ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[vbhoutex]

Been interesting reading the last 5 pages. I've looked at the sat pics posted and discussions pro and con the turn to the NE. 2 things I have seen in each of the different sat pics tell me the turn will happen within the next 24 hrs if not sooner. The W side is still flattening a little along a SW-NE line. Even with the blow up near the center as this tries to stack itself, most of the convection with this system is still N or E of it and I do mean all the way out into the Atlantic. Yes, it is possible that the turn will not happen, but I do not think it is probable that it won't. Oh, btw, if I have to eat crow for this post, I like spicy barbecue sauce please.

[Aric Dunn]

may even be as far south as 23n..

[Johnny77]

Anyone know if Cancun or anywhere on the Yucatan has radar? Now that would be interesting now!

[stormhunter7]

I agree... still not vertically stacked. And last 6-8 hours we have seen I believe 4 mid level spins. I'm trying to figure out what is causing the mid level winds/dry air to come in from NE GOM it seems. Global Hawk data yesterday morning was great. I looked at each dropsonde and clearly could see some dry air around 700mb, 500mb.. and North wind in the 15kts range. Cleary what is keeping TD 9 in check.

Side note.. anyone know what's up with the g-iv from noaa?

[Aric Dunn]

im going with 23.5n 87.5w when recon arrives

[HurriGuy]

im going with 23.5bn 87.5w when recon arrives

They still haven't left....it was scheduled for 0400z

[chaser1]

I don't know guys;. I would've also thought some higher winds would have been picked up on ascat as well. Then again, how often have we seen a storm finally deepen, but the winds lagged well behind the pressure falls? Im thinking 1001mb pressure at the moment.

[Hammy]

Colin earlier this year no doubt was less impressive than this currently looks....confused by no upgrade but the NHC are the experts and they get to make the calls.

Colin had stronger winds--TD9 is struggling just to maintain itself at 30kt, and the last ASCAT pass indicates it may be even weaker than that.

[Alyono]

may even be as far south as 23n..

not with that ASCAT

[Alyono]

I agree... still not vertically stacked. And last 6-8 hours we have seen I believe 4 mid level spins. I'm trying to figure out what is causing the mid level winds/dry air to come in from NE GOM it seems. Global Hawk data yesterday morning was great. I looked at each dropsonde and clearly could see some dry air around 700mb, 500mb.. and North wind in the 15kts range. Cleary what is keeping TD 9 in check.

Side note.. anyone know what's up with the g-iv from noaa?

It's a GV now. It's in Hawaii. has more important things to fly

[Hammy]

im going with 23.5bn 87.5w when recon arrives

They still haven't left....it was scheduled for 0400z

There's a note that the flight for TD8 was delayed a few hours--I'm wondering if for whatever reason TD9's was as well.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Colin earlier this year no doubt was less impressive than this currently looks....confused by no upgrade but the NHC are the experts and they get to make the calls.

Colin had stronger winds--TD9 is struggling just to maintain itself at 30kt, and the last ASCAT pass indicates it may be even weaker than that.

ASCAT from what I am reading is highly inaccurate. Recon isn't going to fly in so oh well. I personally think this is better looking and organized than Colin ever was but it is just an opinion. Good night everyone.

[chaser1]

Been interesting reading the last 5 pages. I've looked at the sat pics posted and discussions pro and con the turn to the NE. 2 things I have seen in each of the different sat pics tell me the turn will happen within the next 24 hrs if not sooner. The W side is still flattening a little along a SW-NE line. Even with the blow up near the center as this tries to stack itself, most of the convection with this system is still N or E of it and I do mean all the way out into the Atlantic. Yes, it is possible that the turn will not happen, but I do not think it is probable that it won't. Oh, btw, if I have to eat crow for this post, I like spicy barbecue sauce please.

Cajun?

[Aric Dunn]

may even be as far south as 23n..

not with that ASCAT

ascat and convection...not so much

[SeGaBob]

It's like this has to be a cat 5 for certain people to just admit it's becoming better organized...

[Alyono]

Colin earlier this year no doubt was less impressive than this currently looks....confused by no upgrade but the NHC are the experts and they get to make the calls.

Colin had stronger winds--TD9 is struggling just to maintain itself at 30kt, and the last ASCAT pass indicates it may be even weaker than that.

ASCAT from what I am reading is highly inaccurate. Recon isn't going to fly in so oh well. I personally think this is better looking and organized that Colin ever was but it is just an opinion. Good night everyone.

It's reasonably accurate. It does have a SLIGHT low bias. However, if this could be a TS, we should see a decent sized area of 30 kt vectors, not a mere 3 25 kt vectors

[Aric Dunn]

so no recon now ?

[txwatcher91]

Most recent IR frame shows a new convective burst of extremely cold cloud tops right over the center or near it. Also it seems like the cloud elements are starting to spin a little which in my experience usually means a system is stacking and/or organizing quickly.

[Hurrilurker]

I don't know, every night it looks like it's getting its act together, convection consolidates and bombs out, then the following morning it falls apart into a disorganized mess again. I've never seen a disturbance survive this long before and never materialize into anything. I'm not confident.

[Alyono]

wonder if this is a mandatory down time for maintenance? I believe the NOAA planes can only fly so many hours before mandatory maintenance is required.

Not a bad time for it, honestly. We just got a good estimate via ASCAT