ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AutoPenalti]

I'm starting to confuse myself with the discussion thread and model thread. Too many words, not enough model rubs.

[drewschmaltz]

I'm starting to confuse myself with the discussion thread and model thread. Too many words, not enough model rubs.

Did someone say model rubs?

[Michele B]

ATTENTION: Let's all take a minute and give credit where credit is due:

This could be the storm of the century. My foot is so swollen that I can't walk. Florida will get hit. Putting my shutters tomorrow morning. Hope everyone is prepared.

Bones' foot has seriously outperformed the models in both intensity and path. This quote is from 8 days ago.

I REMEMBER THAT!



YOU ARE THE STAR OF THE WEEK, Bones!



I, for one, will never doubt your foot again!

[dukeblue219]

Does anyone think that hurricane warnings can be issued if the official NHC track keeps this offshore? May be too late by the time we know how far west this will go.

I don't see anything that would stop them from issuing warnings just because the track runs up the coast. They won't issue any warnings until tropical storm force winds are 36 hours out.

[SeGaBob]

as close as it is to 8:00, I think they did.

No they didn't, they issued 2 separate products.

[Nimbus]

Chances for Hurricane force winds in Dade are ~24% - 43%

Hurricane Watch
Hurricane conditions are possible,
usually within 48 hours

Hurricane warning is only issued if Hurricane conditions are expected usually within 36 hours.

[robbielyn]

HURRICANE MATTHEW TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
745 PM EDT TUE OCT 04 2016

...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Lake Okeechobee in South
Florida.

$$


Forecaster Stewart

I know this is nitpicking.... but why didn't the NHC simply wait until the 8pm advisory to state this?

I was thinking the same thing.

maybe this will hit s fl and go up the spine through okeechobee then back out east as some of the models show

[ronjon]

Thank you all for your responses. Getting nervous here.

Take a deep breath and relax. Just go down your checklist and prepare. You have plenty of time. I would definitely crank it up ahead of time as a pretest to make sure everything is fine. As I'm sure you know, just make sure it's outside when running.

[Michele B]

Thank you all for your responses. Getting nervous here.

Don't be nervous, wzrgirl. If you're doing everything right, stocking up, battening down, prepping as best you can, and FOLLOW ALL LOCAL INSTRUCTIONS (like if, you're in an evacuation zone and they say go - you GO!) then youv'e done all anyone can do.

This site is awesome! I 've only been here a few days myself....although I've lived in FL and experienced several hurricanes for just about 60 years (!), I've learned quite a bit just in this past week. This site is a TREASURE TROVE of information (although, I'll admit - even tho I'm a bit of a weather geek - I'm learning to understand the models way better than I ever did).

It's a great group of people who love to discuss this stuff (and maybe argue about it a little, too!), and I can see they're happy to answer any and all your questions!

[Michele B]

as close as it is to 8:00, I think they did.

No they didn't, they issued 2 separate products.

Sry, i didn't notice that. Having a hard time keeping up with all the posts, advisories & recon runs.

[psyclone]

Does anyone think that hurricane warnings can be issued if the official NHC track keeps this offshore? May be too late by the time we know how far west this will go.

If it's close..yes. If it's expected to be a little more offshore look for the Hurricane watch/TS warning combo. The center will need to be pretty close to shore to bring hurricane conditions to the coast. Way too soon to be knowable. It's a real headache for forecasters...a 50 mile shift will make a huge difference in impacts. the east coast really has no choice to prepare for a cane...by the time you know for sure you're going to get hurricane conditions...sustained ts winds will already be in progress making outdoor preps impossible.

[psyclone]

Thank you all for your responses. Getting nervous here.

Take a deep breath and relax. Just go down you checklist and prepare. You have plenty of time. I would definitely crank it up ahead of time as a pretest to make sure everything is fine. As I'm sure you know, just make sure it's outside when running.

Generator users...Have a working CO detector too.

[baitism]

Is Matthew stalling over Cuba? Could be land interaction, but the forward speed has really slowed.

[SunnyThoughts]

Is Matthew stalling over Cuba? Could be land interaction, but the forward speed has really slowed.

I see that too, just looks like he is sitting and spinning...for the most part.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Is Matthew stalling over Cuba? Could be land interaction, but the forward speed has really slowed.

Normal frictional effects from massive mountains of E Cuba.

[MetroMike]

Does anyone think that hurricane warnings can be issued if the official NHC track keeps this offshore? May be too late by the time we know how far west this will go.

If it's close..yes. If it's expected to be a little more offshore look for the Hurricane watch/TS warning combo. The center will need to be pretty close to shore to bring hurricane conditions to the coast. Way too soon to be knowable. It's a real headache for forecasters...a 50 mile shift will make a huge difference in impacts. the east coast really has no choice to prepare for a cane...by the time you know for sure you're going to get hurricane conditions...sustained ts winds will already be in progress making outdoor preps impossible.

Yes this is a very unique and maybe unprecedented situation that has no procedure as to how to issue warnings here in Florida in time to react.

[jlauderdal]

Is Matthew stalling over Cuba? Could be land interaction, but the forward speed has really slowed.

yes, we have been saying odd things happen around these areas..nothing is off the table

[SeGaBob]

I'm thinking this weakens to 120 mph because of Cuba...

[floridasun78]

Chances for Hurricane force winds in Dade are ~24% - 43%

Hurricane Watch
Hurricane conditions are possible,
usually within 48 hours

Hurricane warning is only issued if Hurricane conditions are expected usually within 36 hours.

were you get that miami not under hurr watch i look HURRICANE MATTHEW WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 i dont see those number?MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) X(18) X(18)

[tarheelprogrammer]

It really appears like Matthew is heading due west over Cuba right now. Slow drift.