ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

Unfortunately not. I haven't been following closely enough. Looks like the 00z models shown in the sfwmd hurricane plots show slightly less of a threat from maybe DC and north of there, but I wouldn't rule out some bad effects for Virginia if Matthew landfalls in SC or NC. So maybe the next low kicks it out Saturday-ish? I will say that Megi telegraphed the threat afterall. I thought the ridge would be stronger going back over a week ago, and I brought that up probably 10 times through last weekend.

Also and sorry about off topic. But if we get a western Caribbean system from energy piling up late next week, I'd guess the threat to Florida could be higher. We will see on that.

I've been following your teleconnections regarding Megi over the past week and have found your information regarding its correlation with the models and Matthew.

[hohnywx]

NHC predicts significant shear enough to rapidly weaken it to a cat 2 in 96 hours. How is it assumed to weaken that tremendously, when all of the models show a monster 4-5 near the coast of FL/SC, etc? And continuously?

H96 still has it as a Cat 3.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 16.9N 74.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 18.3N 74.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 20.0N 74.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 21.8N 75.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 23.4N 76.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 26.6N 78.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 30.0N 79.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 33.3N 77.6W 90 KT 105 MPH

[meriland23]

NHC predicts significant shear enough to rapidly weaken it to a cat 2 in 96 hours. How is it assumed to weaken that tremendously, when all of the models show a monster 4-5 near the coast of FL/SC, etc? And continuously?

Didn't see that in the discussion. Where did you see it?

Quoted by NHC as of 11 pm:

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft this evening measured
two peak SFMR winds of 125 kt in the northeastern eyewall, along
with a peak flight-level wind of 129 kt. The lowest pressure
measured by a dropsonde has been 934 mb, down 6 mb since the
previous flight. Based on these data, the initial intensity has been
increased to 125 kt.

Matthew continues to move a little east of due north, or 010/07 kt.
There is no change to the previous short-term track forecast
reasoning. Matthew is expected to move northward around the western
periphery of a strong deep-layer ridge for the next 24 hours,
followed by a north-northwestward motion at 36 and 48 hours. That
portion of the new forecast track is essentially the same as the
previous advisory, bringing Matthew over the southwestern peninsula
of Haiti tonight and near or over eastern Cuba on Tuesday. Beyond 48
hours, the GFS has again trended westward, and now lies closer to
the UKMET model track. This change might be related to the
mid-/upper-level trough currently located over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico, which is now forecast to split, with the northern portion
lifting out to the northeast and dissipating while the southern
portion cuts of into a low pressure system that drops southward over
the northwestern Caribbean Sea by 36-48 hours. The new track
forecast has again been shifted westward closer to Florida, and lies
near a blend of the 18Z GFS and 12Z ECMWF model solutions.

Only slight weakening is expected during the next couple of days due
to Matthew interacting with the land masses of western Haiti and
eastern Cuba. After the hurricane emerges over the Atlantic waters
between Cuba and the Bahamas, low vertical wind shear and warm SSTs
of near 30C should help Matthew to recover some before southwesterly
wind shear increases by 96-120 hours and induces a faster rate of
weakening. The new NHC intensity forecast is basically identical to
the previous advisory, and closely follows the consensus model IVCN.


INIT 04/0300Z 16.9N 74.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 18.3N 74.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 20.0N 74.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 21.8N 75.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 23.4N 76.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 26.6N 78.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 30.0N 79.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 33.3N 77.6W 90 KT 105 MPH

[WPBWeather]

NHC predicts significant shear enough to rapidly weaken it to a cat 2 in 96 hours. How is it assumed to weaken that tremendously, when all of the models show a monster 4-5 near the coast of FL/SC, etc? And continuously?

Didn't see that in the discussion. Where did you see it?

Quoted by NHC as of 11 pm:

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft this evening measured
two peak SFMR winds of 125 kt in the northeastern eyewall, along
with a peak flight-level wind of 129 kt. The lowest pressure
measured by a dropsonde has been 934 mb, down 6 mb since the
previous flight. Based on these data, the initial intensity has been
increased to 125 kt.

Matthew continues to move a little east of due north, or 010/07 kt.
There is no change to the previous short-term track forecast
reasoning. Matthew is expected to move northward around the western
periphery of a strong deep-layer ridge for the next 24 hours,
followed by a north-northwestward motion at 36 and 48 hours. That
portion of the new forecast track is essentially the same as the
previous advisory, bringing Matthew over the southwestern peninsula
of Haiti tonight and near or over eastern Cuba on Tuesday. Beyond 48
hours, the GFS has again trended westward, and now lies closer to
the UKMET model track. This change might be related to the
mid-/upper-level trough currently located over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico, which is now forecast to split, with the northern portion
lifting out to the northeast and dissipating while the southern
portion cuts of into a low pressure system that drops southward over
the northwestern Caribbean Sea by 36-48 hours. The new track
forecast has again been shifted westward closer to Florida, and lies
near a blend of the 18Z GFS and 12Z ECMWF model solutions.

Only slight weakening is expected during the next couple of days due
to Matthew interacting with the land masses of western Haiti and
eastern Cuba. After the hurricane emerges over the Atlantic waters
between Cuba and the Bahamas, low vertical wind shear and warm SSTs
of near 30C should help Matthew to recover some before southwesterly
wind shear increases by 96-120 hours and induces a faster rate of
weakening. The new NHC intensity forecast is basically identical to
the previous advisory, and closely follows the consensus model IVCN.


INIT 04/0300Z 16.9N 74.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 18.3N 74.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 20.0N 74.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 21.8N 75.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 23.4N 76.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 26.6N 78.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 30.0N 79.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 33.3N 77.6W 90 KT 105 MPH

Got it. Seems way too low. But we'll see.

[GTStorm]

I dont wanna start anything...but the 0z NAM is coming in just a bit east from before. Mabye a sign the others will shiftca bit east too?


I'll bite...woo-hoo!!

Sent from my iPhone 6 using Tapatalk

[1900hurricane]

NHC predicts significant shear enough to rapidly weaken it to a cat 2 in 96 hours. How is it assumed to weaken that tremendously, when all of the models show a monster 4-5 near the coast of FL/SC, etc? And continuously?

NHC still has 100 kt at tau 96, which is a category 3 intensity (albeit entry level). Guidance intensity should also be taken with a grain of salt in the subtropics. Both the GFS and ECMWF have an over-intensification bias outside the tropics, so that is something worth keeping note. The globals often underdo the effects of detrimental factors present outside the tropics, things like increasing shear from mid-lattiue flow and the drier air that typically occupies the subtropics.

That said, I have not delved too deep into the expected environment around this time period yet, so I can't say concretely what I expect will cause Matthew to weaken by that time frame. Just on a glance though, the NHC 03Z intensity forecast looks perfectly reasonable to me.

[CourierPR]

I recall that in 2005, Wilma was supposed to be a sheared and weakening storm. We know how that turned out.

[SunnyThoughts]

I guess we will see if the westward trend continues here in a few minutes when the GFS is initialized. Maybe the ridge isn't as strong and the system stays farther off the coastline. ( wishful thinking probably, but its worth a shot)

[adam0983]

Ridge looks very strong like a summertime ridge

[DESTRUCTION5]

I recall that in 2005, Wilma was supposed to be a sheared and weakening storm. We know how that turned out.

They not calling for that till 33 north..with an Oct trough Crossing the country I'm not the least bit surprised.

[SouthFLTropics]

00z GFS has been initialized.

[tolakram]

[AutoPenalti]

00z GFS has been initialized.

Ridge seems the same.

[SouthFLTropics]

Slightly stronger ridging on initialization. Forward speed looks a little faster.

[toad strangler]

[SouthFLTropics]

Less ridging at 6 hours.

[Steve]

Unfortunately not. I haven't been following closely enough. Looks like the 00z models shown in the sfwmd hurricane plots show slightly less of a threat from maybe DC and north of there, but I wouldn't rule out some bad effects for Virginia if Matthew landfalls in SC or NC. So maybe the next low kicks it out Saturday-ish? I will say that Megi telegraphed the threat afterall. I thought the ridge would be stronger going back over a week ago, and I brought that up probably 10 times through last weekend.

Also and sorry about off topic. But if we get a western Caribbean system from energy piling up late next week, I'd guess the threat to Florida could be higher. We will see on that.

I've been following your teleconnections regarding Megi over the past week and have found your information regarding its correlation with the models and Matthew.

They have a lot of those pattern matches around the globe. That's one of the better ones to watch during the peak of hurricane season. its not 100%, but if you are in July-October, it can matter. Seemed like the way Megi went in, this would almost be an Eastern Gulf or Keys hit. But relatively speaking and on a global scale, 100 miles east of Miami or 100 miles west of say Naples in a 8-10 day window is insignificant. I'm hoping those of you in SFL who either surf or want some action get it to a small degree and don't have to deal with worse. I'm eager to see what the European does. Bastardi's video either today or Saturday showed a couple of instances where they used it and how it led the way for big ticket storms.

[Frank2]

One thing weathers forecasters and their models are not known for, aside from intensity forecasting, is timing. The public advisory mentions Matthew being near the Florida coast by Thursday. yet here it's only Monday, which is good news because since it is starting to pick up speed, it will catch the current trough before the ridge builds in, so don't forget the cone - if the track is on the eastern edge, that means a BIG difference in conditions as the system passes by, and perhaps why a model is starting to trend east again...

[toad strangler]

00z GFS through 12 hours landfalling? on extreme W portions of Haiti

[tolakram]

4 run trend GIF