ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[mobilebay]

This thing is going to end up doing what the GFS has basically said all along. Lol. Tropical storm into the armpit of Florida. The atmosphere just wants to keep this thing down.

Armpit of Florida....classic

[OntarioEggplant]

Did the plane die

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KWBC 292012
NOAA3 0709A CYCLONE HDOB 20 20160829
200230 2315N 08518W 9232 00777 0081 +232 +205 302012 012 011 001 00
200300 2314N 08520W 9232 00778 0081 +231 +210 302013 014 009 000 00
200330 2313N 08521W 9232 00777 0081 +231 +212 300013 013 010 000 00
200400 2311N 08522W 9232 00778 0081 +232 +214 297012 013 010 000 00
200430 2310N 08524W 9244 00764 0080 +231 +223 302011 012 014 000 00
200500 2309N 08525W 9227 00781 0078 +232 +212 299011 013 013 000 00
200530 2307N 08527W 9217 00788 0078 +230 +215 299012 012 012 000 00
200600 2306N 08528W 9224 00785 0080 +233 +207 298012 012 011 000 00
200630 2305N 08530W 9222 00786 0079 +234 +203 302012 013 010 000 00
200700 2303N 08531W 9222 00785 0077 +234 +202 302013 013 010 000 00
200730 2302N 08533W 9218 00788 0078 +235 +199 298014 015 010 000 00
200800 2301N 08534W 9222 00786 0080 +234 +205 293015 016 009 000 00
200830 2300N 08536W 9224 00786 0081 +234 +200 294016 016 009 000 00
200900 2258N 08537W 9223 00786 0081 +231 +207 296016 016 007 000 00
200930 2257N 08538W 9225 00785 0081 +231 +212 295015 016 012 002 03
201000 2255N 08539W 9222 00786 0080 +231 +211 300015 015 009 000 00
201030 2254N 08540W 9222 00785 0079 +232 +208 302016 017 011 000 00
201100 2252N 08541W 9222 00786 0079 +234 +207 300016 017 009 000 00
201130 2250N 08542W 9225 00787 0082 +232 +213 296016 016 008 000 00
201200 2248N 08542W 9222 00790 0083 +232 +211 292015 015 008 000 00

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KWBC 292012
NOAA3 0709A CYCLONE HDOB 20 20160829
200230 2315N 08518W 9232 00777 0081 +232 +205 302012 012 011 001 00
200300 2314N 08520W 9232 00778 0081 +231 +210 302013 014 009 000 00
200330 2313N 08521W 9232 00777 0081 +231 +212 300013 013 010 000 00
200400 2311N 08522W 9232 00778 0081 +232 +214 297012 013 010 000 00
200430 2310N 08524W 9244 00764 0080 +231 +223 302011 012 014 000 00
200500 2309N 08525W 9227 00781 0078 +232 +212 299011 013 013 000 00
200530 2307N 08527W 9217 00788 0078 +230 +215 299012 012 012 000 00
200600 2306N 08528W 9224 00785 0080 +233 +207 298012 012 011 000 00
200630 2305N 08530W 9222 00786 0079 +234 +203 302012 013 010 000 00
200700 2303N 08531W 9222 00785 0077 +234 +202 302013 013 010 000 00
200730 2302N 08533W 9218 00788 0078 +235 +199 298014 015 010 000 00
200800 2301N 08534W 9222 00786 0080 +234 +205 293015 016 009 000 00
200830 2300N 08536W 9224 00786 0081 +234 +200 294016 016 009 000 00
200900 2258N 08537W 9223 00786 0081 +231 +207 296016 016 007 000 00
200930 2257N 08538W 9225 00785 0081 +231 +212 295015 016 012 002 03
201000 2255N 08539W 9222 00786 0080 +231 +211 300015 015 009 000 00
201030 2254N 08540W 9222 00785 0079 +232 +208 302016 017 011 000 00
201100 2252N 08541W 9222 00786 0079 +234 +207 300016 017 009 000 00
201130 2250N 08542W 9225 00787 0082 +232 +213 296016 016 008 000 00
201200 2248N 08542W 9222 00790 0083 +232 +211 292015 015 008 000 00

[AJC3]

A question for the mets.
This pertains to td 8, but everyone is here so I'll ask here.

The ull that was limiting the development of td 8 has made landfall in SC.

Will landfall affect an ull?

Not at all. What will impact the structure of an ULL is deformation forces acting upon it by the ambient environmental wind flow.

They can also intensify/weaken depending upon the mass flow into or out of the circulation.

[StormHunter72]

Relevant posts?

[AJC3]

This is not Ian yet??

No. It's not Hermine either.

[hurricanehunter69]

I'm seeing an abundance of moisture to work with and an improving signature on ( Mimic-TPW ) http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KWBC 292022
NOAA3 0709A CYCLONE HDOB 21 20160829
201230 2247N 08543W 9224 00790 0086 +231 +209 294015 016 009 000 00
201300 2245N 08544W 9219 00791 0083 +233 +211 292014 015 008 001 00
201330 2243N 08545W 9201 00813 0084 +235 +197 294016 016 009 000 03
201400 2242N 08547W 9232 00783 0085 +231 +217 292016 017 009 000 00
201430 2241N 08548W 9241 00773 0086 +231 +216 295016 016 012 000 00
201500 2240N 08550W 9240 00775 0087 +233 +207 296016 016 013 000 00
201530 2238N 08551W 9240 00774 0086 +233 +213 295015 015 012 000 00
201600 2237N 08553W 9240 00775 0087 +233 +208 296014 014 014 000 00
201630 2236N 08554W 9240 00776 0088 +232 +211 296014 015 015 000 00
201700 2235N 08556W 9240 00778 0089 +231 +210 295015 015 015 000 00
201730 2234N 08557W 9240 00776 0089 +230 +217 303015 015 023 000 00
201800 2233N 08559W 9239 00778 0089 +233 +216 299017 018 023 003 00
201830 2232N 08601W 9241 00773 0087 +231 +217 303015 016 016 001 00
201900 2231N 08602W 9240 00776 0088 +233 +209 301017 018 016 000 00
201930 2230N 08604W 9238 00779 0089 +233 +207 302018 018 015 000 00
202000 2228N 08605W 9240 00775 0087 +233 +214 298017 018 016 000 03
202030 2227N 08605W 9190 00822 0086 +234 +197 302019 020 012 000 03
202100 2226N 08603W 8914 01090 0088 +217 +183 303019 019 016 000 03
202130 2226N 08601W 8484 01520 0087 +193 +163 302017 018 016 000 03
202200 2226N 08559W 8182 01829 0081 +181 +138 300015 015 017 000 00

Looks like they are heading home.

[Stormcenter]

If I didn't know better you would think the center was somewhere around the lower southwest coast of Cuba based on this loop....who knows?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

[mobilebay]

000
URNT15 KWBC 292022
NOAA3 0709A CYCLONE HDOB 21 20160829
201230 2247N 08543W 9224 00790 0086 +231 +209 294015 016 009 000 00
201300 2245N 08544W 9219 00791 0083 +233 +211 292014 015 008 001 00
201330 2243N 08545W 9201 00813 0084 +235 +197 294016 016 009 000 03
201400 2242N 08547W 9232 00783 0085 +231 +217 292016 017 009 000 00
201430 2241N 08548W 9241 00773 0086 +231 +216 295016 016 012 000 00
201500 2240N 08550W 9240 00775 0087 +233 +207 296016 016 013 000 00
201530 2238N 08551W 9240 00774 0086 +233 +213 295015 015 012 000 00
201600 2237N 08553W 9240 00775 0087 +233 +208 296014 014 014 000 00
201630 2236N 08554W 9240 00776 0088 +232 +211 296014 015 015 000 00
201700 2235N 08556W 9240 00778 0089 +231 +210 295015 015 015 000 00
201730 2234N 08557W 9240 00776 0089 +230 +217 303015 015 023 000 00
201800 2233N 08559W 9239 00778 0089 +233 +216 299017 018 023 003 00
201830 2232N 08601W 9241 00773 0087 +231 +217 303015 016 016 001 00
201900 2231N 08602W 9240 00776 0088 +233 +209 301017 018 016 000 00
201930 2230N 08604W 9238 00779 0089 +233 +207 302018 018 015 000 00
202000 2228N 08605W 9240 00775 0087 +233 +214 298017 018 016 000 03
202030 2227N 08605W 9190 00822 0086 +234 +197 302019 020 012 000 03
202100 2226N 08603W 8914 01090 0088 +217 +183 303019 019 016 000 03
202130 2226N 08601W 8484 01520 0087 +193 +163 302017 018 016 000 03
202200 2226N 08559W 8182 01829 0081 +181 +138 300015 015 017 000 00

Looks like they are heading home.

I may be wrong but it looks like they are flying southeast

[terrapintransit]

This is not Ian yet??

No. It's not Hermine either.

Maybe it didn't like either of thise names and is holding out for Julia??

[terrapintransit]

I am so lost with all these systems now that I thought Hermine had already formed by North Caroline...

[OntarioEggplant]

Looks like recon is going for the center of the coldest thunderstorms!

[jlauderdal]

This thing is going to end up doing what the GFS has basically said all along. Lol. Tropical storm into the armpit of Florida. The atmosphere just wants to keep this thing down.

Armpit of Florida....classic

if it doesn't hit the armpit then it will hit the redneck riviera

[Extratropical94]

They climbed to 700 mb to get enough clearance over Cuban terrain IMO

URNT15 KWBC 292032
NOAA3 0709A CYCLONE HDOB 22 20160829
202230 2226N 08557W 7967 02056 0078 +172 +125 293013 014 017 000 00
202300 2226N 08554W 7695 02351 0078 +154 +106 293014 015 020 000 00
202330 2226N 08552W 7485 02587 0079 +136 +102 296013 015 019 000 00
202400 2225N 08550W 7252 02853 0067 +131 +086 295013 013 014 000 00
202430 2225N 08548W 7051 03089 0066 +117 +082 289014 014 012 000 00
202500 2225N 08546W 6946 03212 0067 +110 +059 295012 012 009 000 00
202530 2224N 08543W 6959 03200 0070 +110 +064 291013 013 009 000 00
202600 2224N 08540W 6955 03207 0068 +111 +068 290015 015 009 000 00
202630 2223N 08538W 6950 03209 0067 +109 +069 291015 015 009 001 00
202700 2223N 08535W 6953 03205 0068 +108 +067 291015 016 009 000 00
202730 2222N 08533W 6953 03204 0068 +106 +078 288016 017 008 000 00
202800 2222N 08531W 6953 03203 0070 +104 +075 286016 017 010 000 00
202830 2221N 08528W 6949 03206 0073 +099 +081 282013 015 010 000 00
202900 2222N 08526W 6954 03202 0070 +106 +050 296015 017 010 001 03
202930 2222N 08523W 6953 03202 0073 +102 +060 294017 018 009 000 00
203000 2222N 08521W 6953 03201 0080 +094 +082 297018 019 009 000 00
203030 2223N 08519W 6952 03202 0072 +096 //// 282014 016 014 001 01
203100 2223N 08516W 6950 03202 0070 +099 +091 293013 015 013 000 00
203130 2224N 08514W 6954 03200 0070 +100 +088 298013 013 011 001 00
203200 2224N 08512W 6952 03202 0068 +103 +075 301013 013 010 000 00

[sponger]

Looks like recon is going for the center of the coldest thunderstorms!

Time for the final reading before 5:00!

[Nimbus]

Did the plane die

I think they found a pressure of 1006 but we will have to wait for the next vortex message to be sure.

[ScottNAtlanta]

This thing is going to end up doing what the GFS has basically said all along. Lol. Tropical storm into the armpit of Florida. The atmosphere just wants to keep this thing down.

Armpit of Florida....classic

If it aint the pit it aint legit

[ScottNAtlanta]

Did the plane die

I think they found a pressure of 1006 but we will have to wait for the next vortex message to be sure.

They are finding pressures lower now than where the vortex msgs were