ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Out of an abundance of caution I'll throw this in

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

9 Has been a very difficult system to forecast. I commend the NHC and really respect them for their ability to forecast systems where intensity forecasts are all over the place. I've been reading their discussions closely. At first I wondered why they kept it as a TS for several days in the GOM, but their discussion of mid level dry air and shear cleared it up. I am awaiting the 5 PM Advisory. My personal non expert forecast, is that since shear has been troublesome, it will struggle to reach TS status today. Once it does reach TS status, we will have to wait and see to see if the shear induced by the trough enhances or weakens the cyclone when it moves in tandem with the- correct me if I'm wrong- mid level winds that will steer it NE. For everyone in Tampa Bay, trust the NHC forecast. Right now I'm not too bullish on this system but I've been wrong many many times before. Granted even heavily sheared systems can reach 50-60 mph in strength, which as a weather enthusiast will get my attention.

[tropicwatch]

This thing is going to end up doing what the GFS has basically said all along. Lol. Tropical storm into the armpit of Florida. The atmosphere just wants to keep this thing down.

Armpit of Florida....classic

if it doesn't hit the armpit then it will hit the redneck riviera

Easy, oh wait a minute, how did I know where you were talking about

[bg1]

This is not Ian yet??

No. It's not Hermine either.

Maybe it didn't like either of thise names and is holding out for Julia??

I hope not. That would be, what, another 5 days of hand-wringing?

[SouthFLTropics]

I'm hearing this is going to be Hermine at 5:00PM. Any other reports on that?

[gatorcane]

Look carefully and you can see the LLC becoming exposed on northern fringe of convection:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/n ... PE=Instant

[NDG]

The LLC is now exposed, convection just doesn't want to keep moving along with it. Northerly shear is still affecting the system.

[wxsouth]

Did the plane die

I think they found a pressure of 1006 but we will have to wait for the next vortex message to be sure.

They are finding pressures lower now than where the vortex msgs were

The plane is flying higher now as it moves into the convection, which will skew the extrapolated surface pressures lower. Typically add a millibar or two to extrapolated values from 700mb.

[Extratropical94]

I don't know if i can trust these pressure estimates...
But there's another vortex or broad low to the south of the old one.


URNT15 KWBC 292042
NOAA3 0709A CYCLONE HDOB 23 20160829
203230 2225N 08509W 6952 03202 0069 +103 +076 296013 014 011 000 00
203300 2226N 08507W 6953 03201 0070 +102 +072 297014 015 013 000 00
203330 2226N 08505W 6952 03201 0068 +103 +075 297015 015 014 000 00
203400 2227N 08503W 6953 03200 0071 +101 +073 295015 016 013 000 00
203430 2227N 08500W 6954 03199 0073 +098 +073 292015 015 014 000 00
203500 2228N 08458W 6953 03200 0076 +096 +077 294013 013 015 000 00
203530 2228N 08456W 6953 03199 0074 +098 +074 291014 014 016 000 00
203600 2229N 08453W 6953 03200 0072 +100 +072 293014 014 020 000 00
203630 2230N 08451W 6956 03199 0073 +100 +074 293012 013 020 000 00
203700 2231N 08449W 6952 03200 0068 +103 +072 305009 010 020 000 03
203730 2233N 08448W 6957 03194 0066 +104 +075 315006 006 025 001 03
203800 2235N 08448W 6958 03196 0066 +104 +074 322008 009 025 001 00
203830 2237N 08448W 6958 03194 0064 +106 +071 323010 011 025 000 00
203900 2239N 08448W 6954 03198 0063 +107 +077 330009 011 028 001 00
203930 2241N 08448W 6958 03195 0065 +104 +093 359006 006 029 000 00
204000 2243N 08448W 6958 03190 0062 +102 +099 353002 003 028 002 00
204030 2245N 08447W 6958 03194 0049 +114 +089 011007 010 029 002 00
204100 2247N 08447W 6957 03192 0057 +110 +081 014007 009 026 002 00
204130 2249N 08447W 6953 03196 0052 +113 +079 028010 011 023 000 00
204200 2252N 08447W 6958 03192 0052 +111 +085 035009 012 026 000 00

[whatacane]

This thing is going to the Yucatan. going to get in the bay of Campeche ride all along the Mexico coastline, skirt the whole Texas coast line over to Louisiana skirt all the way to Florida to the pan handle. and do the same thing all over again. that's what I think lol. any one with me?

[BucMan2]

Tampa Hurricane- what type of weather should we expect in the bay area when this passes?

[tolakram]

[whatacane]

Look carefully and you can see the LLC becoming exposed on northern fringe of convection:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/n ... PE=Instant

I can not see it

[Blinhart]

So is the trough that is suppose to effecting this system actually the one that is in the GoM already, and if so what if this trough does what most troughs in this area and that is move N or NW into Texas, wouldn't that draw this system more along with it?

[tolakram]

[Blinhart]

This thing is going to the Yucatan. going to get in the bay of Campeche ride all along the Mexico coastline, skirt the whole Texas coast line over to Louisiana skirt all the way to Florida to the pan handle. and do the same thing all over again. that's what I think lol. any one with me?

The way it is going, I say why not. LMAO. This storm is just being stubborn and doing everything different.

[tolakram]

live visible

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=23&lon=-85&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=25&mapcolor=black

[OntarioEggplant]

Lol the real center is in the convection. That's a fake center that's naked

[ScottNAtlanta]

I think they found a pressure of 1006 but we will have to wait for the next vortex message to be sure.

They are finding pressures lower now than where the vortex msgs were

The plane is flying higher now as it moves into the convection, which will skew the extrapolated surface pressures lower. Typically add a millibar or two to extrapolated values from 700mb.

I just saw a pressure of 1004.9 and a wind shift to the NNE from NW on the last OB

[bg1]

This thing is going to the Yucatan. going to get in the bay of Campeche ride all along the Mexico coastline, skirt the whole Texas coast line over to Louisiana skirt all the way to Florida to the pan handle. and do the same thing all over again. that's what I think lol. any one with me?

And probably stay a depression the whole time too.

[drezee]

If I didn't know any better, I would say TD9 is hitting the reset button again. Recon found new mid-level Center due south of surface Center. Detached again...unless the MLS can go crazy with convection and suck the center back ...