ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Alyono]

MLC is where all the convection is, can't help but think a new surface low forms down there with the pressure at this center now risen.

This has been decapitated by mid level shear. The low level wind field is too well defined for a new center to form

[Alyono]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=midshr&zoom=&time=

BIG TIME mid level shear

Might have gotten north of the anti-cyclone again. What a system.

Not north. It's under the upper high. This is 500mb shear that took care of it

[Aric Dunn]

tail radar again showing a more defined vort to the south. both vorts connected by the classic boundary between them.. once they pass through it will be clear hopefully.

[Alyono]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=midshr&zoom=&time=

BIG TIME mid level shear

12 knots? That cannot be the problem

12 kts of mid level shear will decapitate a TC very quickly. It will never become stacked above 700mb with that kind of shear

[tropicwatch]

They put out a vortex on the wind shift spot.

[Hammy]

I think the signs are all being misread--there is no new center forming, this system is simply a mess that is unlikely to organize anytime soon, if ever. Recon shows that this is actually weaker than earlier if anything.

[HurriGuy]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=midshr&zoom=&time=

BIG TIME mid level shear

12 knots? That cannot be the problem

12 kts of mid level shear will decapitate a TC very quickly. It will never become stacked above 700mb with that kind of shear

Could this dissipate or will it be a terribly organized from here on out?

[whatacane]

IS this a twin scenario ? taking a while to give birth , hermie and hermine? earlier I thought the center was at 22 and 84

[Alyono]

12 knots? That cannot be the problem

12 kts of mid level shear will decapitate a TC very quickly. It will never become stacked above 700mb with that kind of shear

Could this dissipate or will it be a terribly organized from here on out?

I really do not know. This storm has me confused.

[tropicwatch]

As much as I would like to see the end of this evenings program. I have to go to bed, catch the reruns in the morning

[Aric Dunn]

12 kts of mid level shear will decapitate a TC very quickly. It will never become stacked above 700mb with that kind of shear

Could this dissipate or will it be a terribly organized from here on out?

I really do not know. This storm has me confused.

clearly watching the progression of the northern "circ" tracked earlier has dropped south of west since recon last time .. that recon mission showed 3 separate vorts ... microwave images showed 3 separate vorts.. the vorts within the convection are more than capable of becoming dominate.

[Aric Dunn]

just look at the VDM and the wind field associated with it ... it weak and shows signs of multiple vorts nearby.

[HurriGuy]

It is funny to think we have almost 250 pages in this forum and we still are not even close to a tropical storm.

Every morning the convection has been at it's highest peak. We will see what happens in 8 hours

[waterworld]

This storm will get to 22.7N - 87.3W before any movement north.

[Aric Dunn]

It is funny to think we have almost 250 pages in this forum and we still are not even close to a tropical storm.

Every morning the convection has been at it's highest peak. We will see what happens in 8 hours

its definitely been a challenge. even with the possibility of multiple vorts the convection could easily have TS winds .

[HurriGuy]

This storm will get to 22.7N - 87.3W before any movement north.

I have been at this point for awhile and I am still at it, but I don't think anyone really knows what is going to happen tomorrow

[Aric Dunn]

pressure has litterally been 1007 mb since they descended.. no sign in intensification.. unless the other vorts from earlier have some more organization..

[waterworld]

Looks like it is making that change now? With all the posts thus far and graphics studied,it my be easier for me to find bigfoot in NW washington

[Aric Dunn]

looking like less of secondary vort.. it got me... we shall see..

[Aric Dunn]

well.. convection is increasing.. but still not even close to a TS..maybe next mission..