ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Ken711]

What direction and speed is Matthew currently headed?

[Michele B]

If you don't want your house to pop you better have a plethora of hurricane straps connecting all the framing members, from the ground up to the crown of the roof... and all points in between... most houses are not tight enough for it to just pop from having all the windows closed...... usually a failure of the roof structure, or window, or garage door fails allowing the wind to breach the house, causing massive wind damage in the case of a major storm...

No. It's not wind, it's pressure differential.

When the storm approaches and the barometric pressure drops, but your house is buttoned up, and still has (relatively) high pressure locked up inside it can "bow" the windows - or maybe even the walls! The house will try to EVEN UP the pressure, lower it, if you will, so pressurize with what is outside....which will blow the windows (and maybe even the roof).y

You DO NOT WANT THE STORM INSIDE YOUR HOUSE; this is the reason you only open a window ON THE OPPOSITE SIDE. NO WIND COMING IN. Just enough to allow the higher pressure to escape.

I can't even begin to tell you how much bad advice you're giving, poor actions you've taken, and bad meteorology you're espousing.

1. If the wind was blowing so hard as to make glass windows or sliders bow in then they should have been covered by hurricane shutters or plywood. An uncovered window or glass door is an open invitation for debris to come through it. Once that happens, you run the risk of ceiling/roof failure. The last thing you should have been doing in that situation is running around doing stuff to your windows. Never open windows in a hurricane. Never.

2. It's not the barometric pressure. It's the force of the wind. There are enough cracks, crevices, vents and ducts in your house to where pressure will be equalized. It's a house. Not a jet airliner.

Sorry you disagree, AJC, but I will continue to do so.

As far as the glass sliders? They WERE covered. With metal hurricane panels. Still bowed in.

We will agree to disagree, but I will continue to do what I have done in hurricanes for 60 years!

**I am therefore formally stating that I AM GIVING *NO ONE* advice about what they need to do in their own homes.**

[Slughitter3]

As I've mentioned, I've been mostly a lurker over the past 3ish years, but have been obsessed with meteorology since I was a little kid. I may be young (26), but I used to print out the basin charts each hurricane season and plot all of the storms, I taught myself lat and long that way. I can't thank you all enough for the amazing education that has come from this group, it's really incredible and has allowed me to learn enough to provide insight to my supervisors and even make changes within my units.

Anyway, I have a request, ADMIN if this goes somewhere else please let me know, I have seen people post various analogs, Hazel, Floyd, and others and I get the first step to finding an analog, check historical tracks and find one that looks relatively close, this is where my question begins. How do I go about finding upper atmosphere, (500, 700, 850mb) maps from times when analog storms occurred? For example, if I want to compare the 500mb pattern from Floyd in 99, where do I find them? I appreciate any help, I'm really trying to learn and most of what I know is self taught.

Thanks for the help.

[SouthFLTropics]

As I've mentioned, I've been mostly a lurker over the past 3ish years, but have been obsessed with meteorology since I was a little kid. I may be young (26), but I used to print out the basin charts each hurricane season and plot all of the storms, I taught myself lat and long that way. I can't thank you all enough for the amazing education that has come from this group, it's really incredible and has allowed me to learn enough to provide insight to my supervisors and even make changes within my units.

Anyway, I have a request, ADMIN if this goes somewhere else please let me know, I have seen people post various analogs, Hazel, Floyd, and others and I get the first step to finding an analog, check historical tracks and find one that looks relatively close, this is where my question begins. How do I go about finding upper atmosphere, (500, 700, 850mb) maps from times when analog storms occurred? For example, if I want to compare the 500mb pattern from Floyd in 99, where do I find them? I appreciate any help, I'm really trying to learn and most of what I know is self taught.

Thanks for the help.

Welcome to the board. I can't help you with what you're looking for but that would be some excellent data to have.

[Rail Dawg]

I live in Houston and am leaving to go into where Matthew potentially makes landfall.

I've done this countless times but I think this time is going to be a little different.

Loaded for bear and have some supplies to share with those truly devastated.

This is going to be a record-setting evacuation I'm afraid.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

As I've mentioned, I've been mostly a lurker over the past 3ish years, but have been obsessed with meteorology since I was a little kid. I may be young (26), but I used to print out the basin charts each hurricane season and plot all of the storms, I taught myself lat and long that way. I can't thank you all enough for the amazing education that has come from this group, it's really incredible and has allowed me to learn enough to provide insight to my supervisors and even make changes within my units.

Anyway, I have a request, ADMIN if this goes somewhere else please let me know, I have seen people post various analogs, Hazel, Floyd, and others and I get the first step to finding an analog, check historical tracks and find one that looks relatively close, this is where my question begins. How do I go about finding upper atmosphere, (500, 700, 850mb) maps from times when analog storms occurred? For example, if I want to compare the 500mb pattern from Floyd in 99, where do I find them? I appreciate any help, I'm really trying to learn and most of what I know is self taught.

Thanks for the help.

This site might help for Hazel -

https://www.ec.gc.ca/ouragans-hurricane ... A9-1#Storm Information

[deltadog03]

I admit I have not been watching this very much, work has been keeping me very busy, but this has my attention. I wouldn't be surprised if this makes a landfall of some type in the SE before catching the next wave OTS.

[TheStormExpert]

Joined this forum back at the beginning of 2011 after the very active and fortunately landfall quiet 2010 season we had here in the U.S. I remember finding S2K in the beginning of June 2010 and lurked until I registered in 2011. Anyways, I too have a gut feeling now that this is the real deal for Florida and may be a rude awakening for very many who have never experienced a legit full-blown hurricane here in S. FL or all of Florida for that matter. Praying and hoping some good news erupts overnight in terms of track and or intensity but as we are just days away from potential impacts that is becoming less and less likely quickly. Went through Hurricanes Frances & Jeanne as a 10 year old, along with Hurricane Wilma as a 12 year old and remember them quite well still. STAY SAFE EVERYONE & FELLOW S2K'ers!

[floridasun78]

i think watch will issue 5am most other hurr i seen here issue in morning

[abajan]

Oh, no. This looks really bad, really strong. Could very well get to cat 5 or really close now just before closest approach to Haiti.

I couldn't agree more. It looks intense wind-wise, and it's packed with an incredible amount of moisture. Potential storm of the century in the making IMO.

[floridasun78]

last big hurr south fl and fl was wilma and andrew

[GCANE]

Very high rain rate on the eyewall.
Indicates core still being heated and intensifying.

[Alyono]

appears to be some SSW shear over this. It has lost its southwestern outflow. This COULD keep it from becoming a cat 5 before striking Haiti

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

This might also help for Hazel, sorry the pics aren't bigger -

https://www.ecu.edu/renci/StormsToLife/ ... ermap1.jpg

[marciacubed]

Well folks, long time S2K'ers, fellow Floridians, newbies on the board. It's been quite some time since we've done this but I'm really getting the feeling that this is the real deal for us here in Florida. Many of us have been here on the board a long time and remember the countless storms that we've all been through. I was a member on the old GoPBI page and came over to S2K when it started. Many of us are like family here and have indirectly known each other for a long time. I want to take the time to thank all the members and mets that provide valuable info as well as the administrators and moderators for the site. Hurricane season wouldn't be the same without S2K and I always feel a step ahead by being a member on the board. Good luck to everyone while we start preps.

I have been on since GoPbi too I mostly lurk and have learned quite a bit over the years. Thank you for all you have done.

[HurricaneFrances04]

i think watch will issue 5am most other hurr i seen here issue in morning

When Frances was heading towards Florida, they issued the hurricane watch at 11 pm. Advisory time doesn't matter. They go by 48 hours before the first effects of the storm.

[AutoPenalti]

Very high rain rate on the eyewall.
Indicates core still being heated and intensifying.

http://i63.tinypic.com/2e66135.jpg

appears to be some SSW shear over this. It has lost its southwestern outflow. This COULD keep it from becoming a cat 5 before striking Haiti

Well, which is it? Lol

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Very high rain rate on the eyewall.
Indicates core still being heated and intensifying.

http://i63.tinypic.com/2e66135.jpg

very impressive

[ThetaE]

As I've mentioned, I've been mostly a lurker over the past 3ish years, but have been obsessed with meteorology since I was a little kid. I may be young (26), but I used to print out the basin charts each hurricane season and plot all of the storms, I taught myself lat and long that way. I can't thank you all enough for the amazing education that has come from this group, it's really incredible and has allowed me to learn enough to provide insight to my supervisors and even make changes within my units.

Anyway, I have a request, ADMIN if this goes somewhere else please let me know, I have seen people post various analogs, Hazel, Floyd, and others and I get the first step to finding an analog, check historical tracks and find one that looks relatively close, this is where my question begins. How do I go about finding upper atmosphere, (500, 700, 850mb) maps from times when analog storms occurred? For example, if I want to compare the 500mb pattern from Floyd in 99, where do I find them? I appreciate any help, I'm really trying to learn and most of what I know is self taught.

Thanks for the help.

This site might help for Hazel -

https://www.ec.gc.ca/ouragans-hurricane ... A9-1#Storm Information

Good website! I skimmed through it, and found this to be a very interesting paragraph:

A lot happens in the final 24 hours between the last two maps. The trough continues “digging” southward while the ridge over Atlantic Canada amplifies greatly. The development strengthens the northward flowing airstream over the eastern continent while also setting up the potential for a strong storm system to form somewhere near or south of the Great Lakes. Hazel moves inland and begins dying, as all tropical cyclones do when they move over land and are cut-off from their oceanic energy source. However, the dying process isn’t immediate and can take more than a day for a powerful hurricane like Hazel. The decaying remnants of Hazel move rapidly northward in the strengthening flow between the trough and ridge, arriving south of the Great Lakes about the same time that an extratropical cyclone was in the process of forming. The result was not unlike throwing kerosene on a newly-formed fire: an explosive atmospheric reaction.

I mentioned this a few pages back; basically, the further south the trough currently entering the western US digs, the more likely a Hazel-like path becomes. This isn't currently a solution explicitly backed up by any models, but the amplitude of the incoming trough is certainly a variable with a lot of potential to change, as our data collection isn't that good over the Pacific.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

DO NOT OPEN WINDOWS IN A HURRICANE:
http://www.snopes.com/science/hurricane.asp