ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[stormchasr]

Based on (possible Nicole) weakening the ridge, the trough to the east and shear near the Bahamas, I think it would be highly likely that Matthew could potentially be a complete recurve and miss the CONUS altogether. Look at the wide Atlantic WV loop. It's pretty obvious to me. In my opinion, I wouldn't be surprised to see big east shift on the next advisory.
Again, my opinion.

[ronjon]

What you're seeing in the models is likely noise - when somebody says its shifts 20-30 miles east or west - its really meaningless. These forecast tools are not going to be that accurate. In another day if no major changes in models, then its down to real time watching and making a decision how much risk you want to accept living along the east coast.

[Emmett_Brown]

I agree that people should not be comforted much by the small E shift of the GFS, since the Euro has been good with short term motion of the storm, and the UKmet has sniffed out several trends recently, and they both menace the SE coast. Michael Ventrice just posted this (I don't know how to paste it...) "Newest ECMWF HP Cluster showing 100% of members for #Matthew to landfall over #Florida as Cat 2-3, with 75% of members impacting #NYC ~120hr"

[AutoPenalti]

Based on (possible Nicole) weakening the ridge, the trough to the east and shear near the Bahamas, I think it would be highly likely that Matthew could potentially be a complete recurve and miss the CONUS altogether. Look at the wide Atlantic WV loop. It's pretty obvious to me. In my opinion, I wouldn't be surprised to see big east shift on the next advisory.
Again, my opinion.

Again, Nicole won't weaken the ridge. Euro has been pretty clear on that.

[DESTRUCTION5]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _us_11.png

06z NAVGEM crashes ashore in WPB. Not a good model but it's part of the consensus. Cat 3ish

[AutoPenalti]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2016100406/navgem_mslp_pcpn_us_11.png

06z NAVGEM crashes ashore in WPB. Not a good model but it's part of the consensus. Cat 3ish

NAVGEM has been trending the same for days now.

[Portastorm]

OmG who is calling all clear? Lol nobody. Delete this mods but gimme a break. Nobody is calling all clear.

I'm going out on a limb and calling it. Just my opinion. Too many obvious factors.

You have gone out on your limb and now I am cutting it off.

We will delete any "all clear" posts about Matthew at this time. Repeated violations will earn folks a "vacation" from this forum.

[SeminoleWind]

When does the Euro run again?

[AutoPenalti]

When does the Euro run again?

1:45pm

[fci]

What you're seeing in the models is likely noise - when somebody says its shifts 20-30 miles east or west - its really meaningless. These forecast tools are not going to be that accurate. In another day if no major changes in models, then its down to real time watching and making a decision how much risk you want to accept living along the east coast.

20-30 miles is huge actually in this case.
Difference between being in the eyewall or the weaker west side of the storm.
Because of the uncertainty, people have to prepare for the worst and hope they get lucky.

[lando]

anyone see a few GEFS models with a HUGE loop?

[SouthFLTropics]

TIme to watch for those land effects to the tracks and timing.

I think we saw one of those land effects as it approached the Tiburon Peninsula overnight. The NE jog that Matthew took looks like it was in direct correlation with the vortex impact of the mountains.

[Aric Dunn]

anyone see a few GEFS models with a HUGE loop?

few days ago the Euro had matthew getting trapped as well as few members of the GFS have not seen it since. just have to watch

[Aric Dunn]

TIme to watch for those land effects to the tracks and timing.

I think we saw one of those land effects as it approached the Tiburon Peninsula overnight. The NE jog that Matthew took looks like it was in direct correlation with the vortex impact of the mountains.

yeah I wrote a post about that.. also it looks like it hit land and the hilly terrain there an has bounced a little to the left almost around it now.

[lando]

anyone see a few GEFS models with a HUGE loop?
http://i65.tinypic.com/dgquz8.gi

few days ago the Euro had matthew getting trapped as well as few members of the GFS have not seen it since. just have to watch

that would be very very jeanne esq, can you imagine the bahaAMS getting hit by the same major hurricane twice???

[HurricaneWarning92]

TIme to watch for those land effects to the tracks and timing.

I think we saw one of those land effects as it approached the Tiburon Peninsula overnight. The NE jog that Matthew took looks like it was in direct correlation with the vortex impact of the mountains.

yeah I wrote a post about that.. also it looks like it hit land and the hilly terrain there an has bounced a little to the left almost around it now.

I was going to say that, it does look like it wobbled slightly nw in the last couple of frames.

[tolakram]

Euro 5 run 0z trend. I'm not sure what models have trended east, maybe the GFS by a few miles, but most everything is still going west. DO me a favor, jsut stop with the amateur forecasts, especially here. I'm deleting them as soon as I see them.

[Alyono]

12Z NAM appears to have just a touch more ridging through 36 hours

[northjaxpro]

Did the 6Z GFS really trend east or is it just simply showing a faster storm?

I think it is a product of GFS moving Matthew along a bit faster.

[AdamFirst]

12Z NAM appears to have just a touch more ridging through 36 hours

Boy, we've heard that before over the past few cycles, haven't we?