ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Alyono]

a center relocation to the south means a possible track toward Tampa

[SunnyThoughts]

Just got home from work, and clicked on satellite view...and my mouth dropped. Looked as if it had become much much better organized...( from far away sat pic) lol. That S formation. I see you guys seem to think another llc may be trying to take over farther south..That would put the system out over the water for a while longer than expected I would think. What a trip watching this thing has been. Hopefully we will know more in the next day or so, course we've been saying that for a week now.

Yes, having the center further south would have it more time over water. Depending on how it interacts with the anti-cyclone and other conditions, it could become a stronger system.

Makes sense could be stronger being over the water longer, I'm prepared here whether I need to be or not ( Pensacola) Work says to play it by ear on Wednesday...to see where we are at that point. I know all the models seem to point well East of here...but we never let our guard down here until its actually land falling. Good luck to everybody in the path, hopefully will only gain TS status and not be too bad for wherever it happens to head inland.

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KWBC 292252
NOAA3 0709A CYCLONE HDOB 36 20160829
224230 2354N 08301W 6961 03190 0066 +105 +080 132015 016 016 000 03
224300 2352N 08302W 6961 03191 0068 +103 +080 135014 014 010 001 03
224330 2351N 08304W 6958 03196 0076 +097 +083 139012 012 016 000 00
224400 2349N 08306W 6960 03193 0080 +095 +079 139012 013 014 000 00
224430 2348N 08308W 6959 03195 0077 +098 +072 138010 010 014 000 00
224500 2347N 08310W 6959 03194 0073 +100 +074 133009 011 014 000 00
224530 2346N 08312W 6959 03193 0076 +097 +079 103006 006 014 000 00
224600 2344N 08314W 6960 03192 0074 +098 +073 110006 006 014 000 00
224630 2343N 08316W 6960 03192 0076 +097 +071 117007 007 012 000 00
224700 2342N 08318W 6959 03193 0077 +096 +069 132008 009 013 000 00
224730 2341N 08320W 6960 03192 0074 +100 +061 135010 010 013 000 00
224800 2340N 08322W 6960 03191 0069 +103 +059 129010 010 014 000 00
224830 2338N 08323W 6961 03189 0067 +105 +057 123010 010 014 000 00
224900 2337N 08325W 6960 03190 0063 +107 +060 116010 010 015 000 00
224930 2336N 08327W 6960 03189 0061 +108 +060 110010 011 016 000 00
225000 2335N 08329W 6960 03189 0060 +109 +057 109011 011 015 000 00
225030 2333N 08331W 6960 03189 0059 +109 +059 108010 010 015 000 00
225100 2332N 08333W 6960 03189 0058 +111 +059 101010 010 013 000 00
225130 2330N 08334W 6958 03190 0057 +111 +058 108009 010 015 000 00
225200 2329N 08336W 6958 03190 0057 +110 +056 114010 011 016 000 00

[Extratropical94]

[johngaltfla]

a center relocation to the south means a possible track toward Tampa

I would prefer not and vote for dissipation

I have had enough rain, thank you very much.

[Airboy]

The SE winds the recon finds indicates center relocated south.

[NDG]

18z HWRF has TD 9' finally getting stacked starting tomorrow evening.

[psyclone]

a center relocation to the south means a possible track toward Tampa

Well aren't you just full of good news. take it south of me so I'm on the left side por favor.

[NDG]

BTW, I think the HWRF sees the relocation further south because it has the 18z LLC track W to WSW at times tonight, not gain any latitude until at least tomorrow afternoon.

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KWBC 292302
NOAA3 0709A CYCLONE HDOB 37 20160829
225230 2328N 08338W 6958 03190 0058 +110 +055 117011 012 017 000 00
225300 2326N 08340W 6961 03187 0060 +108 +057 124013 013 018 000 00
225330 2325N 08341W 6961 03186 0056 +110 +055 122012 012 018 000 00
225400 2323N 08343W 6957 03189 0058 +108 +058 136012 013 019 000 00
225430 2322N 08345W 6958 03189 0059 +107 +063 144012 012 022 000 00
225500 2321N 08347W 6959 03188 0057 +109 +064 144012 012 022 000 00
225530 2319N 08348W 6960 03187 0058 +107 +070 147011 012 022 000 00
225600 2318N 08350W 6960 03187 0057 +108 +067 152010 010 020 000 00
225630 2316N 08352W 6959 03188 0054 +111 +064 164009 010 019 000 00
225700 2315N 08354W 6959 03188 0055 +110 +067 173009 009 020 000 00
225730 2314N 08355W 6960 03187 0053 +112 +068 168007 008 020 000 00
225800 2312N 08357W 6960 03187 0048 +116 +061 173006 006 021 000 00
225830 2311N 08359W 6958 03188 0052 +112 +066 165009 010 021 000 00
225900 2310N 08400W 6959 03188 0058 +108 +062 187009 009 021 000 00
225930 2308N 08402W 6958 03187 0054 +110 +061 190009 009 021 000 00
230000 2307N 08404W 6959 03186 0056 +109 +063 187008 008 021 001 00
230030 2305N 08405W 6959 03186 0063 +102 +066 177006 007 022 000 00
230100 2304N 08407W 6961 03185 0062 +104 +065 163008 009 023 000 00
230130 2303N 08409W 6961 03185 0061 +105 +066 151010 010 022 000 00
230200 2301N 08410W 6960 03186 0055 +109 +068 150010 011 025 000 00

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Center relocating south

[supercane]

Microwave from 1.5 hr ago:

[HurriGuy]

I think it is getting fairly obvious the center has either relocated or dissipated.

I'm going with the first option.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

BTW, I think the HWRF sees the relocation further south because it has the 18z LLC track W to WSW at times tonight, not gain any latitude until at least tomorrow afternoon.

But the HWRF initialized way west and still north of where it looks like this new center might be. Could change the final solution.

[JaxGator]

So far HARF has a 971mb cane about to make landfall NW of Cedar Key. 968mb at landfall.

[NDG]

BTW, I think the HWRF sees the relocation further south because it has the 18z LLC track W to WSW at times tonight, not gain any latitude until at least tomorrow afternoon.

But the HWRF initialized way west and still north of where it looks like this new center might be. Could change the final solution.

It was initialized based on the location of the LLC at that time, at 18z, confirmed by the recon, which was much better than at the current state of it, before shooting off to the west.

[JaxGator]

WJXT Jax Channel 4's John Gaughan noticed how the northern quad of the storm is starting to fan out (and looking at the anti-cyclonic flow, I agree).

[gatorcane]

If the new further south center is the new center, one would think the track gets adjusted to the right (east).

[Blinhart]

If the new further south center is the new center, one would think the track gets adjusted to the right (east).

Actually I have to disagree here, I think with a center further South, the track would have to be Adjusted a whole lot more West possibly Alabama

[TimeZone]

Did it dissipate?