CPAC: MADELINE - Post-Tropical

[JtSmarts]

When is last time a cane hit the big island? Hawaii has had so much action around it for a few years...

I don't think the Big Island has ever been hit by cane in recorded history. It seems Kauai usually gets the hurricane landfalls.

[Yellow Evan]

Code: Select all

                    * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  MADELINE    EP142016  08/27/16  18 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    55    58    61    64    67    69    66    61    56    50    46    38    32
V (KT) LAND       55    58    61    64    67    69    66    61    56    50    46    38    32
V (KT) LGEM       55    59    62    64    65    66    63    56    48    41    35    30    26
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        13     7     8     7     7     8     4    10    18    21    29    30    28
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -5    -4    -6    -5    -5     0     9    13     4    10     4     5     2
SHEAR DIR         46    94   125   118   120   145   217   221   248   233   245   259   272
SST (C)         28.4  28.0  27.5  27.2  27.0  26.8  26.4  25.9  25.8  26.1  26.3  26.7  27.1
POT. INT. (KT)   148   143   138   135   133   131   127   122   121   125   127   131   135
200 MB T (C)   -53.5 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -52.5 -52.8 -52.1 -52.5 -52.1 -52.7 -52.8 -53.4
200 MB VXT (C)   0.1   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.4   0.5   0.7   0.7   0.6   0.7   0.6   0.4   0.3
TH_E DEV (C)       6     6     6     6     6     7     6     6     6     7     7     8     8
700-500 MB RH     61    64    60    59    56    50    45    43    43    42    42    43    42
MODEL VTX (KT)    22    22    22    23    24    25    23    21    20    18    18    15    13
850 MB ENV VOR    26    36    41    33    37    48    57    48    36    29    24    15    19
200 MB DIV        44    70    58    47    57    62    15     7   -14    -6    14   -16     3
700-850 TADV      -7    -2     1     1     3     4     9    12     3    -1     0    -2    -1
LAND (KM)       1732  1647  1563  1489  1415  1237  1058   881   693   497   275   117    20
LAT (DEG N)     15.5  15.9  16.3  16.8  17.2  18.3  19.3  20.2  20.8  21.0  21.0  21.0  21.0
LONG(DEG W)    139.0 139.7 140.4 141.0 141.6 143.1 144.7 146.4 148.3 150.3 152.7 154.8 156.9
STM SPEED (KT)     9     8     8     7     8     9     9    10     9    10    11    10     9
HEAT CONTENT      24    22    21    16     9     8     2     0     1     2     7    12    11

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/  9      CX,CY:  -6/  5
  T-12 MAX WIND:  45            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  469  (MEAN=586)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  17.4 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  65.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR):            5.2

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          1.   2.   2.   3.   4.   4.   3.   3.   2.   2.   2.   1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     0.   0.   1.   1.   3.   5.   5.   4.   2.  -1.  -5.  -7.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   1.   2.   2.   2.   1.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.
  PERSISTENCE            2.   3.   4.   4.   4.   3.   2.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.   0.   0.   1.   2.   2.   1.   2.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.  -4.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   0.   1.   3.   4.   2.   0.  -2.  -5.  -5.  -8.  -9.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   2.   2.   3.   3.
  GOES PREDICTORS       -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           3.   6.   9.  12.  14.  11.   6.   1.  -5.  -9. -17. -23.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   55. LAT, LON:   15.5   139.0

      ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142016 MADELINE   08/27/16  18 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor             Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):    10.0     -22.0  to   38.5       0.53         999.0
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :    84.4      40.3  to  144.5       0.42         999.0
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) :    18.4       0.0  to   75.9       0.24         999.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :    17.4      38.9  to    2.1       0.58         999.0
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :     8.4      18.9  to    1.4       0.60         999.0
 MAXIMUM WIND (kt)     :    55.0      22.5  to  132.0       0.91         999.0
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :    55.2     -11.0  to  135.3       0.45         999.0
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2):   291.2     638.0  to  -68.2       0.49         999.0
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP  :     2.1       2.1  to   -1.7       0.00           0.0
 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm:     0.0      81.4  to    0.0       1.00         999.0
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean (12.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%)
 
 Matrix of RI probabilities
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:     0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
    Logistic:     2.2%    6.3%    2.5%    1.0%    0.4%    1.0%    0.7%
    Bayesian:     0.1%    1.5%    0.6%    0.1%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
   Consensus:     0.8%    2.6%    1.0%    0.4%    0.1%    0.4%    0.2%

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142016 MADELINE   08/27/16  18 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142016
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 27 2016

GOES-West visible imagery shows that the center of Madeline is
located on the northeastern edge of a ragged area of central
convection, with a large convective band wrapping around the western
semicircle of the circulation. The initial intensity estimate is 50
kt, which is a blend of the latest subjective and objective Dvorak
classifications. The SHIPS model output shows the vertical shear
decreasing below 10 kt by tonight, while Madeline is moving over
SSTs above 27C. This environment should allow for some additional
strengthening during the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, the
tropical cyclone will be moving over cooler SSTs and into a drier
environment, with mid-level relative humidity values falling below
50 percent. This should result in gradual weakening, followed by
steadier weakening later in the period as the vertical wind shear
increases above 20 kt. The new NHC intensity forecast is a little
higher than the previous one in the short range given the observed
strengthening, and is similar afterward. This forecast is close to
or a bit below the latest IVCN consensus.

The initial motion estimate is 305/09. The track forecast reasoning
remains unchanged, as Madeline should continue moving generally
northwestward for the next 48 hours under the influence of mid-level
ridge centered well to its northeast. Later in the period, a
strengthening mid-level ridge north of the Hawaiian Island will
become the dominant steering mechanism and result in a westward or
slightly south of due westward track. Through 72 hours the new NHC
forecast is largely and update of the previous near one and close to
the TVCN consensus near the middle of the guidance envelope. At
days 4 and 5 the global models have shown run-to-run inconsistency
about the details of Madeline's track near the Hawaiian Islands.
The latest runs of the ECMWF, GFS, and HWRF have shifted south, with
a track south of the Big Island, while much of the rest of the
guidance is farther north. The NHC track has been shifted southward
a little at days 4 and 5, but lies a little north of the multi-model
consensus and well north of the southerly set of models.

Given the lack of consistency in the track guidance, the confidence
in the track foreast late in the period is lower than usual and it
is too early to determine what impacts Madeline could have on the
Hawaiian Islands late in the forecast period. It is important to
remind users that the average day 4 and 5 track forecast errors for
eastern Pacific tropical cyclones are around 145 and 170 miles,
respectively.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 15.7N 139.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 16.4N 140.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 17.3N 141.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 18.3N 143.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 19.3N 144.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 20.4N 148.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 31/1800Z 20.5N 152.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 01/1800Z 20.0N 157.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[Kingarabian]

I don't really see an issue with the SSTs... if there will be weakening, the main culprit will strictly be shear.

[CrazyC83]

At what point does Recon fly into the CPAC storms? Around 145-150W?

[cycloneye]

Mission next Tuesday.

BEGIN 12 HRLY FIXES ON TROPICAL
STORM MADELINE AT 30/18Z NEAR 19.6N 148.0W.

[Kingarabian]

G-IV plane is important will be extremely helpful.

[Kingarabian]

At what point does Recon fly into the CPAC storms? Around 145-150W?

I would say around that time. Per the recon thread, they'll begin flights on Tuesday. Madeline should be near or past 145W.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS close call with the big island, but has a weaker Madeline moving to the south of the big island. Not sure if it's so weak that the low level flow controls it, or the ridge is super strong to force it south.

It's also been moving more west than NW. I wonder how this will affect the track...

[Kingarabian]

Not sure if the MLC and LLC are vertically stacked.

[Kingarabian]

GFDL usually has a north bias in the CPAC for some reason but it's pretty close to Maui.

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 14, 2016082800, , BEST, 0, 157N, 1398W, 50, 998, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 30, 30, 60, 1011, 180, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MADELINE, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 022,

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142016
800 PM PDT SAT AUG 27 2016

The cloud pattern has changed little in organization during the
past several hours and convection is not as deep as earlier today.
However, the pattern still consists of a cyclonically curved
convective band around the center. Dvorak estimates continue
to support an initial intensity of 50 kt. The cyclone is expected to
be moving within an environment of light shear for the next 2 to 3
days and over warm waters. This should encourage some
intensification. After that time however, the shear is expected to
increase to above 20 kt, and the environment will be less humid,
resulting in gradual weakening. The NHC forecast is very similar to
its predecessor, and is very close to the intensity consensus IVCN.

Satellite fixes indicate that Madeline is moving toward the west-
northwest or 285 degrees at 7 kt. The cyclone is located on
the southwestern edge of the subtropical ridge and is approaching a
large mid-latitude trough to its northwest. This pattern should
steer Madeline on a more west-northwest course during the next day
or two. The trough is forecast to lift out quickly and be replaced
by a strong ridge in about 3 days. This pattern should force
Madeline to turn toward the west or even south of due west by the
end of the forecast period. Track guidance has been very consistent
with this solution, and the NHC forecast is in a narrow gap
between the previous NHC prediction and the multi-model consensus.
Given the small southward shift of the consensus at day 5, the NHC
forecast position was adjusted southward accordingly.

The confidence in the track foreast late in the period is lower than
usual and it is too early to determine what impacts Madeline could
have on the Hawaiian Islands late in the forecast period. It is
important to remind users that the average day 4 and 5 track
forecast errors for eastern Pacific tropical cyclones are around 145
and 170 miles, respectively.

Given that Madeline has moved into the Central Pacific basin, future
information on this system will be issued by the Central Pacific
Hurricane Center.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 15.7N 140.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 16.5N 141.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 17.4N 142.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 18.4N 143.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 19.2N 145.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 31/0000Z 20.0N 149.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 01/0000Z 19.5N 153.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 02/0000Z 19.0N 158.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

[stormwise]

If it landfalls likey another one of those MEGA 40 mph storms.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142016
1100 PM HST SAT AUG 27 2016

The cloud pattern around Madeline has not become any better
organized over the past 12 hours and the amount of cold overcast
has decreased. Subjective Dvorak analyses from HFO and JTWC had
current intensities of 3.0, or 45 kt, while SAB had 3.5, or 55 kt.
I have kept the intensity at 50 kt, which may be generous.

The cyclone is tracking along the southwest edge of the subtropical
ridge. Aloft, a narrow ridge separates Madeline from a trough to
the northwest. The global models are in good agreement showing the
trough lifting out to the northeast in 3 days as a ridge builds
along 160W. As that ridge builds, Madeline should curve toward the
west, then toward the west southwest. The current track is very
slightly slower and farther south than the previous forecast.

Madeline is expected to be moving through an area with low vertical
wind shear over the next 2 days and sea surface temperatures, SST,
will remain warm. Conditions should be favorable for some
intensification during that period. After that, shear is expected
to increase and the environment is expected to become drier, so
weakening is expected. This forecast is very similar to the final
forecast from NHC, but the intensity has been kept a bit lower,
based on the current lack of strong organization on satellite
imagery.

The confidence in the track forecast decreases by day 3, so it is
too early to determine what impacts Madeline could have on the
Hawaiian Islands late in the forecast period. It is important to
remind users that the average day 4 and 5 track forecast errors for
central Pacific tropical cyclones are around 185 and 250 miles,
respectively.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 16.1N 140.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 16.8N 141.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 17.8N 143.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 18.7N 144.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 19.4N 146.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 31/0600Z 19.6N 150.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 01/0600Z 19.0N 154.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 02/0600Z 18.5N 159.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Donaldson

[Blinhart]

Should give them some great information on the Upper Levels and all the steering currents and what is gonna be dictating what will happen with both Madeline and Lester.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142016
500 AM HST SUN AUG 28 2016

The cloud pattern around Madeline has not improved over the past 12
hours and the amount of cold overcast has changed little. An ASCAT
pass at 28/0706 UTC showed winds less than 40 kt. I have set the
initial intensity at 45 kt. I do not believe this represents a
weakening of the cyclone. It seems more likely that the cyclone has
been weaker than analyzed over the past 24 hours. I have adjusted
the intensity of the past positions down to 45 kt.

The cyclone continues to track along the southwest edge of the
subtropical ridge. A narrow ridge aloft separates Madeline from
a trough to the northwest. The global models are in good agreement
showing the trough lifting out to the northeast in 3 days as a ridge
builds along 160W. As that ridge builds, Madeline should curve
toward the west, then slightly south of west. The current track
is very slightly slower and farther south than the previous
forecast.

Madeline is expected to be moving through an area with low vertical
wind shear over the next 2 days and sea surface temperatures, SST,
will remain warm. Conditions should be favorable for some
intensification during that period. After that, shear is expected
to increase and the environment is expected to become drier, so
weakening is expected. This forecast is very similar to the previous
one, but the intensity has been kept a bit lower, based on the
current poor organization on satellite imagery.

The confidence in the track forecast decreases by day 3, so it is
too early to determine what impacts Madeline could have on the
Hawaiian Islands late in the forecast period. It is important to
remind users that the average day 4 and 5 track forecast errors for
central Pacific tropical cyclones are around 185 and 250 miles,
respectively.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 16.3N 140.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 17.2N 141.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 18.3N 143.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 18.9N 145.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 19.4N 146.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 31/1200Z 19.4N 150.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 19.0N 155.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 02/1200Z 18.0N 159.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Donaldson

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142016
1100 AM HST SUN AUG 28 2016

The cloud pattern around Madeline has become better organized over
the past several hours with colder cloud tops seen near the system's
center. Latest Dvorak intensity estimates from all the fix centers
came in at 3.5 or 55 kt. Thus we have raised the intensity of
Madeline to 55 kt with this advisory package.

Madeline continues to track along the southwest edge of the
subtropical ridge. A narrow ridge aloft separates Madeline from
a trough to the northwest. The global models are in good agreement
showing the trough lifting out to the northeast in a couple of days
as a ridge builds along 160W. As that ridge builds, Madeline should
curve toward the west, then slightly south of west with a slight
increase in forward speed. The latest forecast track follows closely
with the previous track and lies close to HWRF and consensus
guidance.

Model guidance indicates that there is a small window for continued
intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours as vertical wind
shear remains low and warm sea surface temperatures lie along its
path. Beyond 36 hours, guidance indicates that west to southwest
vertical wind shear will increase. The latest intensity forecast
follows closely with the previous forecast though it does bring
Madeline up to hurricane strength during the 24 to 36 hour time
frame before a slow weakening trend begins. This follows closely
with most of the reliable guidance.

The confidence in the track forecast decreases by day 3, so it is
too early to determine what impacts Madeline could have on the
Hawaiian Islands late in the forecast period. It is important to
remind users that the average day 4 and 5 track forecast errors for
central Pacific tropical cyclones is around 185 and 250 miles,
respectively.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 16.9N 141.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 17.6N 143.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 18.5N 144.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 19.0N 146.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 19.3N 148.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 31/1800Z 19.2N 152.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 01/1800Z 18.5N 156.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 02/1800Z 17.5N 161.1W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Burke

[Kingarabian]

Looks like an eye is trying to clear out.

[CrazyC83]

Given that the ASCAT pass earlier was well under Dvorak, I'd have only gone 50 kt even if that supports 60 or 65.