ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[weatherSnoop]

My meeting in CA was cancelled for Thursday - so I'm flying back to Jacksonville tomorrow. I live NE of the JAX airport (Nassau County) so will be able to provide updates on conditions as things change. So I think that we'll have 4 of us in NE FL providing updates.

Five! Saint Auggie still counts!!!

6 because I talk to my sister Very often. Lives in Ponte Vedra and works downtown.

[LSU2001]

If you live on the northern gulf coast you are always waiting on that north turn!! sometimes/most times it happens as forecast. Sometimes it doesn't and things change quickly. IF you live anywhere on the gulf you should be paying attention to this and any other storm that enters the gulf
JMHO,
TIm

[latitude_20]

And, first power bump in Chemuyil, Mexico. Lol, it's going to be a long night!

[sphelps8681]

If you live on the northern gulf coast you are always waiting on that north turn!! sometimes/most times it happens as forecast. Sometimes it doesn't and things change quickly. IF you live anywhere on the gulf you should be paying attention to this and any other storm that enters the gulf
JMHO,
TIm

I could not have said it better myself.

[drewschmaltz]

Out of curiosity, going back several days when #9 was still ESE of Hispanola... did any model show this track?

[gatorcane]

Continues to organize looking at the sat loops. This is the best this system has ever looked.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[tolakram]

Im not saying they are lying. They have no idea what is happening.

Please be careful about what you think you know. The cone is a fixed width given historical % error, it is not set by hand, and always surrounds the track line. All the reliable models are showing landfall in the same general area BUT anyone living on the coast should be prepared ahead of time for hurricane season and ready to react if need arises. Hurricane forecasting is not perfect but the NHC is the best there is at it.

[Bhuggs]

So we are roughly 48 hours from landfall and we can expect anything from a depression to a low cat 2 hurricane? As long as we have been watching this thing, I think it can be agreed that we are just ready to be able to say "remember that strange storm 99L" (it will always be 99L to me)

[tigerz3030]

Gatorcane, based on that loop, it looks like it's starting that turn NE as the two llc come together possibly. Just my opinion.

[SunnyThoughts]

Continues to organize looking at the sat loops. This is the best this system has ever looked.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

What a huge pinwheel motion the entire gulf has.

[waterworld]

Im not saying they are lying. They have no idea what is happening.

Please be careful about what you think you know. The cone is a fixed width given historical % error, it is not set by hand, and always surrounds the track line. All the reliable models are showing landfall in the same general area BUT anyone living on the coast should be prepared ahead of time for hurricane season and ready to react if need arises. Hurricane forecasting is not perfect but the NHC is the best there is at it.

Then I made my point.

[Steve]

Maybe staggers and reforms northeastward as it goes? Should be about time for the hook. Even if it's not the lowest pressure center, you'd think the system will be heading up that way. Kind of a trip I still don't know what 9 is gonna do like 2 days out, but the model consensus looks good to me. A hit somewhere between PCB and Cross Ciry looks good. Maybe two hits if it brushes closer to Apalachacola. 60/70mph maybe? Not sure on a part two or three. Great system to be following.

[waterworld]

Im not saying they are lying. They have no idea what is happening.

Please be careful about what you think you know. The cone is a fixed width given historical % error, it is not set by hand, and always surrounds the track line. All the reliable models are showing landfall in the same general area BUT anyone living on the coast should be prepared ahead of time for hurricane season and ready to react if need arises. Hurricane forecasting is not perfect but the NHC is the best there is at it.

Then I made my point.

And as far as what I think I know, please explain.

[Bhuggs]

I was looking at population density maps, and is it correct that the area it is targeting is one of the lower populated area of the Florida coast?

[chrisnnavarre]

Wow the way this is developing now, it looks like it's going to be huge.

[SunnyThoughts]

Wow the way this is developing now, it looks like it's going to be huge.

Yes Chris, scary looking for everybody on the Gulf Coast...Everybody in the path stay safe.

[gatorcane]

Gatorcane, based on that loop, it looks like it's starting that turn NE as the two llc come together possibly. Just my opinion.

I don't think it has turned yet.

[HurriGuy]

This definitely has not made a turn to the northeast yet

[wxman57]

One saying I've learned to trust over the decades is that "the center follows the convection. For the past couple of days, the convection has been to the south of the center and the center stayed on a westerly course, it couldn't move north. Now the convection is developing NE of the center. Watch for that NE turn tonight. Shear is decreasing and it's looking quite impressive. Should be Hermine in the morning.

[LSU2001]

Please be careful about what you think you know. The cone is a fixed width given historical % error, it is not set by hand, and always surrounds the track line. All the reliable models are showing landfall in the same general area BUT anyone living on the coast should be prepared ahead of time for hurricane season and ready to react if need arises. Hurricane forecasting is not perfect but the NHC is the best there is at it.

Then I made my point.

And as far as what I think I know, please explain.

waterworld,
I see you are new, please understand this forum does not condone forecasts stated as fact. Also it is not wise to question/argue with an admin. I love this board and cannot even begin to explain how much I have learned since 2004 and I thought I knew a good bit before I found this site. As of now there is really nothing to indicate a Pensacola landfall despite what we are seeing so far. This system is slowly organizing and it is far too early to state that it will miss the trough.
JMHO,
Tim