ATL: HERMINE - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

Is it just me or is the 12z GFS late...I'm not getting any output from Tropicaltidbits.

[SFLcane]

It's about the same 96hrs TD into Caribbean

[NDG]

So far 12z GFS is very close to the 0z run than to the 06z run, but nothing as strong as yesterday's 12z run through the Leeward Islands.

[SFLcane]

Open wave S of Puerto Rico

[TheStormExpert]

Crosses Puerto Rico as an open wave in 120hrs.

[Alyono]

Must be unfaborable low level winds as the upper levels look fine on the mu

[tarheelprogrammer]

Must be unfaborable low level winds as the upper levels look fine on the mu

Something does not seem right here to me. Even though I believe it will not be a major hurricane I could no doubt see a hurricane above PR. Models showing good UL and dry air is there but not a major problem. Hmmm. I could be wrong but it seems that way.

[tolakram]

Slightly better vorticity than the last 2 runs, but still very weak. Dry stable air?

[Alyono]

May be time to write this dead wave off

[Blown Away]

It's inevitable that a modeled system gets tangled up in Hispaniola for at least a few runs... Happens like every single time...

[Alyono]

My suspicion is very little low level convergence

[SFLcane]

May be time to write this dead wave off

Hmm leaning that way plenty of land interaction. It's time to right off this entire basin lol.

[TheStormExpert]

Slightly better vorticity than the last 2 runs, but still very weak. Dry stable air?

Nope, seems the airmass looks moist enough.

[Blown Away]

Starts to build after clearing the islands.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Slightly better vorticity than the last 2 runs, but still very weak. Dry stable air?

Nope, seems the airmass looks moist enough.

Shear is not bad either.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_26.png

[tolakram]

Watch the 12Z Euro continue to trend stronger.

[centuryv58]

May be time to write this dead wave off

Hmm leaning that way plenty of land interaction. It's time to right off this entire basin lol.

#534 Postby Blown Away » Sat Aug 20, 2016 11:16 am

Starts to build after clearing the islands.

I'm glad we're all clear on this

[TheStormExpert]

Watch the 12Z Euro continue to trend stronger.

Watch it show a Cat.4 or Cat.5 like earlier GFS runs.

[Alyono]

Shear not best north of carib. The anti cyclone lags behind

[tolakram]