WPAC: LIONROCK - Post-Tropical

[stormwise]

The 12Z GFS now has a very ECMWF-like solution for Lionrock's intensity. Yikes.

How about 899mb?

WOW PERFECT storm.

[1900hurricane]

I'm really starting to believe that Lionrock is going to be a big deal. Guidance is becoming more consistent in taking a very powerful storm and hooking it left into a negative tilt mid-latitude trough Sandy style.

[euro6208]

WDPN34 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 12W (LIONROCK) WARNING
NR 21//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 12W (LIONROCK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 362 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS TS 12W CONSOLIDATING INTO WELL DEFINED SPIRAL BANDED
SYSTEM IN THE LAST SIX HOURS. A TIGHTLY WOUND LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER IS VISIBLE IN A 230101Z MHS 89 GHZ IMAGE GIVING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED
AT 45 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON THE IMPROVING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND
OBJECTIVE DVORAK FIXES FROM ALL AGENCIES REPORTING A CURRENT
INTENSITY OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED
SLIGHTLY IN BOTH THE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD CHANNELS, AND VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR REMAINS MODERATE NEAR 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE WARM NEAR 30 CELSIUS, BUT AVAILABLE OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT IS RATHER LOW. TS 12W IS CURRENTLY QUASI-STATIONARY DRIFTING
TO THE SOUTHEAST IN ABSENCE OF A DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. IN THE NEAR FORECAST TS 12W WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY AS
TWO BUILDING RIDGES COMPETE AS THE DOMINANT STEERING RIDGE. A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHWEST WILL HAVE MORE INFLUENCE IN
THE NEXT 48 HOURS TRACKING THE SYSTEM SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHWEST. A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) IS POSITIONED TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND WILL COUNTER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST TO BE GRADUAL AS OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST. HOWEVER, ENHANCED OUTFLOW WILL BE
OFFSET BY THE LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AS THE SYSTEM CHURNS UP
WATER UNDER ITS QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THE NER WILL EVENTUALLY BUILD IN FROM
THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BECOMING THE DOMINANT STEERING RIDGE AROUND TAU
72 DRIVING THE SYSTEM ON A NORTHEAST TRACK. SIMULTANEOUSLY A
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ENHANCING OUTFLOW AND
TS 12W IS EXPECTED TO REACH TYPHOON STRENGTH BY TAU 72 REACHING A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AND EVENTUALLY TAKE A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK DUE TO THE ESTABLISHMENT
OF THE NER. HOWEVER, THE SOLUTIONS ARE IN SHARP DISAGREEMENT AS TO
THE EXACT POSITION AND TIMING OF THE TRACK SHIFTS. DUE TO THE
COMPLEXITY OF THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[stormwise]

I'm really starting to believe that Lionrock is going to be a big deal. Guidance is becoming more consistent in taking a very powerful storm and hooking it left into a negative tilt mid-latitude trough Sandy style.

Typhoon Hunter material

[stormwise]

here we go looks to be ramping up now.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Yeah I'm keeping an eye on Lionrock in regards to potential Japan landfall. I'm wary of these crazy low pressures the models are showing, they typically overcook these storms in the sub-tropics for some reason.

[NotoSans]

Japan and China may need to monitor this storm very closely. Devastating storm surge may occur at Ise Bay if the latest Euro run verifies. Model guidance also seems to have came into better agreement for the northwestward turn, bringing a large and powerful cyclone to northeast China.

I'm still a bit skeptical about the intensity forecast from the global models though. As mentioned before, they often over-intensify typhoons at this latitude. But the environment does seem favorable and supports a very strong typhoon, so I won't be surprised if Lionrock turns out to be a high-end Cat.4.

BTW, JMA and JTWC are in excellent agreement for the intensity estimate at 12Z - they both go with 60 kt.

[NotoSans]

Other intensity guidance seems to be more conservative on this one when compared to the global models. Particularly speaking, the latest HWRF run only supports a 946 mb typhoon. It may be interesting to see which camp wins the battle.

[somethingfunny]

only .... a 946 mb typhoon

Only in the Western Pacific

[kala]

[euro6208]

WDPN34 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 12W (LIONROCK) WARNING
NR 24//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 12W (LIONROCK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 297 NM EAST OF
KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA
CONSOLIDATED SYMMETRIC CDO FEATURE WITH A RAGGED EYE BEGINNING TO
FORM. THE POSITION IS BASED ON SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS
AND IS BASED ON OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES
REPORTING T4.0 (65 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
PRESENCE OF BOTH A POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, BUT IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF DETERIORATION AS A DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE TO THE
SOUTH FORMS AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM THE DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE TO
THE NORTHWEST STRENGTHENS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES ARE CURRENTLY
FAVORABLE DIRECTLY OVER THE SYSTEM. TY 12W IS LOCATED WITHIN A WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE DOMINANT WESTERN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) AND EASTERN STR, AND IS DRIFTING GENERALLY SOUTHWARD.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 12W WILL REMAIN TRAPPED WITHIN THIS COMPETING STEERING
ENVIRONMENT WHILE DRIFTING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD THROUGH
TAU 36. THE WESTERN STR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE
EAST CHINA SEA AND OKINAWA PROVIDING A BARRIER TO ANY SIGNIFICANT
WESTWARD MOVEMENT. TS 12W IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY UNDER
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS TO A PEAK OF 80 KNOTS BY TAU 36.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) IS
FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE SOUTH OF TS 12W WHILE A DEEP MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER JAPAN, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD. WHILE THE MODEL VORTEX TRACKERS DIFFER ON THE EXACT
NATURE OF THE TURN EASTWARD, THE TRACKERS ALL SHOW AN EASTWARD TURN
WITH DIFFERENT TRACK SPEEDS. DUE TO THE COMPLEXITY OF THE STEERING
ENVIRONMENT AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE EASTWARD TURN, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 AUG 2016 Time : 220000 UTC
Lat : 25:43:46 N Lon : 133:02:06 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.5 / 963.5mb/ 77.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.5 4.5 3.3

Center Temp : -64.7C Cloud Region Temp : -64.7C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 62km
- Environmental MSLP : 1000mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 31.3 degrees

****************************************************

[euro6208]

EURO at 908mb...GFS at 887mb!!!...Lionrock trying to close out the monsoon gyre with a bang!

[euro6208]

Rapid intensification about to commence...

[stormwise]

2016 typhoon information No. 39 on the No. 10 (position)
2016 August 24, 09 hours and 50 minutes Japan Meteorological Agency forecast section announcement

(heading)
　strong typhoon No. 10 is, the east-southeast about 170 kilometers Minami Daito Island
1 hour at a speed of approximately 15 km we go to the south-southwest to.

(Text)
　is strong typhoon No. 10, 24, 9 and sometimes
Minami Daito Island east-southeast of about 170 kilometers
north latitude 25 degrees 20 minutes, in the east longitude 132 degrees 50 minutes,
proceed to the south-southwest at a speed of about 15 kilometers an hour we out.
Air pressure in the center is 965 hectopascals
center maximum wind speed of 35 meters around,
the maximum instantaneous wind speed at 50 meters
is within 90 kilometers radius from the center
has become a wind speed 25 meters or more of the storm.
In addition, within a 220 km radius from the center
has been blowing in the strong wind is more than 15 meters wind speed.

　The center of the typhoon, 12 hours 24 days 21 Sometimes after
Minami Daito Island east-southeast about 140 kilometers of the
north latitude 25 degrees 05 minutes, around the 132 degrees 25 minutes east longitude
is expected to reach a radius of 60 km within the circle.
955 hectopascals of atmospheric pressure center
maximum wind speed of 40 meters near the center,
the maximum instantaneous wind speed is expected to 60 meters.
Is within 170 kilometers radius from the center of the forecast circle
there is a possibility to enter the storm area of more than 25 meters wind speed.
　24 hours 25 days 9 Sometimes after
Minami Daito Island southeast about 140 km of the
north latitude 24 degrees 55 minutes, around the 132 degrees 10 minutes east longitude
reached a radius of 110 km within the circle,
is expected to be in a very strong typhoon.
Atmospheric pressure is 945 hectopascals central
maximum wind speed of 45 meters near the center,
the maximum instantaneous wind speed is expected to 60 meters.
Is within 240 kilometers radius from the center of the forecast circle
there is a possibility to enter the storm area of more than 25 meters wind speed.
　48 hours 26 days 9 Sometimes after
Minami Daito Island southeast of about 170 kilometers
north latitude 24 degrees 35 minutes, around the 132 degrees 10 minutes east longitude
is expected to reach a radius of 200 km within the circle.
The center of the atmospheric pressure is 935 hectopascals
center maximum wind speed of 45 meters around,
the maximum instantaneous wind speed is expected to 65 meters.
Is within 350 kilometers radius from the center of the forecast circle
there is a possibility to enter the storm area of more than 25 meters wind speed.
　72 hours 27 days 9 Sometimes after
Japan's south of
north latitude 24 degrees 50 minutes, around the 132 degrees 35 minutes east longitude
is expected to reach within a circle with a radius of 310 km.
The center of the atmospheric pressure is 935 hectopascals
center maximum wind speed of 45 meters around,
the maximum instantaneous wind speed is expected to 65 meters.
It is within a radius of 460 kilometers from the center of the forecast circle
there is a possibility to enter the storm area of more than 25 meters wind speed.
　In addition, the probability that the center of the typhoon to enter the forecast circle is 70%.

Please note the future of typhoon information.

[1900hurricane]

Lionrock might be spending quite a bit of time over that warm eddy in the Kuroshio Current. OHC is >100 kJ/cm^2 there.

[mrbagyo]

This system kinda reminds me of Typhoon Roke in 2011, they both managed to prosper at such high latitude.

[dexterlabio]

This system kinda reminds me of Typhoon Roke in 2011, they both managed to prosper at such high latitude.

Yes! That typhoon even managed to be a solid Cat4 while going northwards. Also one of those systems that have the weirdest track..

[euro6208]

WDPN34 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 12W (LIONROCK) WARNING
NR 25//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 12W (LIONROCK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 274 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED EYE FEATURE WITH A SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING
INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE POSITION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON OBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES REPORTING T4.0 (75 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF RADIAL OUTFLOW THAT HAS IMPROVED
SOME IN THE LAST SIX HOURS DUE TO OPENING DISTANCE FROM THE
ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
VALUES ARE CURRENTLY VERY FAVORABLE DIRECTLY OVER THE SYSTEM. TY 12W
IS LOCATED WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE DOMINANT
WESTERN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND EASTERN STR, AND IS DRIFTING
GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 12W WILL REMAIN TRAPPED WITHIN THIS COMPETING STEERING
ENVIRONMENT WHILE DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH
TAU 36. BEYOND TAU 36 THE EASTERN STEERING RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE SOUTH AND SHIFT THE TRACK ABRUPTLY TO THE NORTHEAST. TY 12W IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY UNDER
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS TO A PEAK OF 85 KNOTS BY TAU 24. HOWEVER,
OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT IS LOW AND UPWELLING DUE TO A PERIOD OF QUASI-
STATIONARY MOTION AS THE STEERING RIDGES SHIFT WILL PREVENT FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL KEEP TY
12W TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD AS A DEEP MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER JAPAN, PROVIDING AN EXHAUST MECHANISM ALLOWING
THE SYSTEM TO BRIEFLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO WARMER WATERS.
WHILE THE MODEL VORTEX TRACKERS DIFFER ON THE EXACT
NATURE OF THE TURN EASTWARD, THE TRACKERS ALL SHOW AN EASTWARD TURN
WITH DIFFERENT TRACK SPEEDS. DUE TO THE COMPLEXITY OF THE STEERING
ENVIRONMENT AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE EASTWARD TURN, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 AUG 2016 Time : 053000 UTC
Lat : 24:59:31 N Lon : 132:26:15 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 943.7mb/104.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.6 5.6 5.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -37.0C Cloud Region Temp : -72.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 78km
- Environmental MSLP : 1001mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 30.7 degrees

****************************************************