ATL: HERMINE - Models

[Blinhart]

So right now the models are showing an Andrew/Lilly path but all can change in the next week. A lot can change in the next week or 2 also depends on when it decides to start getting wrapped together and strengthening.

[SouthDadeFish]

Shear not best north of carib. The anti cyclone lags behind

There's a small upper-level low/PV streamer that moves in tandem with 99L off to its NW. This seems to help displace the upper-level anticyclone.

[Blown Away]

The 18z yesterday showed a Cat 1 slightly north of the 12z @180hr position... Maybe the slight S shift of the 00z, 06z, and 12z runs allowed more land interaction and we have a weaker system?

[tolakram]

Dead low in the heart of the season. Hmmm. And the next one coming in from the right.

[SFLcane]

Next please... I surrender euro but I get it this basin is just pure garbage as of late.

[BobHarlem]

GFS is back to the Keys/S. Fla landfall on 8/29.

[PTrackerLA]

Pretty astonishing we have a low in a seemingly favorable environment in the heart of the season IN THE BAHAMAS not doing squat. Just wow.

[WeatherEmperor]

Any other time a tropical low drifting in the NE Bahamas for nearly 24 hours would explode into a major hurricane with those hot gulf stream waters. But 99L? Nope. It drifts right off the SFla coast from 180-204 hrs and does absolutely nothing. Go figure....

[SFLcane]

GFS is back to the Keys/S. Fla landfall on 8/29.

With what??? A Miami afternoon thunderstorm? Next

[WeatherEmperor]

Pretty astonishing we have a low in a seemingly favorable environment in the heart of the season IN THE BAHAMAS not doing squat. Just wow.

You took the words out of my mouth. Absolutely stunned right now.....

[centuryv58]

Pretty astonishing we have a low in a seemingly favorable environment in the heart of the season IN THE BAHAMAS not doing squat. Just wow.

No it doesn't seem to make any sense. Very confusing signals from the models.

[Blown Away]

NHC has Fiona as remnant low in 48 hours and 12z GFS has at least a Cat 1 hurricane just offshore the SE CONUS... I give up...

IMO, the strengthening Fiona played a big role in squishing 99L in this run...

[SouthDadeFish]

Still seems odd to me that you could have a vort max in the Bahamas this time of year with a relatively moist atmosphere, moderate wind shear, and get minimal development. From what I'm seeing on the simulated IR page, it appears the shear might be a little too much for the small vortex. That being said, anytime you get a disturbance in the Bahamas in late August it's worth watching.

[BobHarlem]

Yep really weak, but man what is it doing to the wave northeast of it? It's exploding then.

[Alyono]

NHC has Fiona as remnant low in 48 hours and 12z GFS has at least a Cat 1 hurricane just offshore the SE CONUS... I give up...

that's not Fiona. It's the wave behind

It is always "wait for the next wave" with the models. A sign that the environment is really poor for genesis

[WeatherEmperor]

....meanwhile the Gfs blow up the system behind 99L into a hurricane going the direction of Bermuda. LoL what in the world???

[TheStormExpert]

Sorry but the GFS is officially a lost cause.

[SFLcane]

To add most intensity guidance has trended downward most reaching minimal hurricane which isn't looking to likely right now. Bla

[Blown Away]

NHC has Fiona as remnant low in 48 hours and 12z GFS has at least a Cat 1 hurricane just offshore the SE CONUS... I give up...

that's not Fiona. It's the wave behind

It is always "wait for the next wave" with the models. A sign that the environment is really poor for genesis

Who's more confused, me or the GFS?

Probably me...

[Steve]

Next please... I surrender euro but I get it this basin is just pure garbage as of late.

Why would you say the basin is garbage unless you are being sarcastic? Outside of A and F, all the other named storms were on this side of the world. Anything cranking that far to the east doesnt likely cross the ocean most of the time. If you want US action/threats in 2016, you have to be patient and wait for systems to get much farther west anyway. In my opinion, this looks exactly like the type of wave to fear this season.

8/29

That's the worst tropical day of the year.