop

[wxman57]

18Z models just re-initialized at 30kts.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Convection waning and center becoming exposed. It is about to go naked. I would of waited to upgrade now that I see this. The western Atlantic is just pathetic. Track will probably shift west more if it stays weak correct?

[chaser1]

18Z models just re-initialized at 30kts.

...and the roller-coaster goes on...

[davidiowx]

18Z models just re-initialized at 30kts.

Oh wow.. perhaps this upgrade may wait then.. Maybe I spook just a bit to soon

[Tireman4]

18Z models just re-initialized at 30kts.

Just make the roller coaster stop..I cannot...handle...this....

[mobilebay]

Convection waning and center becoming exposed. It is about to go naked. I would of waited to upgrade now that I see this. The western Atlantic is just pathetic. Track will probably shift west more if it stays weak correct?

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