ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[drewschmaltz]

NINE is our little special child. Honey, your MLC. It's ok, keep trying.

[RL3AO]

First ever storm surge watch issued.

[ronjon]

Look carefully at the landfall point. it has shifted north to Taylor county. that means the southern extent of TS winds will be farther north. the decision to use Anclote as the southern break for the watch looks perfectly reasonable to me. The TS wind probability map spells this out nicely. I may be an unusual bird here but I'm delighted to NOT be included in the watch... although I could effortlessly ride my bike into the watch area. If this system does gather strength and landfall near its projected area, it is in a perfect position to deliver a substantial water rise to the big bend region which is the most surge prone area in the entire basin... a point often made by Steve Lyons on the weather channel when he was their tropical expert.

I don't buy it psyclone. This isn't likely to be a nice compact wind field that you'd find with a well organized system. Extend a hurricane watch to anclote but not cover tampa bay?? Storm surge effects will be almost as bad as further up the coast if the storm really gets going and pushes all the water into tampa bay. I would have extended the TS watch area down to sarasota. Makes more sense than the watch area on the weak offshore side of the storm in the panhandle.

[SeGaBob]

I read a hour ago they said they would make a 3rd pass through the center.

[Alyono]

the aircraft indicate that the winds have dropped to 25 kts

Look at how bad this has decoupled

It has been decoupled though for about a week now? This is the closest the MLC and LLC has been from everything I have been watching

they're about 130 miles apart. Plus, the MLC is generating the convection. This is Fay from 2008 all over again when it was east of the islands.

The MLC needs to die and the convection all needs to die with it. Then the LLC can start generating its own. There is storng inflow into the MLC, so I'm not sure it will die.

This looks like a well formed TC from about 10,000 feet above the surfacve

[Aric Dunn]

data is missing from the center pass. or they missed the center.

[chaser1]

Alright, seriously.... I must've blinked. Where the hell did the LLC go now? The MLC is plainly evident of course. LLC would appear to now be directly under the new bursting convection but..... is it? Anyone have the latest recon coord's?

[Emmett_Brown]

Perhaps the SW movement of the LLC is becusse it is now being pulled SW by the MLC. This might be the beginning of consolidation?

[StormHunter72]

wow trusting the experts and watching the sideshow.

[Hurricane Andrew]

LLC, where you go? Lol

[RL3AO]

Be sure to check out the storm surge inundation map. A lot of work has gone into creating an incredible project.

[Frank P]

Be sure to check out the storm surge inundation map. A lot of work has gone into creating an incredible project.

Yes it is totally awesome and will be a very useful tool in the future...

[Aric Dunn]

that is a whole lot of inflow into that complex just north of the MLC and not a whole lot flowing into the east side of the LLC. given this I would suspect the center to continue to migrate wsw to sw towards the greatest convergence(or reform).

[psyclone]

Look carefully at the landfall point. it has shifted north to Taylor county. that means the southern extent of TS winds will be farther north. the decision to use Anclote as the southern break for the watch looks perfectly reasonable to me. The TS wind probability map spells this out nicely. I may be an unusual bird here but I'm delighted to NOT be included in the watch... although I could effortlessly ride my bike into the watch area. If this system does gather strength and landfall near its projected area, it is in a perfect position to deliver a substantial water rise to the big bend region which is the most surge prone area in the entire basin... a point often made by Steve Lyons on the weather channel when he was their tropical expert.

I don't buy it psyclone. This isn't likely to be a nice compact wind field that you'd find with a well organized system. Extend a hurricane watch to anclote but not cover tampa bay?? Storm surge effects will be almost as bad as further up the coast if the storm really gets going and pushes all the water into tampa bay. I would have extended the TS watch area down to sarasota. Makes more sense than the watch area on the weak offshore side of the storm in the panhandle.

the wind probs don't justify it. it's not hard to figure out. If it changes the watches can be adjusted accordingly. it's why we have advisories every 6 hours. 30% or less TS wind south of the watch 5% or less for 50KT and hurricane probs don't even register.

[drewschmaltz]

Is it more common for an LLC to succumb to the MLC or vice versa?

[Airboy]

Alright, seriously.... I must've blinked. Where the hell did the LLC go now? The MLC is plainly evident of course. LLC would appear to now be directly under the new bursting convection but..... is it? Anyone have the latest recon coord's?

Around this coords: 24.233N 87.433W

[Aric Dunn]

Is it more common for an LLC to succumb to the MLC or vice versa?

where ever the convection is persisting.

[floridasun78]

Hey guys, quick question. As far as right now what do you think the impacts could be in the north Flager/ saint Augustine area? I know you get a lot of these questions but some of you folks seems to be more reliable than local news.

i want two week ago to saint Augustine nice area hope area dont get strong wind

[Aric Dunn]

Alright, seriously.... I must've blinked. Where the hell did the LLC go now? The MLC is plainly evident of course. LLC would appear to now be directly under the new bursting convection but..... is it? Anyone have the latest recon coord's?

Around this coords: 24.233N 87.433W

yeah per recon thats about it. expect that motion to continue further closer to the convection or become erratic

[AutoPenalti]

Where the hell did the LLC go? Lol. It just disappeared.