ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[StormHunter72]

If it moves under that anti-cyclone, it will remind me of Charley which had an extreme anti-cyclone above it.

Let's not.

I still hate that storm. Talk about scaring the carp out of me.

Right now 5-8"+ of rain is bad enough so we do not need an intensifying storm at landfall. The worst case scenario for those of us near the coast is a slow moving intensifying storm dropping even more rain than initial forecasts given thus far. Fast moving and weakening would be best.

will most likely be on the fringes at this juncture.

[Evil Jeremy]

000
URNT15 KWBC 291952
NOAA3 0709A CYCLONE HDOB 18 20160829
194230 2409N 08424W 9270 00728 0066 +233 +215 123015 015 019 000 00
194300 2407N 08425W 9271 00726 0065 +232 +216 124014 014 019 000 00
194330 2406N 08426W 9272 00724 0064 +230 +219 127013 014 015 000 00
194400 2404N 08427W 9271 00725 0064 +228 +220 125011 012 012 000 00
194430 2402N 08428W 9269 00726 0063 +229 +214 125008 009 011 000 00
194500 2401N 08429W 9270 00726 0066 +229 +210 126005 006 011 000 00
194530 2359N 08430W 9270 00727 0065 +229 +213 124003 004 012 000 03
194600 2358N 08431W 9270 00729 0067 +228 +213 112002 002 014 001 00
194630 2356N 08432W 9271 00727 0068 +227 +215 023002 002 011 000 00
194700 2354N 08433W 9271 00729 0070 +226 +219 337001 002 012 000 00
194730 2352N 08433W 9269 00730 0069 +228 +218 264003 004 013 000 00
194800 2351N 08435W 9273 00726 0068 +229 +215 297004 004 009 000 00
194830 2350N 08436W 9271 00729 0070 +232 +208 290004 004 011 000 00
194900 2349N 08438W 9272 00729 0070 +228 +211 276003 003 009 000 00
194930 2347N 08439W 9272 00730 0071 +225 +214 285002 003 010 000 00
195000 2346N 08441W 9272 00728 0072 +223 +216 266002 003 010 000 00
195030 2345N 08442W 9269 00732 0071 +225 +215 268003 003 009 000 00
195100 2344N 08444W 9269 00732 0070 +226 +216 276002 003 011 000 00
195130 2343N 08446W 9274 00729 0071 +227 +223 263002 003 020 000 00
195200 2342N 08447W 9237 00765 0073 +224 +215 260003 003 012 000 00

[cdavis6287]

So given they have located winds 35kt, do you think NWS will update to tropical storm at 5pm?

[johngaltfla]

If it moves under that anti-cyclone, it will remind me of Charley which had an extreme anti-cyclone above it.

Let's not.

I still hate that storm. Talk about scaring the carp out of me.

Right now 5-8"+ of rain is bad enough so we do not need an intensifying storm at landfall. The worst case scenario for those of us near the coast is a slow moving intensifying storm dropping even more rain than initial forecasts given thus far. Fast moving and weakening would be best.

Not trying to scare just making an observation.

Not taken that way man, just referring to Charley. That was a bigger nightmare if it had stayed out to sea moving north for one more hour.

Back to page 200+ of the great un-named storm (yet) of 2016. I'd hate to see what happens with then next big Cape Verde wave that hauls west next week.

[Evil Jeremy]

I believe those 35kt+ winds were at flight level, not surface level. Someone correct me if I'm wrong please.

[cdavis6287]

Has a tropical storm been born?

[Alyono]

Charley's intensification was more due PV advection directly over the center from the cold front and trough

[HurriGuy]

I believe those 35kt+ winds were at flight level, not surface level. Someone correct me if I'm wrong please.

They are at flightlevel

[Soonercane]

So given they have located winds 35kt, do you think NWS will update to tropical storm at 5pm?

Those were flight level, 30 knots seems ok at this point.

[Hammy]

RGB loop. Center or eddy is partially exposed it seems

Looks like an eddy based on recon fixes.

[Bailey1777]

At this point I would stop with all the flip flopping and just go with one word...potential...now back to the show.

[Blinhart]

So given they have located winds 35kt, do you think NWS will update to tropical storm at 5pm?

Those were flight level, 30 knots seems ok at this point.

30 kt SFMR so it isn't quite there yet. But everyone gots to remember it only needs 32 Kt surface winds to be classified a TS (37 mph).

[Extratropical94]

Has a tropical storm been born?

Personally, I wouldn't upgrade the system as the stretch of 34+ kt winds were at flight level only (surface extrapolations stayed in the upper 20s) and execpt for that last ASCAT pass there is little evidence of a significant area of TS force surface winds.

[ronjon]

This thing has traveled across the entire Atlantic in late August, and has now made it's way into the GOM and look at it. It's still an absolute mess. The Atlantic sure has changed a lot the last few years.

Hahaha..let's hope it stays that way but I think not with 2-3 days over the open GOM. All of the people saying this is dying is quite comical - i thought they would have said that 12 hrs ago when it really looked pathetic.

[OuterBanker]

A question for the mets.
This pertains to td 8, but everyone is here so I'll ask here.

The ull that was limiting the development of td 8 has made landfall in SC.

Will landfall affect an ull?

[Evil Jeremy]

000
URNT15 KWBC 292002
NOAA3 0709A CYCLONE HDOB 19 20160829
195230 2341N 08449W 9232 00769 0074 +223 +212 290003 003 012 003 00
195300 2340N 08451W 9230 00772 0074 +224 +214 279006 006 010 001 00
195330 2339N 08452W 9232 00771 0075 +226 +212 286007 008 009 000 00
195400 2337N 08453W 9231 00771 0075 +225 +214 282008 009 009 000 00
195430 2336N 08455W 9232 00771 0075 +226 +214 280008 009 009 001 00
195500 2335N 08456W 9232 00770 0074 +228 +211 282010 011 011 000 00
195530 2333N 08458W 9233 00770 0074 +232 +207 289010 010 011 000 00
195600 2332N 08459W 9229 00774 0074 +232 +206 291011 011 011 000 00
195630 2331N 08501W 9231 00774 0076 +231 +208 296011 011 011 000 00
195700 2329N 08502W 9231 00774 0076 +233 +209 300011 011 010 001 00
195730 2328N 08504W 9232 00774 0077 +230 +210 297010 010 008 001 00
195800 2327N 08505W 9232 00773 0078 +229 +213 296009 010 009 000 00
195830 2325N 08506W 9232 00774 0078 +230 +211 293009 009 009 001 00
195900 2324N 08508W 9232 00773 0077 +231 +211 300009 010 010 000 00
195930 2323N 08509W 9232 00774 0078 +230 +211 297010 010 010 000 00
200000 2322N 08511W 9232 00775 0078 +231 +210 303010 011 011 001 00
200030 2320N 08512W 9232 00775 0079 +232 +208 302011 011 010 000 00
200100 2319N 08514W 9232 00776 0079 +233 +208 300011 011 009 000 00
200130 2318N 08515W 9231 00777 0080 +233 +206 298012 012 009 000 00
200200 2316N 08517W 9232 00777 0080 +233 +203 300012 013 009 000 00

I need someone else to take over please!

[Extratropical94]

So given they have located winds 35kt, do you think NWS will update to tropical storm at 5pm?

Those were flight level, 30 knots seems ok at this point.

30 kt SFMR so it isn't quite there yet. But everyone gots to remember it only needs 32 Kt surface winds to be classified a TS (37 mph).

Actually, it's 34 knots (39 mph), but that amounts to the same thing

[otterlyspicey]

This thing is going to end up doing what the GFS has basically said all along. Lol. Tropical storm into the armpit of Florida. The atmosphere just wants to keep this thing down.

[terrapintransit]

This is not Ian yet??

[benh316]

Has a tropical storm been born?

Personally, I wouldn't upgrade the system as the stretch of 34+ kt winds were at flight level only (surface extrapolations stayed in the upper 20s) and execpt for that last ASCAT pass there is little evidence of a significant area of TS force surface winds.

Not to mention it looks as if the wind shear has somehow started to push the convection back away from the center of circulation - once again, hampering this systems ability to strengthen and consolidate into a unitary mass. Personally I think there is just too much movement in the tropics at the moment for any one system to develop without conflict or competing interests