ATL: COLIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hammy]

Euro and GEM have trended north and stronger as well, and both seem to bring it to hurricane intensity as it races northeast, both showing a much better defined storm with no doubt about it being closed or separate from the frontal system.

[bamajammer4eva]

Euro shifted a bit North from 24 Hrs ago both images are at 00z Tue and 2 mb lower down to 1001mb

Note-2 images are from different model runs at same time and not the same model run. storm is headed almost due east from both positions and not Northward as the 2 graphics would make it seem.

[AdamFirst]

This run is a complete mess, but here's your intensity outlier, the GFDL:



Basically bombs it from TD off Yucatan to near minimal category 1 in 12~ hours

It's also your fastest model suite, as this is off the SW Florida coast Monday morning.

[bamajammer4eva]

This run is a complete mess, but here's your intensity outlier, the GFDL:

[img]http://i.imgur.com/INi2x0T.png

Basically bombs it from TD off Yucatan to near minimal category 1 in 12~ hours

It's also your fastest model suite, as this is off the SW Florida coast Monday morning.

Impressive!!

[northjaxpro]

The recent EURO really got my attention. The trend the past 12-24 hours with EURO has been more north and west and also trended stronger. Now the latest run moves it toward the Big Bend region to near hurricane strength on Tuesday. This would really bring about significant impacts across North.and Northeast Florida if this EURO run comes to fruition.

[Extratropical94]

If this system becomes TS Colin before June 12, it would mark the earliest formation of the third named storm in an Atlantic hurricane season since reliable records began. The current record holder is Tropical Storm 3 from 1887.

[drezee]

The recent EURO really got my attention. The trend the past 12-24 hours with EURO has been more north and west and also trended stronger. Now the latest run moves it toward the Big Bend region to near hurricane strength on Tuesday. This would really bring about significant impacts across North.and Northeast Florida if this EURO run comes to fruition.

Also decent shear profiles for FL, there would be a tornado threat taking the Euro at face value..

[northjaxpro]

Yes, a point well taken!! The potential for tornadoes will be a huge concern across North Florida and the surrounding region.The Monday-Tuesday period looks to be extremely interesting if you take the EURO seriously, which many of us does of course.

[johngaltfla]

Ugh. Now 50% 70% and Sarasota-Manatee counties look to be on the wet side of this sucker in some models.

CZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Bonnie, located about 335 miles east of Cape Hatteras, North
Carolina.

1. Widespread cloudiness and thunderstorms over the western Caribbean
Sea remain disorganized. A low pressure system is expected to form
in association with this disturbed weather over the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico or the adjacent waters by Sunday and drift
generally northward. Despite strong upper-level winds, this low is
likely to develop into a tropical cyclone as it subsequently moves
northeastward across the south-central and eastern Gulf of Mexico
early next week. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and
flooding are possible over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula,
western Cuba and the Florida Peninsula during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

Forecaster Kimberlain

[tailgater]

The Mighty NAM is what I'm thinking, farther north/west but sheared badly with most of the weather north and east of the exposed center.

[NDG]

Pressures in the island of Roatan north of the Honduran coast is reporting a pressure of 1007 mb this morning with calm winds, this area is where a broad low pressure at the surface seems to be forming.

[NDG]

Indeed the Euro has trended north and a little stronger. It also showed the UL trough not as far south as previous runs, thus the the further northerly track.

[gatorcane]

06z guidance

[gatorcane]

Convection on the increase

[CourierPR]

That's a pretty tight cluster this early in the game.

[jlauderdal]

That's a pretty tight cluster this early in the game.

Track forecast easy..intensity not easy as usual

[cycloneye]

Up to 70%-80%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Bonnie, located about 315 miles northwest of Bermuda.

Widespread cloudiness and thunderstorms over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea are currently poorly organized. A low pressure
system is expected to form in association with this disturbed
weather over the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico or the adjacent waters
by tomorrow and move generally northward. Subsequently, this low is
likely to develop into a tropical cyclone as it moves northeastward
across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and flooding are
possible over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, western Cuba, the
Florida Keys, and the Florida Peninsula during the next several
days. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

$$
Forecaster Beven

[gatorcane]

[northjaxpro]

Pressures in the island of Roatan north of the Honduran coast is reporting a pressure of 1007 mb this morning with calm winds, this area is where a broad low pressure at the surface seems to be forming.

Yes, NDG, I agree. That is where the Low is now in the Gulf of Honduras. It is drifting slowly due north currently.

[caneman]

What is everyone's guess on max intensity in the gulf?