ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ronyan]

winds may go up to 150 at 2am.. recon showing plenty of evidence.

The eye looks ill defined for such a strong storm but I believe T# is 6.9/7.2/7.2 now.

[eastcoastFL]

It looks like they are forecasting some slowing for this storm. My local forecast a few hours ago had TS cond starting thursday morning. Now they start thursday night and following with Hurricane conditions thru Saturday.





Wednesday Night
A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 81. East northeast wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Thursday
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 86. Windy, with a northeast wind 15 to 25 mph increasing to 30 to 40 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.


Thursday Night
Tropical storm conditions possible. A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 78.


Friday
Hurricane conditions possible. A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 87.


Friday Night
Hurricane conditions possible. A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 74.

Saturday
Hurricane conditions possible. Mostly sunny, with a high near 87.

That's kind of funny.......

only in Florida!

[northjaxpro]

Remember the multiple ALL CLEAR calls for FL three and four days ago?

How ridiculous was that from some people. I was among the ones constantly reminding everyone about too many uncertainties in the forecasts. Now look at what is happening now.

[Sanibel]

Looks like a dangerous "buzzsaw" Dvorak to me.


Les Cayes instrument failure in 105mph gust and the core edge still hasn't reached it.

[feederband]

So Glad no longer in the Grocery business... It was fun but many hours when theses things came to town...

[Aric Dunn]

Remember the multiple ALL CLEAR calls for FL three and four days ago?

How ridiculous was that from some people. I was among the ones constantly reminding everyone about too many uncertainties in the forecasts. Now look at what is happening now.

not from me lol

[TJRE]

Cat 4 and that track
As a Yankee who went thru the tail end of Sandy ...please be diligent in your preps!!!
... big thanks to everyone on the board for all the great info

[eastcoastFL]

Does anyone expect watches to go up later this morning?

Our local forecasts are already calling for possible hurricane conditions so thats about as good as a hurricane watch to me since that is where i get my weather info.

Gov Scott issued a state of emergency for every Florida county already. It looks like people are really starting to take this serious.


And also there was this in the 11pm Disco:


2. Direct hurricane impacts are possible in Florida later this
week. Tropical storm and/or hurricane watches are likely tomorrow
morning for portions of the Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys.

[AdamFirst]

Does anyone expect watches to go up later this morning?

Yes - 11 AM at the latest.

[ronyan]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... short.html

It looks like the outline of the Tiburon Peninsula is casting a shadow onto the CDO of Matthew in the last frame of Dvorak.

[WeatherEmperor]

Question...does the NHC issue new watches/warnings on intermediate advisories or only on the full advisory packages??


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[SunnyThoughts]

someone was asking about t#'s earlier

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 04 OCT 2016 Time : 041500 UTC
Lat : 17:00:51 N Lon : 74:38:09 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.9 / 923.9mb/137.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.9 7.0 7.0

[Blinhart]

I don't know if they will go with 155 MPH at the intermediary advisory, but I wouldn't be surprised if they did. This storm is just defying all logic, so let the long hours of watching this system begin. I know a lot of people in Florida won't be getting much sleep in the next 3-5 days.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, I definitely expect Hurricane Watches to be posted tomorrow along the Florida coast, possibly even at 5 a.m. advisory.

[chaser1]

Does anyone expect watches to go up later this morning?

Our local forecasts are already calling for possible hurricane conditions so thats about as good as a hurricane watch to me since that is where i get my weather info.

Gov Scott issued a state of emergency for every Florida county already. It looks like people are really starting to take this serious.

I'm thinking Tropical Storm Watches Watches will go in effect for Upper Florida Keys, and Hurricane Watches for Miami-Dade north to Martin or St. Lucie counties by 9:00a.m . Watches for Counties further north will be issued later tomm. night and into Wed. a.m.

[AutoPenalti]

30 minutes before EURO time, while the trend is west, something tells me that it will shift east.

[eastcoastFL]

I don't know if they will go with 155 MPH at the intermediary advisory, but I wouldn't be surprised if they did. This storm is just defying all logic, so let the long hours of watching this system begin. I know a lot of people in Florida won't be getting much sleep in the next 3-5 days.

Im one of them that is missing sleep already. I need to wake up in less than 5 hours but i keep telling my wife i just want to see one more advisory. First it was 11pm and now im debating on the 2am or bed..

[Blinhart]

Question...does the NHC issue new watches/warnings on intermediate advisories or only on the full advisory packages??


Sent from my iPhone 6 using Tapatalk

If need be they can issue Special Advisories, but I don't think they are warranted at this time, Think they will wait until the morning package.

[northjaxpro]

Does anyone expect watches to go up later this morning?

Our local forecasts are already calling for possible hurricane conditions so thats about as good as a hurricane watch to me since that is where i get my weather info.

Gov Scott issued a state of emergency for every Florida county already. It looks like people are really starting to take this serious.

I'm thinking Tropical Storm Watches Watches will go in effect for Upper Florida Keys, and Hurricane Watches for Miami-Dade north to Martin or St. Lucie counties by 9:00a.m . Watches for Counties further north will be issued later tomm. night and into Wed. a.m.

You are probably right in the order in which how NHC woll issue those watches chaser1.

[chaser1]

I'll say this much about the intensity forecast....unless Matthew veers enough to the east or west thus severely raking the storm through the mountains, than I fully expect intensity to rapidly spin back to at least a Cat 4 'Cane again