ATL: EARL - Remnants - Discussion

[TheStormExpert]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Thunderstorm activity associated with a strong tropical wave located over the central Caribbean Sea about 350 miles east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, continues to show signs of organization. Earlier satellite wind data indicate that the system is producing winds of 40 to 45 mph, and recent satellite and ship observations suggest that a circulation is gradually becoming better defined. If this development trend continues, a tropical storm is likely to form later today or tonight as the system moves westward over the west-central Caribbean sea at 20 to
25 mph. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds, perhaps to tropical storm force, are likely along the southern coast of the Dominican Republic and Haiti today. Tropical storm conditions are likely to occur over Jamaica by this afternoon or evening, and could reach the Cayman Islands overnight. Interests
in these areas and elsewhere in the western Caribbean Sea should continue to monitor the progress of this disturbance. For additional information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[weathaguyry]

NHC mentioned TS winds, so if it does get upgraded at 11:00AM it would go straight to TS Earl

[RL3AO]

I tend to agree with him. I'm not trying to knock the NHC they are definitely the experts but I can't help but think if this was bearing down on the gulf or east coast it would have a name right now.

any proof of a CLOSED LLC?

I understand what you are saying and understand you are the professional met. But you will not convince me that if this storm in its current state was sitting in the gulf threatening land that they would not name it. Not trying to be rude just stating my opinion.

A system in the Gulf would have had recon and we would know.

[Alyono]

I tend to agree with him. I'm not trying to knock the NHC they are definitely the experts but I can't help but think if this was bearing down on the gulf or east coast it would have a name right now.

any proof of a CLOSED LLC?

I understand what you are saying and understand you are the professional met. But you will not convince me that if this storm in its current state was sitting in the gulf threatening land that they would not name it. Not trying to be rude just stating my opinion.

They would not. Last year with Bill, recon found a closed LLC, but it was considered too elliptical and broad for NHC to classify according to the administration there. It led to corporations and police departments calling it TS Bill on their own, disregarding NHC

[znel52]

any proof of a CLOSED LLC?

I understand what you are saying and understand you are the professional met. But you will not convince me that if this storm in its current state was sitting in the gulf threatening land that they would not name it. Not trying to be rude just stating my opinion.

A system in the Gulf would have had recon and we would know.

I realize that it was a hypothetical situation to show it isn't always consistent across the board. Colin never should have been named and wouldn't have been if it wasn't threatening Florida. Anyways I am done arguing about it. Prayers going out to anyone in this storms path.

[Dean4Storms]

any proof of a CLOSED LLC?

I understand what you are saying and understand you are the professional met. But you will not convince me that if this storm in its current state was sitting in the gulf threatening land that they would not name it. Not trying to be rude just stating my opinion.

They would not. Last year with Bill, recon found a closed LLC, but it was considered too elliptical and broad for NHC to classify according to the administration there. It led to corporations and police departments calling it TS Bill on their own, disregarding NHC

All very true but on the same token NHC going only by obs and satellite how many times has Recon flown out to a system that looked even less organized as this and surprise, no TD but straight to finding a TS?

I know there is no proof out there of an LLC yet, but I think if it is not already with one it will in the matter of a few hours.

[Medtronic15]

NHC: "Tropical
storm conditions are likely to occur over Jamaica by this afternoon
or evening…

[BobHarlem]

NHC: "Tropical
storm conditions are likely to occur over Jamaica by this afternoon
or evening…

If Jamaica winds up having damage/flooding without proper warning, arguments will get nasty fast about classification. Dominica last year with Erika was a good example of that (unexpectedly bad damage from "just" a TS)

[stormwise]

JT'WC
97L INVEST 160801 0600 15.7N 69.2W ATL 40 1007

[tolakram]

Live loop:

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=14&lon=-73&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=725&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=6&mapcolor=gray

zoomed out
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=14&lon=-73&info=vis&zoom=2&width=1000&height=725&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=6&mapcolor=gray

[tolakram]

You can see that from a stationary point of view I don't think it has an LLC yet. Hard to tell without being able to look under the heaviest convection.

[srainhoutx]

I suspect there is a closed elongate low level circulation S of Haiti. While the possible cyclone is not completely vertically stacked, it's well on its way.

[stormwise]

Yeah without a clear ascat its had to tell, I also think its ingesting some dry air.

[ninel conde]

NHC: "Tropical
storm conditions are likely to occur over Jamaica by this afternoon
or evening…

That could be from gusty squalls. Alonyo could be right that it might not yet have a closed circ.

[znel52]

Looks like it will soon be hitting the outer fringes of that large pool of waters with very high TCHP in the Caribbean. Curious to see if other conditions will be in place for strengthening.

[TexasF6]

I think the center will come close to Haiti and shoot the gap between Haiti and Jamacia. A stronger storm will gain latitude and where he is now was supposed to be a little hostile? Nope. This has my attention.









The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[MGC]

Need to get recon down there asap. Lives are at risk in Jamaica. 97L could become a TC any time now by the looks of its sat pictures.....MGC

[Alyono]

looks sheared a bit this morning. I suspect the wave axis is now on the extreme western edge of the convection

[terstorm1012]

looks like recon is scheduled for 18z tomorrow? They must not think there's a closed center.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track:

Location: 15.8°N 71.7°W
Maximum Winds: 40 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1009 mb
Radius of Circulation: 140 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 50 NM