ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blown Away]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
800 AM EDT TUE OCT 04 2016

...EYE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW MADE LANDFALL NEAR
LES ANGLAIS IN WESTERN HAITI AT 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 74.2W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM E OF TIBURON HAITI
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM S OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB...27.58 INCHES

Was a NNE movement and does look due N now...

[USTropics]

 https://twitter.com/DrShepherd2013/status/783277888451833858




 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/783237367536705536




 https://twitter.com/JWatson_Wx/status/783277433118138368

[Soonercane]

Peak SFMR of 118 knots on the western quadrant of the eyewall, still not where the most intense winds are either.

Good news, look like it weakened a little before impacting haiti then. Unfortunately winds are not the main concern there.

[feederband]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php ... R&loop=yes

[AdamFirst]

The core will be back over water in no time. Seems like minimal disruption of this storm for sure.

[NDG]

Peak SFMR of 118 knots on the western quadrant of the eyewall, still not where the most intense winds are either.

Good news, look like it weakened a little before impacting haiti then. Unfortunately winds are not the main concern there.

Recon did not get a chance to sample the NE quadrant of the storm where the strongest winds have been before making landfall.

[Soonercane]

The core will be back over water in no time. Seems like minimal disruption of this storm for sure.

I don't know... based on recon it appears the storm was likely weakening before landfall and the terrain is pretty rugged in that part of Haiti, so it is possible the core could be disrupted considerably, I would not be surprised to see this thing as a Cat.2 or so when it gets to the Bahamas.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The core will be back over water in no time. Seems like minimal disruption of this storm for sure.

I don't know... based on recon it appears the storm was likely weakening before landfall and the terrain is pretty rugged in that part of Haiti, so it is possible the core could be disrupted considerably, I would not be surprised to see this thing as a Cat.2 or so when it gets to the Bahamas.

That's not what the recon is showing. Only the S-W quadrant of the storm was sampled. If I'm not mistaken, Matthew's most intense winds were on the N-NE. quadrant per the previous recons. Additionally, a pressure of 940mb was observed in the southern eyewall (which indicates ~937mb).

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/783272002685575169

[USTropics]

The core will be back over water in no time. Seems like minimal disruption of this storm for sure.

I don't know... based on recon it appears the storm was likely weakening before landfall and the terrain is pretty rugged in that part of Haiti, so it is possible the core could be disrupted considerably, I would not be surprised to see this thing as a Cat.2 or so when it gets to the Bahamas.

Image of terrain in Haiti:

[bob rulz]

The core will be back over water in no time. Seems like minimal disruption of this storm for sure.

I don't know... based on recon it appears the storm was likely weakening before landfall and the terrain is pretty rugged in that part of Haiti, so it is possible the core could be disrupted considerably, I would not be surprised to see this thing as a Cat.2 or so when it gets to the Bahamas.

No offense, but this is borderline dangerous -removed-. There is absolutely no reason to suspect that it will weaken that much, and could give the wrong idea about this storm to somebody who's coming here for information and is still learning about tropical weather...

[windnrain]

MIMIC:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... t24hrs.gif

[MaineWeatherNut]

The core will be back over water in no time. Seems like minimal disruption of this storm for sure.

I don't know... based on recon it appears the storm was likely weakening before landfall and the terrain is pretty rugged in that part of Haiti, so it is possible the core could be disrupted considerably, I would not be surprised to see this thing as a Cat.2 or so when it gets to the Bahamas.

Like was already mentioned that was the Northwest quad that recon sampled... The NorthEast Quad wasn't able to be sampled before landfall and it's the northeast quad that is the strongest so I doubt it was weakening.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

MIMIC:

Doesn't look like the storm was weakening at all before landfall per that and definitely doesn't indicate that per the recon.

[ThetaE]

The core will be back over water in no time. Seems like minimal disruption of this storm for sure.

I don't know... based on recon it appears the storm was likely weakening before landfall and the terrain is pretty rugged in that part of Haiti, so it is possible the core could be disrupted considerably, I would not be surprised to see this thing as a Cat.2 or so when it gets to the Bahamas.

I don't think Matthew will get that weak. He's moving at a decent enough clip, and he's currently about as inland as he'll get based on satellite. Certainly, he'll weaken, but I just don't think he'll be over land enough to weaken that dramatically. Either way, the waters waiting for him on the other side of (and in) the Windward Passage should be enough for him to restrengthen again.

[ronyan]

The center appears to be jogging NW, could be out of mountainous terrain quite soon.

[Soonercane]

The core will be back over water in no time. Seems like minimal disruption of this storm for sure.

I don't know... based on recon it appears the storm was likely weakening before landfall and the terrain is pretty rugged in that part of Haiti, so it is possible the core could be disrupted considerably, I would not be surprised to see this thing as a Cat.2 or so when it gets to the Bahamas.

I don't think Matthew will get that weak. He's moving at a decent enough clip, and he's currently about as inland as he'll get based on satellite. Certainly, he'll weaken, but I just don't think he'll be over land enough to weaken that dramatically. Either way, the waters waiting for him on the other side of (and in) the Windward Passage should be enough for him to restrengthen again.

I agree restrengthening is possible, I think Matthew will be a major whenever it makes its closest approach to the east coast

[hurricaneCW]

Whatever disruption to Matthew occurs will not be significant enough that it can't restrengthen over the Bahamas. There's little solace to be had about any weakening before landfall as it makes virtually no difference for impacts, but I don't even think he weakened before landfall.

[abajan]

... one guy did say to me "its not coming here my friend", old timer maybe he knows something ...

Reminds me of Mr Truman.

[NDG]