ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[artist]

Gov Scott press conference shortly as well as Miami mayor

[Alyono]

on satellite imagery, this looks to have weakened substantially while crossing the Tiburon Peninsula. Would not be surprised if this is down to a cat 3. Now, over the Gulf of Gonave, it should quickly regain any lost intensity

[Hurricaneman]

VMax on the MIMIC increased to 125kts just before landfall... Was down a single knot to 124 as it was headed back out over water... Not much weakening at all.

A rare occurrence has happened there, this could bomb out in the Bahamas which the NHC doesn't expect

[AdamFirst]

Miami-Dade County Mayor Carlos Giminez anticipates a Tropical Storm Watch for Dade County at 11 AM

[GCANE]

Link: https://youtu.be/eOuVlg3mNek

[artist]

Gov Scott press conference shortly as well as Miami mayor

[ricka47]

Looking at the water vapor flow along with the upper level wind reports, what I see is a general west east run across the US. There is a significant blast of dry air coming into NW florida at the moment from the wnw.

Ahead of the dry air rush there seems to be a sw/ne flow which to me would indicate a move away from the florida pen. over the next day or so. In fact before land fall in SW Haiti, the storm was moving NNE.

With increased southern winds, forward motion should increase and IMO the overall motion influenced by the high shear should take the system more NNW than NW. Maybe this is a wishocast for me, but I don't see this system west of 79-80W before it moves to the NNE.

Personal note for us, the 80w is important because that is the number where we vacate inland!

Important: these are the observations of an extreme amateur with little formal training so I'd be listening to the NHC and especially to state emergency officials long before I relied on my 71yo rants.

We're also closely watching that 80W here!

[GCANE]

Link: https://youtu.be/WTrKJQGeFwI

[DelrayMorris]

I see some comments that seems to suggest Florida might be in the clear here. Folks the ECMWF HP cluster has 100% of member making landfall in Florida as a CAT 2 or 3 (see models page) with tracks into SE Florida (Palm Beach County). The UKMET is barely offshore West Palm Beach. Those are two of the best models in the world showing these tracks. Also, don't focus on the center so much as the fact that big impacts will be felt far away from the center as the windfield could expand as it moves out of the Caribbean.

In the models thread, someone posted that they are calling it as "all clear" for Florida.

I think that is incredibly irresponsible at this point. It may turn out, in the next couple of days, that we do end up getting very little impact, but it is far TOO SOON to say that anyone on the SE CONUS is in the all clear. Everyone from South Florida to NC should be monitoring this storm and taking steps to prepare if it looks like you will be impacted.

PERIOD

[La Sirena]

Gov Scott press conference shortly as well as Miami mayor

Do you have a time for those? Thx!

[AutoPenalti]

Gov Scott press conference shortly as well as Miami mayor

Do you have a time for those? Thx!

Now

[jdjaguar]

Looking at the water vapor flow along with the upper level wind reports, what I see is a general west east run across the US. There is a significant blast of dry air coming into NW florida at the moment from the wnw.

Ahead of the dry air rush there seems to be a sw/ne flow which to me would indicate a move away from the florida pen. over the next day or so. In fact before land fall in SW Haiti, the storm was moving NNE.

With increased southern winds, forward motion should increase and IMO the overall motion influenced by the high shear should take the system more NNW than NW. Maybe this is a wishocast for me, but I don't see this system west of 79-80W before it moves to the NNE.

Personal note for us, the 80w is important because that is the number where we vacate inland!

Important: these are the observations of an extreme amateur with little formal training so I'd be listening to the NHC and especially to state emergency officials long before I relied on my 71yo rants.

We're also closely watching that 80W here!

likewise

Vero Beach 27.638 N 80.397 W

Jax Beach 30.284 N 81.398 W

put posted notes on the computer

[abajan]

Some pictures, videos, and tweets from those on the ground in Haiti:

https://twitter.com/KarlJeanJeune/statu ... 8523493377
http://i.imgur.com/P60RoVM.jpg

https://twitter.com/aletweetsnews/statu ... 5654420481
https://twitter.com/YojaLeon/status/783273037231710208
https://twitter.com/jgabrielfortune/sta ... 2587954176

https://twitter.com/Jacquiecharles/stat ... 0139954176

The second video was quite heart wrenching. Even though I don't know French, the shock and distress at their predicament was obvious. Due to some technical issue with my browser, the first video didn't load.

[fci]

I see some comments that seems to suggest Florida might be in the clear here. Folks the ECMWF HP cluster has 100% of member making landfall in Florida as a CAT 2 or 3 (see models page) with tracks into SE Florida (Palm Beach County). The UKMET is barely offshore West Palm Beach. Those are two of the best models in the world showing these tracks. Also, don't focus on the center so much as the fact that big impacts will be felt far away from the center as the windfield could expand as it moves out of the Caribbean.

One of the variables that may work in our favor down here is that the threat is predicated on a turn. Models indicate that the turn will occur so I am not discounting that. However; it's not like this is making a straight beeline towards us.
We have all seen where turns get delayed.
We have sat at our screens watching the wobbles, jerks, loops...... waiting on the "turn" to occur.
It seems in this case where we are talking about 100 miles from the coast versus 50 miles versus actual landfall; the timing of the "anticipated turn" is everything.
Not like it is a turn that is occurring thousands of miles away where it is inconsequential.
Maybe we will be fortunate like Jamaica which just dodged a big bullet.
So, there is room for hope that the turn will occur late and all we get is a little bit of rain and some gusty winds.
Yeah, perhaps I am "-removed-" here and by all means, be ready for a possible landfalling hurricane here; but with the big clunky, sharp aluminum shutters that I have to put on my windows; I am waiting until a Hurricane Warning before I embark on that task. Everything else, patio furniture brought in, supplies; all will be ready.
Let's hope that we are all spared a direct hit or any contact with the eye wall.

[GCANE]

Interesting the Blob poofed at the same time the eye crosses the Tiburon Peninsula.

Obviously, a close coupling between the two.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[artist]

Michael Watkins

@watkinstrack

11m

Both the HWRF and GFDL (bottom 2), which were once eastern outliers, are now on the west side of the guidance envelope for #Matthew pic.twitter.com/t5sJXvPlut

[Arsynic]

Gov Scott press conference shortly as well as Miami mayor

For all the "all clear" folks in Florida, this should tell you a lot. As was mentioned, the center line only tracks the eye of the storm but the effects of the storm can be felt miles upon miles east and west of the center. Only put your guard down when the storm is north of you.

There's no harm in hoping for the best while preparing for the worst. At the least you'll get to test out your storm preparedness process.

[dukeblue219]

on satellite imagery, this looks to have weakened substantially while crossing the Tiburon Peninsula. Would not be surprised if this is down to a cat 3. Now, over the Gulf of Gonave, it should quickly regain any lost intensity

Which satellite view are you looking at? I'm curious because the IR looked pretty stable to my untrained eye. That said, certainly SOME weakening is expected over Haiti of course.

[artist]

Gov Scott press conference shortly as well as Miami mayor

Do you have a time for those? Thx!

Miami mayor swid to prepare now, watches should be coming soon.
Gov Scott has not had his. TWC just stated his would be soon.

[CrazyC83]

When it comes to watches, here is how I would do it at 11 am:

Hurricane Watch - Card Sound Bridge to Fernandina Beach, including Lake Okeechobee

Tropical Storm Watch - South of Card Sound Bridge (i.e. Florida Keys), Florida Bay, west coast south of Yankeetown

(Will likely be extended farther north later)

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.