ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[gatorcane]

Expanding in size...

[AtlanticWind]

Just reading an article about a vice mayor in an Haitian town pounding on tin shacks asking the people to move to a safer place
The people say where are we to go and how are we suppose to get there.

This is going to be a sad night.

[sponger]

Looks like Haiti is a hour or two from getting into the core. Going to be hell on Earth on the Western tip. Hopefully they are better prepared than other storms. I don't know how much prep can be done when 65K are still in tents.

[Frank P]

No. It's not wind, it's pressure differential.

When the storm approaches and the barometric pressure drops, but your house is buttoned up, and still has (relatively) high pressure locked up inside it can "bow" the windows - or maybe even the walls! The house will try to EVEN UP the pressure, lower it, if you will, so pressurize with what is outside....which will blow the windows (and maybe even the roof).y

You DO NOT WANT THE STORM INSIDE YOUR HOUSE; this is the reason you only open a window ON THE OPPOSITE SIDE. NO WIND COMING IN. Just enough to allow the higher pressure to escape.

I can't even begin to tell you how much bad advice you're giving, poor actions you've taken, and bad meteorology you're espousing.

1. If the wind was blowing so hard as to make glass windows or sliders bow in then they should have been covered by hurricane shutters or plywood. An uncovered window or glass door is an open invitation for debris to come through it. Once that happens, you run the risk of ceiling/roof failure. The last thing you should have been doing in that situation is running around doing stuff to your windows. Never open windows in a hurricane. Never.

2. It's not the barometric pressure. It's the force of the wind. There are enough cracks, crevices, vents and ducts in your house to where pressure will be equalized. It's a house. Not a jet airliner.

Sorry you disagree, AJC, but I will continue to do so.

As far as the glass sliders? They WERE covered. With metal hurricane panels. Still bowed in.

We will agree to disagree, but I will continue to do what I have done in hurricanes for 60 years!

**I am therefore formally stating that I AM GIVING *NO ONE* advice about what they need to do in their own homes.**

From NOAA's Hurricane Research Division
Subject: C6) During a hurricane are you supposed to have the windows and doors on the storm side closed and the windows and doors on the lee side open?
Contributed by Chris Landsea (NHC)

No! All of the doors and windows should be closed (and shuttered) throughout the duration of the hurricane. The pressure differences between inside your house and outside in the storm do not build up enough to cause any damaging explosions. (No house is built airtight.)
The winds in a hurricane are highly turbulent and an open window or door - even if in the lee side of the house - can be an open target to flying debris. All exterior windows should be boarded up with either wooden or metal shutters.

I think this pretty much sums it up, and as I have built several fortified houses along the beach, I would never recommend to anyone to ever open their windows during a storm, unless they just want to collect on the insurance money.

[Nimbus]

There must be an archive of water vapor loop imagery available somewhere.
Its an excellent source for determining steering currents, jet stream location and even the high cirrus clouds outlining the ridges. I used to do modeling for property insurance years ago and always wondered if we could build some AI program based on WV imagery presentation and corresponding storm characteristic experience.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrwv.html

[GTStorm]

Oh, no. This looks really bad, really strong. Could very well get to cat 5 or really close now just before closest approach to Haiti.

I couldn't agree more. It looks intense wind-wise, and it's packed with an incredible amount of moisture. Potential storm of the century in the making IMO.

Probably not. Don't be surprised if Matthew ultimately takes a more easterly / north-easterly track, sparing everyone anything, at least in the CONUS. This is October, after all, the season of the advancing troughs. For the folks in the Bahamas, and Haiti...prayers out to all of them, who clearly look to bear the brunt of this mess...

[Slughitter3]

As I've mentioned, I've been mostly a lurker over the past 3ish years, but have been obsessed with meteorology since I was a little kid. I may be young (26), but I used to print out the basin charts each hurricane season and plot all of the storms, I taught myself lat and long that way. I can't thank you all enough for the amazing education that has come from this group, it's really incredible and has allowed me to learn enough to provide insight to my supervisors and even make changes within my units.

Anyway, I have a request, ADMIN if this goes somewhere else please let me know, I have seen people post various analogs, Hazel, Floyd, and others and I get the first step to finding an analog, check historical tracks and find one that looks relatively close, this is where my question begins. How do I go about finding upper atmosphere, (500, 700, 850mb) maps from times when analog storms occurred? For example, if I want to compare the 500mb pattern from Floyd in 99, where do I find them? I appreciate any help, I'm really trying to learn and most of what I know is self taught.

Thanks for the help.

This site might help for Hazel -

https://www.ec.gc.ca/ouragans-hurricane ... A9-1#Storm Information

Thank you!! I'll check it out and see if I can stumble my way through the information.

[SunnyThoughts]

Got a question, back when we were watching Hermine, there was a satellite view that had like HD clairty...Haven't seen it yet this go around...anybody remember that or have a link to that view with this system, or does it even exist anymore?

[terstorm1012]

As I've mentioned, I've been mostly a lurker over the past 3ish years, but have been obsessed with meteorology since I was a little kid. I may be young (26), but I used to print out the basin charts each hurricane season and plot all of the storms, I taught myself lat and long that way. I can't thank you all enough for the amazing education that has come from this group, it's really incredible and has allowed me to learn enough to provide insight to my supervisors and even make changes within my units.

Anyway, I have a request, ADMIN if this goes somewhere else please let me know, I have seen people post various analogs, Hazel, Floyd, and others and I get the first step to finding an analog, check historical tracks and find one that looks relatively close, this is where my question begins. How do I go about finding upper atmosphere, (500, 700, 850mb) maps from times when analog storms occurred? For example, if I want to compare the 500mb pattern from Floyd in 99, where do I find them? I appreciate any help, I'm really trying to learn and most of what I know is self taught.

Thanks for the help.

Welcome to the board. I can't help you with what you're looking for but that would be some excellent data to have.

I posted some about 50 pages back, maybe farther. There are some similarities in the upper air pattern to Hazel. Here they are again:
Synoptic Maps: http://www.lib.noaa.gov/collections/img ... phere.html (here's the actual map: http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/swm/1954/19541015.pdf Note the huge trough in the Midwest, that is what picked Hazel up and hurled it into Canada)

This post report has some maps: https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/ ... 195409.pdf . Look at those wind velocities on page 7--they still haven't been exceeded in many East Coast cities.

here's a blogpost pre-Sandy: http://www.footsforecast.org/2012/10/wh ... tween.html

[Slughitter3]

As I've mentioned, I've been mostly a lurker over the past 3ish years, but have been obsessed with meteorology since I was a little kid. I may be young (26), but I used to print out the basin charts each hurricane season and plot all of the storms, I taught myself lat and long that way. I can't thank you all enough for the amazing education that has come from this group, it's really incredible and has allowed me to learn enough to provide insight to my supervisors and even make changes within my units.

Anyway, I have a request, ADMIN if this goes somewhere else please let me know, I have seen people post various analogs, Hazel, Floyd, and others and I get the first step to finding an analog, check historical tracks and find one that looks relatively close, this is where my question begins. How do I go about finding upper atmosphere, (500, 700, 850mb) maps from times when analog storms occurred? For example, if I want to compare the 500mb pattern from Floyd in 99, where do I find them? I appreciate any help, I'm really trying to learn and most of what I know is self taught.

Thanks for the help.

Welcome to the board. I can't help you with what you're looking for but that would be some excellent data to have.

Thank you for the welcome, I really enjoy it on here. I've been able to learn so much.

[HurricaneFrances04]

If I'm not mistaken, if a hurricane watch is issued, it'll be the first one for palm beach county since 2006 (Ernesto).

[Chris_in_Tampa]

I think this pretty much sums it up, and as I have built several fortified houses along the beach, I would never recommend to anyone to ever open their windows during a storm, unless they just want to collect on the insurance money.

But if they somehow found out you opened your windows, you might not be collecting anything.

[HDGator]

Well folks, long time S2K'ers, fellow Floridians, newbies on the board. It's been quite some time since we've done this but I'm really getting the feeling that this is the real deal for us here in Florida. Many of us have been here on the board a long time and remember the countless storms that we've all been through. I was a member on the old GoPBI page and came over to S2K when it started. Many of us are like family here and have indirectly known each other for a long time. I want to take the time to thank all the members and mets that provide valuable info as well as the administrators and moderators for the site. Hurricane season wouldn't be the same without S2K and I always feel a step ahead by being a member on the board. Good luck to everyone while we start preps.

I will second the "step ahead" that this board gives us. You typically know where the trend is going hours ahead of everyone else. And the family here has been great through the years, even for those of us that are 'quiet'. I was a lurker back to the GoPBI board and have been here ever since the move. But the hell of 2004/5 really showed the value of this community.

My real concern is that with Matthew we are on a knife's edge right now between a minor/medium wind event on the east coast vs. an outright disaster. This is based on several reasons:

The worst case of a Cat 3/4 scraping up the east coast of Florida and impacting the Carolinas (ignoring the northeast for now) would be devastating.
It's been 11 years since our last real storm - there are a lot of new residents from non-hurricane locales.
There will be no substantial evacuations out of the area, just local efforts to move people out of a potential surge impact.
Most that I speak to have no supplies and are just now thinking about stocking up.
I hate to cry wolf but have long been concerned about the potential of a storm to do what Matthew is threatening.

I just hope he stays off coast enough to keep this from turning into the east coast's Katrina.

Good Luck! and Stay Safe People! --- Be Prepared!

[SouthFLTropics]

Oh, no. This looks really bad, really strong. Could very well get to cat 5 or really close now just before closest approach to Haiti.

I couldn't agree more. It looks intense wind-wise, and it's packed with an incredible amount of moisture. Potential storm of the century in the making IMO.

Probably not. Don't be surprised if Matthew ultimately takes a more easterly / north-easterly track, sparing everyone anything, at least in the CONUS. This is October, after all, the season of the advancing troughs. For the folks in the Bahamas, and Haiti...prayers out to all of them, who clearly look to bear the brunt of this mess...

This is not what the current scientific data shows. And while what you say about October is normally true, this hasn't been a typical Summer/Fall pattern. The October pattern is about 3 to 4 weeks behind here in Florida.

[sponger]

Got a question, back when we were watching Hermine, there was a satellite view that had like HD clairty...Haven't seen it yet this go around...anybody remember that or have a link to that view with this system, or does it even exist anymore?

It the GOES rapid scan setting. Software upgrade or something has it down.

[SunnyThoughts]

Got a question, back when we were watching Hermine, there was a satellite view that had like HD clairty...Haven't seen it yet this go around...anybody remember that or have a link to that view with this system, or does it even exist anymore?

It the GOES rapid scan setting. Software upgrade or something has it down.

Awww ok gotcha, thanks for the reply.

[psyclone]

The idea of opening windows in a tornado or hurricane (the theory that building "explode" in extreme winds due to rapid pressure drops) was discredited decades ago. We have been (properly counseled) against that for no less than 25 years. This is close to "flat Earth" material.

[RL3AO]

Got a question, back when we were watching Hermine, there was a satellite view that had like HD clairty...Haven't seen it yet this go around...anybody remember that or have a link to that view with this system, or does it even exist anymore?

It the GOES rapid scan setting. Software upgrade or something has it down.

It's an occasional feature they've scheduled throughout the summer in preparation for GOES-R. One of those scheduled periods was during Hermine.

[terstorm1012]

I don't think models would have handled Hazel all that well either, had they existed in 1954.

[Slughitter3]

As I've mentioned, I've been mostly a lurker over the past 3ish years, but have been obsessed with meteorology since I was a little kid. I may be young (26), but I used to print out the basin charts each hurricane season and plot all of the storms, I taught myself lat and long that way. I can't thank you all enough for the amazing education that has come from this group, it's really incredible and has allowed me to learn enough to provide insight to my supervisors and even make changes within my units.

Anyway, I have a request, ADMIN if this goes somewhere else please let me know, I have seen people post various analogs, Hazel, Floyd, and others and I get the first step to finding an analog, check historical tracks and find one that looks relatively close, this is where my question begins. How do I go about finding upper atmosphere, (500, 700, 850mb) maps from times when analog storms occurred? For example, if I want to compare the 500mb pattern from Floyd in 99, where do I find them? I appreciate any help, I'm really trying to learn and most of what I know is self taught.

Thanks for the help.

Welcome to the board. I can't help you with what you're looking for but that would be some excellent data to have.

I posted some about 50 pages back, maybe farther. There are some similarities in the upper air pattern to Hazel. Here they are again:
Synoptic Maps: http://www.lib.noaa.gov/collections/img ... phere.html (here's the actual map: http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/swm/1954/19541015.pdf Note the huge trough in the Midwest, that is what picked Hazel up and hurled it into Canada)

This post report has some maps: https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/ ... 195409.pdf . Look at those wind velocities on page 7--they still haven't been exceeded in many East Coast cities.

here's a blogpost pre-Sandy: http://www.footsforecast.org/2012/10/wh ... tween.html

Thank you! I beginning to realize there isn't really a repository of old upper air maps? Just what has happened from past storms and what's in the history books?