ATL: JULIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

Interesting look at the NWS Jax radar. There is a good signature look just offshore.of Mayport and Jax Beach in that case it almost looks as if there is a center of circulation reforming.about 20-25 miles offshore. It looks impressive. I am missing my normal computer applications without power, but to me, it sure seems like that is happening off Jacksonville Beach. Is this just my eyes playing tricks with me? It looks to me that Julia is nudging off shore Jax Beach.ooms also that warbings may have to extended farther northif trends I am seeing continues into the overnight.

[LarryWx]

Interesting look at the NWS Jax radar. There is a good signature look just offshore.of Mayport and Jax Beach in that case it almost looks as if there is a center of circulation reforming.about 20-25 miles offshore. It looks impressive. I am missing my normal computer applications without power, but to me, it sure seems like that is happening off Jacksonville Beach. Is this just my eyes playing tricks with me? It looks to me that Julia is nudging off of the Jax Beach.

Good observation, Jax. I'm wondering about that myself. Maybe that's a mid level center?
Anyway, stay safe and hopefully you'll get your power back soon. It sounds like you've gone through a wild evening! Thanks for the reports.

[La Breeze]

This formed over land...pretty strange, although it may have been developing as it came ashore.

don't see this every day,

Not too strange about a month ago for my area - they never named the storm and we had over 28 inches of rain. Hopefully, the rain totals with Julia are not anywhere near what we received.

[Steve]

A lot of action for the SE Coast and Jacksonville metro this year - no doubt about it. Y'all enjoy the show but stay safe.

[AutoPenalti]

South Florida has been really lucky so far, no rain has hit us yet, not even a slight gust.

[jlauderdal]

looks like its on shore...systems have a tough time developing over open water but put them ten miles inland and you have a good setup it seems

[Hammy]

looks like its on shore...systems have a tough time developing over open water but put them ten miles inland and you have a good setup it seems

I do wonder sometimes if the difference between land and ocean can provide enough instability and convergence to keep a system going if it's close enough to tap into the moisture over the water.

And judging by the radar above, this seems like it's moving a little east of north from earlier.

[jlauderdal]

looks like its on shore...systems have a tough time developing over open water but put them ten miles inland and you have a good setup it seems

I do wonder sometimes if the difference between land and ocean can provide enough instability and convergence to keep a system going if it's close enough to tap into the moisture over the water.

And judging by the radar above, this seems like it's moving a little east of north from earlier.

yep...listen there isnt much difference really a few miles inland especially in florida/ga and the gulf coast where its flat..so even if the center is over the land its still tapping the very warm waters which is the energy...is it a perfect setup no, but the system needs warm water and there is plenty of it even in mid september


now if we get a cane to actually develop than we really have something to get excited about

[arlwx]

TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016
500 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2016

Julia continues to produce bands of showers and thunderstorms
primarily over water to the northeast of its center, but this
activity has become a little more separated from the center
overnight. The strong winds that occurred during the evening along
the northeast Florida coast have spread northward along the coast
of southern Georgia with recent surface observations reporting
wind gusts to tropical storm force. Julia should gradually weaken
during the next day or so due to continued land interaction and
westerly shear. The updated intensity forecast calls for Julia to
weaken to a tropical depression later today and become a remnant low
on Thursday. This is supported by the global models, which show the
low filling and wind field gradually diminishing over the next 36
hours.

Julia is moving northward at about 6 kt. The tropical cyclone is
forecast to slow down later today, and drift northward over eastern
Georgia during the next couple of days. The track guidance has
shifted eastward this cycle, and the official forecast has been
adjusted accordingly.

The slow forward speed of Julia is expected to result in locally
heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum amounts near
10 inches along the Georgia and South Carolina coastlines. These
rains could result in flash flooding.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 30.9N 81.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
12H 14/1800Z 31.6N 81.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 15/0600Z 31.9N 81.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 15/1800Z 32.1N 81.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 16/0600Z 32.2N 81.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

[tolakram]

Good morning, hopefully all stayed safe overnight.

Saved radar loops. MLC still offshore in my opinion, this really looks to be riding up the coast.





live ir
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=31&lon=-81&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=20&mapcolor=yellow

[Nimbus]

HWRF had this stalling after moving NNE for a while then moving almost due west before lifting out. Must be some ridging north of it?

[SeGaBob]

Looks like we won't get a drop of rain out of this...oh well.

[northjaxpro]

What a night it has been here in the Jacksonville area. We had Tropical Storm Julia form over the Jacksonville area, the center meandered over the the city for about 6. hours. Julia finally slowly pulled off to the north right along the coast and now just off shore of Brunswick, GA currently. My power has just come back on after being off all night.

During the peak of Julia here as she came right through my locale, had a peak wind gust just after midnight of 47 mph.Total rainfall was just under 5.5 inches. Lowest barometric reading at my locale : 1009.3 mb as Julia's COC.came right through.

Currently looking at local news and there were a few damage reports in.the metro area and some flooding near the coast, especially down toward St.Augustine.
All in all, it could I have all been much worse here in the Jax metro area.

I would say next to Beryl 's landfall here in 2012, this was one of the the more interesting.weather events I have monitored here. The fact that literally having a tropical storm form right over the you are on land and was the a very rare weather phenomenon.to experience that is for sure.

So, it has been a very active season here in Jax area and the rest of NE Florida and SE GA region.We have been impacted by a TS Colin, Hurricane Hermine and TS Julia. So Mother Nature is definitely for whatever reason has targeted this region for sure this season.

There is concern that Julia may stall later today as steering is forecast to get weak and it is possible to areas along Coastal Georgia could see major flooding if the stall happens. Will watch this carefully today.

[SeGaBob]

I think coastal Ga will miss out also unless a big unforseen shift west happens. It's pretty obvious now. Glad your power is back on.

[JaxGator]

What a night it has been here in the Jacksonville area. We had Tropical Storm Julia form over the Jacksonville area, the center meandered over the the city for about 6. hours. Julia finally slowly pulled off to the north right along the coast and now just off shore of Brunswick, GA currently. My power has just come back on after being off all night.

During the peak of Julia here as she came right through my locale, had a peak wind gust just after midnight of 47 mph.Total rainfall was just under 5.5 inches. Lowest barometric reading at my locale : 1009.3 mb as Julia's COC.came right through.

Currently looking at local news and there were a few damage reports in.the metro area and some flooding near the coast, especially down toward St.Augustine.
All in all, it could I have all been much worse here in the Jax metro area.

I would say next to Beryl 's landfall here in 2012, this was one of the the more interesting.weather events I have monitored here. The fact that literally having a tropical storm form right over the you are on land and was the a very rare weather phenomenon.to experience that is for sure.

So, it has been a very active season here in Jax area and the rest of NE Florida and SE GA region.We have been impacted by a TS Colin, Hurricane Hermine and TS Julia. So Mother Nature is definitely for whatever reason has targeted this region for sure this season.

There is concern that Julia may stall later today as steering is forecast to get weak and it is possible to areas along Coastal Georgia could see major flooding if the stall happens. Will watch this carefully today.

You said it. Beryl was unique but Julia defines uniqueness. Glad you got your power back on. There's a video on YouTube by Tornado Trackers that show the center band hit St. Augustine thru Guana (the gas station), Ponta Vetra and perhaps Jax Beach. It was pretty cool. And yeah, we have been under the gun this season. Hopefully not a sign for things to come.

[JaxGator]

And I'm also concerned about Julia stalling too. The trough to the north would prevent her an escape route.

[tolakram]

First visible, sure looks offshore, having trouble finding an LLC over land.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=31&lon=-81&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5&mapcolor=yellow

[LarryWx]

:uarrow: I think coastal Ga will miss out also unless a big unforseen shift west happens. It's pretty obvious now. Glad your power is back on.

Yeah, there has been little rainfall overnight in SAV from this. She does seem to be moving east of the model consensus and actually went NNE over the last few hours. Perhaps, the convection over water is causing her to move east of the models? If this continues, we may get little additional rainfall from her. Let's see what happens.

[JaxGator]

There is also a Chevron gas station in Atlantic Beach that got a part of the overhang blown off. The station is still open but gas is unavailable for now.

[xironman]

SAXG1 still has an ENE wind at 20kt. You would think if it was well inland that would switch to SE http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=saxg1