ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AJC3]

I can not see it

[whatacane]

I can not see it

I think it is more south and west?

[NDG]

So another LLC has formed further south? That's what it looks like.

[Aric Dunn]

recon just passed through the other vort to the south they are rotating around each other. so the true motion is not likely that of the vort moving out away from the convection.

[Aric Dunn]

So another LLC has formed further south? That's what it looks like.

posted a radar image from the noaa plane earlier.

[SouthFLTropics]

This thing is going to the Yucatan. going to get in the bay of Campeche ride all along the Mexico coastline, skirt the whole Texas coast line over to Louisiana skirt all the way to Florida to the pan handle. and do the same thing all over again. that's what I think lol. any one with me?

The way it is going, I say why not. LMAO. This storm is just being stubborn and doing everything different.

1998 has been mentioned as an analog year to this year. While not the same in strength as TD9 is, it should be mentioned that Hurricane Mitch that year confused all the models and forecasters at the time. Mitch was forecasted to go into the GOM and instead dove south into the Gulf of Honduras and devastated Central America. The change in track most likely ended up costing the lives of the entire crew on the cruise ship Fantome. They attempted to escape the storm by heading east, based on the forecast path. Unfortunately Mitch didn't follow the forecast and dove south and they sailed right into the eye of the storm and were never seen again.

[Blinhart]

I can not see it

I think it is more south and west?

That is what I think I think it is almost in between Cuba and the Yucatan.

Edit around 22.5N 85.1W

[BobHarlem]

No Upgrade, still TD#9

[HurriGuy]

They are flying higher. MLC

[whatacane]

Hey Atlantic! "MAKE HURRICANES GREAT AGAIN !" I THINK YHE ATLANTIC ALLREADY BUILT A WALL ! LOL

[OntarioEggplant]

1002 MB extrap in the convection lol.

This storm I swear

[Extratropical94]

Pressure readings prob having a negative bias.

URNT15 KWBC 292052
NOAA3 0709A CYCLONE HDOB 24 20160829
204230 2254N 08447W 6989 03151 0049 +114 +083 051007 009 027 001 00
204300 2256N 08447W 6953 03194 0049 +114 +082 085005 007 026 000 00
204330 2258N 08446W 6953 03193 0045 +115 +074 109005 007 025 000 00
204400 2300N 08446W 6949 03196 0041 +117 +067 107005 006 025 001 00
204430 2302N 08446W 6952 03194 0035 +122 +065 116005 006 025 000 00
204500 2304N 08446W 6949 03195 0033 +123 +066 176006 007 022 000 00
204530 2306N 08446W 6948 03196 0035 +124 +051 198006 007 019 000 00
204600 2309N 08446W 6950 03195 0035 +124 +055 207006 008 015 000 00
204630 2311N 08446W 6954 03191 0026 +131 +053 200006 007 014 000 00
204700 2313N 08445W 6948 03196 0030 +126 +060 227006 007 013 000 00
204730 2315N 08445W 6951 03193 0031 +125 +060 220006 007 013 000 00
204800 2317N 08445W 6953 03192 0023 +131 +067 220006 006 013 000 00
204830 2319N 08445W 6953 03191 0021 +132 +067 229006 007 012 000 00
204900 2321N 08445W 6950 03193 0029 +123 +084 245007 008 010 000 00
204930 2324N 08445W 6951 03192 0029 +123 +090 248007 008 010 000 00
205000 2326N 08444W 6953 03190 0034 +119 +086 277006 007 010 000 00
205030 2328N 08444W 6954 03189 0031 +124 +072 271005 005 010 000 00
205100 2330N 08444W 6952 03192 0035 +122 +063 256004 004 008 000 00
205130 2332N 08444W 6954 03190 0038 +118 +076 262004 004 009 000 00
205200 2334N 08444W 6953 03191 0042 +115 +077 262004 005 009 000 00

[bg1]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
500 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

...GASTON EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY TUESDAY...

First it's been called Earl, now Gaston... Therefore, it will be Ian.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Tampa Hurricane- what type of weather should we expect in the bay area when this passes?

To be honest, I'm actually feeling super uncertain about what will happen. I've been reading the www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw and nhc.noaa.gov discussions: we will probably get lots and lots of rain. As for wind intensity: NWS says 40+ mph is possible Thursday.

[AJC3]

I can not see it

I think it is more south and west?

Not according to recon.

[NDG]

[Aric Dunn]

here is another radar scan of the other potential vort that recon just passed though.

[ConvergenceZone]

Man this is storm looks horrible

[ronjon]

LOL - someone needs to proofread this stuff before it goes out.

000
WTNT34 KNHC 292052
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
500 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

...GASTON EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY TUESDAY...

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 5...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
500 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

CORRECTED HEADLINE

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 84.8W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM WSW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
500 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

The tropical cyclone's cloud pattern has not become better organized
this afternoon, with the low-level center partially exposed just to
the north of a ragged-looking area of deep convection. Observations
from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft support keeping the intensity
at 30 kt at this time. Given the system's currently disorganized
appearance, it does not seem likely that there will be much
strengthening in the short term. Since the cyclone will be moving
over very waters and in an environment of moderate westerly shear,
however, gradual intensification is expected during the next couple
of days. When the system nears the Florida Gulf coast, increasing
upper-level winds should limit strengthening. The official
intensity forecast is close to the model consensus.

Based on fixes from the NOAA aircraft, the motion is a slow 290/4
kt. There is little change to the expected steering flow evolution.
In 2-3 days, a mid-tropospheric trough is forecast to begin digging
over the southeastern United States. This feature should cause the
tropical cyclone to turn toward the right while it moves over the
eastern Gulf, and to accelerate northeastward across northern
Florida. The official track forecast is essentially a blend of the
latest ECMWF and GFS predictions.

Given the current forecast, a tropical storm or hurricane watch may
be required for a portion of the Florida Gulf coast as early as
tomorrow morning.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 24.0N 84.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 24.2N 85.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 24.6N 86.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 31/0600Z 25.5N 87.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 31/1800Z 26.8N 86.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 29.3N 83.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 02/1800Z 32.5N 77.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 03/1800Z 35.0N 70.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch