ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

Looking at vis loop half of the LLC circulation is now exposed.

[Slughitter3]

The Weather Channel just passed that the Global Hawk (UAS) flying the system has been recording TS winds for the last hour or so. Anyone know where to find that data to confirm it or not? Thanks!

Stu Ostro sent out this tweet

 https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/770646742895357952

I sadly can't see tweets on my work computer, any chance you could tell me what it says?? Thank you!!

[TropicalSailor]

Complete amateur here but does anyone see a NE shift between 15:55 and 16:00 here?

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... olor=black

[stormreader]

One factor: The disorganized nature of this system. Really wondering (as I said last night) if that might play a role in making it more difficult for the storm to be picked up by the approaching trough. In other words making this mess of a depression less susceptible to upper atmospheric influences (like the trough).

[Stormcenter]

Which circulation are you looking at?

Looking at vis loop half of the LLC circulation is now exposed.

[Stormcenter]

I see a disorganized mess right now. The shear is again taking it's toll on TD#9.

Complete amateur here but does anyone see a NE shift between 15:55 and 16:00 here?

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... olor=black

[Dave C]

Outflow boundries shooting out north and ne of system.

[ronjon]

The Weather Channel just passed that the Global Hawk (UAS) flying the system has been recording TS winds for the last hour or so. Anyone know where to find that data to confirm it or not? Thanks!

Stu Ostro sent out this tweet

 https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/770646742895357952

I sadly can't see tweets on my work computer, any chance you could tell me what it says?? Thank you!!

Dropsone data reports average surface winds of 45 mph and central pressure of 1005 mb.

[GCANE]

First time I have seen a CAPE of 4000 near this.
Its just west of the convection at about 23.2N 88.5W.
I am not sure what is going on with the convection along 84W.

[Sanibel]

Expanded surface feature. Center under convection. Slightly improved Dvorak.

[GCANE]

Outflow boundries shooting out north and ne of system.

I thought that may happen.
Too much convection too quickly with not enough vorticity to keep feeding in ocean heat.

[psyclone]

Let's just assume the system never gets put together and never even becomes a named storm (bet with persistence)...it remains a very heavy rain and flood threat. It has consistently had heavy rain on its east and south so if it moves near you or you're off to its east and south...there is probably some risk of flooding for your area. I know my area is already pretty wet so heavy rain will just automatically translate into runoff. Sandbags are still available in the bay area and for good reason. Heavy rain never gets the attention of wind or surge but the threat is very significant...as we just saw in Louisiana.

[Slughitter3]

Stu Ostro sent out this tweet

 https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/770646742895357952

I sadly can't see tweets on my work computer, any chance you could tell me what it says?? Thank you!!

Dropsone data reports average surface winds of 45 mph and central pressure of 1005 mb.

Thank you, forgive me for being new, but do they utilize the dropsone data to upgrade or will they require the Recon flight before considering an upgrade?

[whatacane]

First time I have seen a CAPE of 4000 near this.
Its just west of the convection at about 23.2N 88.5W.
I am not sure what is going on with the convection along 84W.

what is that?

[GCANE]

Didn't expect to see this yet, but looks like an outflow channel is developing.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... g8wvir.GIF

[bqknight]

Didn't expect to see this yet, but looks like an outflow channel is developing.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... g8wvir.GIF

Was just about to post that, definitely looks like one forming in the SW.

[JtSmarts]

Um, is is just me of the did the GFS almost turn TD 9 back into the NE coast at hours 120-138?

[GCANE]

Pretty big drop in shear in the last 6 hours

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... wg8sht.GIF

[tropicwatch]

Don't think the dry air in the BOC will be much of a factor. Looks to be moistening up. Also not seeing what will push TD 9 eastward.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/movies/g8wvbbm/g8wvbbm_loop.html

[tarheelprogrammer]

Don't think the dry air in the BOC will be much of a factor. Looks to be moistening up. Also not seeing what will push TD 9 eastward.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/movies/g8wvbbm/g8wvbbm_loop.html

Yeah where is the system to take this OTS?