ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[xironman]

Great Lakes trough is a bit sharper, could follow the east coast for a while

[tolakram]

4 run trend

[tolakram]

[FLpanhandle91]

That is probably the worst coast to make landfall on in regards to angle to the coastline.

[tolakram]

[CFLHurricane]

Is there anything to change the track right now or is this final track hurricane Matthew will take

Consider the 3 day track as pretty reliable and the 5 day track as probable. It is always subject to change.

[adam0983]

Jim cantore on the weather channel just said the pattern is in place to push hurricane Matthew to the United States nothing much to change it just a matter of does it ride up the coast or does it make landfall on Florida.

[xironman]

The trough just misses grabbing it again, good for NJ

[USTropics]

Is there anything to change the track right now or is this final track hurricane Matthew will take

Consider the 3 day track as pretty reliable and the 5 day track as probable. It is always subject to change.

Even the 3 day cone can have some significant swings (see Jamaica 3 days out). Models have had a difficult time even past 48 hours at times with Matthew. A few wobbles west or east through the Bahamas and on ascent to the coast could have pretty big implications. Kind of have to nowcast this one.

3 day cone archive from NHC - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2016/gr ... p_3W.shtml

[xironman]

Jim cantore on the weather channel just said the pattern is in place to push hurricane Matthew to the United States nothing much to change it just a matter of does it ride up the coast or does it make landfall on Florida.

More importantly, what is the intensity at landfall, I don't think we can know that until it is past the islands.

[jlauderdal]

Jim cantore on the weather channel just said the pattern is in place to push hurricane Matthew to the United States nothing much to change it just a matter of does it ride up the coast or does it make landfall on Florida.

More importantly, what is the intensity at landfall, I don't think we can know that until it is past the islands.

people need to prepare for a major hurricane south of 30 n although major or cat 1 preps are the same

[stormreader]

Jim cantore on the weather channel just said the pattern is in place to push hurricane Matthew to the United States nothing much to change it just a matter of does it ride up the coast or does it make landfall on Florida.

It's true. Interaction with Cuba and Haiti could be a factor as storm wobbles into Atlantic coming from Caribbean. Very possible that we will see one more small tick west in models confirming a Fl landfall. In other words the storm will make a slightly sharper turn, feeling the ridging all the way to the Fl coast before taking a little more abrupt turn N then NNE. Not talking many miles here, but difference in impact could be huge.

[stormreader]

Is there anything to change the track right now or is this final track hurricane Matthew will take

Consider the 3 day track as pretty reliable and the 5 day track as probable. It is always subject to change.[/quote
Even the 3 day cone can have some significant swings (see Jamaica 3 days out). Models have had a difficult time even past 48 hours at times with Matthew. A few wobbles west or east through the Bahamas and on ascent to the coast could have pretty big implications. Kind of have to nowcast this one.

3 day cone archive from NHC - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2016/gr ... p_3W.shtml

Don't think there will be any big changes as far as Miles go, but once this powerful storm gets on that more westerly heading through the Bahamas it may take just a little longer than expected to divert it or induce it to make the turn N then NNE. So I do a Fl landfall is going to be difficult to avoid.

[SFLcane]

Hmmm models did shift north overnight in terms of south Florida it's gonna be a tough call but Iam 50/50 if we get into hurricane conditions. Not my call BUT if it was I'd hoist hurricane watches risk just to great with powerful hurricane nearing southern Florida.

[tgenius]

Hmmm models did shift north overnight in terms of south Florida it's gonna be a tough call but Iam 50/50 if we get into hurricane conditions. Not my call BUT if it was I'd hoist hurricane watches risk just to great with powerful hurricane nearing southern Florida.

I live in the suburbs of Miami about 20-25 miles from the coast and my WeatherBug just updated to show trop storm conditions possible for wed night and hurricane possible for Thursday; when I went to sleep said only tropical storm so the data fed to weatherbug got updated overnight. Could change again of course but found that interesting. It's also worth noting it's very quiet rainwise this morning around here.

[Ken711]

Jim cantore on the weather channel just said the pattern is in place to push hurricane Matthew to the United States nothing much to change it just a matter of does it ride up the coast or does it make landfall on Florida.

It's going to make landfall NC/VA border IMO. I've felt that way since the beginning.

[DESTRUCTION5]

06 HWRF has shifted west thru Freeport thru 60 hrs rather than well east of it fwiw. It has been less than stellar and right bias.

[NDG]

Glad to see 06z GFS trend a little east this morning, but I'm sure they will be going back and forth over the next couple of days.

[SouthDadeFish]

Hmmm models did shift north overnight in terms of south Florida it's gonna be a tough call but Iam 50/50 if we get into hurricane conditions. Not my call BUT if it was I'd hoist hurricane watches risk just to great with powerful hurricane nearing southern Florida.

I think those probabilities are a bit aggressive. NHC says 13% chance in Miami, 17% in Fort Lauderdale, and 21% in West Palm Beach. It was encouraging to see the 06Z GFS no longer trend westward. Perhaps we have reached some sort of model convergence. Regardless, residents in FL should remain vigilant.

[jlauderdal]

06 HWRF has shifted west thru Freeport thru 60 hrs rather than well east of it fwiw. It has been less than stellar and right bias.

freeport is about 90 miles from FLL..close enough that i can easily listen to 810 am broadcasting from freeport...hwrf tends to over intensify, \at this point we are just watching noise in the models..its going to be close or onshore