ATL: COLIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AJC3]

Also, with the models suddenly indicating a stronger Colin making landfall on the peninsula by tomorrow evening, I would have to believe the Storm Prediction Center out in Oklahoma City will probably increase the threat level for tornadoes from slight to marginal for the next 36 hours. I am really growing concerned about the tornado threat all across the peninsula the next 36 hours or so.

You probably meant to say from "Slight" to "Enhanced". "Marginal" is the category below "Slight"

[gatorcane]

Very intense blowup of convection underway along northern coast of Yucatan and south of the center

[cycloneye]

Mission is over.

[tolakram]

HWRF running, pretty far south for landfall.

[northjaxpro]

Also, with the models suddenly indicating a stronger Colin making landfall on the peninsula by tomorrow evening, I would have to believe the Storm Prediction Center out in Oklahoma City will probably increase the threat level for tornadoes from slight to marginal for the next 36 hours. I am really growing concerned about the tornado threat all across the peninsula the next 36 hours or so.

You probably meant to say from "Slight" to "Enhanced". "Marginal" is the category below "Slight"

LOL.. You are right AJC3. I did not even realized that I had misstated like that. I have been monitoring everything here today. But, thanks. Yeah, I meant to say from slight to Enhanced. I am worried about the tornado risk tomorrow here and all over the state, especially with Colin organizing unexpectedly well.

[emeraldislenc]

You are right very intense blow up.

[MetroMike]

Also, with the models suddenly indicating a stronger Colin making landfall on the peninsula by tomorrow evening, I would have to believe the Storm Prediction Center out in Oklahoma City will probably increase the threat level for tornadoes from slight to marginal for the next 36 hours. I am really growing concerned about the tornado threat all across the peninsula the next 36 hours or so.

You probably meant to say from "Slight" to "Enhanced". "Marginal" is the category below "Slight"

That is very much a possibility but for now it's only slight risk

[chaser1]

Recon finds windshift much further east and south than earlier estimated by the NHC on its latest advisory.
Just as I thought

That was a good call. Now I wonder as the LLC and MLC migrate together as it appears to be at an angle, if we end up with a big change in trajectory later.

I'm still here shaking my head at the Depression upgrade, and now its a T.S. lol? Well, i'm guessing there's gonna be some serious organization changes tonight as we begin to see a much better consolitation and an eastward shift to the COC. That was a good find, NDG. I'd guess this farther east and south wind shift is indicative of falling pressures under what many of us were looking at closer to the MLC. I do think this will likely bring the center of Colin (and certainly the associated heavy weather) at a closer parellel to Florida. I also think coastal areas near Ft. Myers, Tampa and points north, will likely see a bigger flooding risk than what we might have thought 12-24 hours ago.

By the way, I don't think anyone has touched on this but not only does this track comfortably fall within climotology, but also in agreement with many of our own assumptions regarding where this season's storm tracks might pose a bit more of a threat. I've learned many years ago that an early track such as this, is often a harbinger something stronger yet to come.

[caneman]

Chaser1, not to be confrontational by why are you shaking your head at the upgrade? It seems warranted to me. There have been enough numerous reportings of upward to 40 - 50 mph winds, wind shift etc?? Heck, we're getting pelted by a serious feeder band right now with heavy wind and rain. One of the models now takes it up to high end tropical storm. If you're expecting a beautiful storm in June it just doesn't happen and this isn't the time to for the nhc to play games.

[tropicwatch]

Vortex message and is west not east of previous HH spot.
roduct: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 5th day of the month at 23:00Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5307
Tropical Depression: Three (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 15
A. Time of Center Fix: 5th day of the month at 22:14:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22°57'N 87°47'W (22.95N 87.7833W)
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 31kts (~ 35.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 145 nautical miles (167 statute miles) to the NE/ENE (56°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 122° at 34kts (From the ESE at ~ 39.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 148 nautical miles (170 statute miles) to the ENE (57°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1005mb (29.68 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 399m (1,309ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 396m (1,299ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 1,500 feet
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 20 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 43kts (~ 49.5mph) which was observed 152 nautical miles (175 statute miles) to the ENE (61°) from the flight level center at 21:23:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 24°C (75°F) which was observed 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the ENE (59°) from the flight level center
General Notes About Vortex Messages:
- Reported winds are usually averaged over a 10 second period. (NHC advisory wind speeds are the highest expected winds averaged over a 1 minute period.)
- The maximum flight level temperature outside the eye (item I.) "is taken just outside the central region of a cyclone (i.e., just outside the eyewall or just beyond the maximum wind band). This temperature may not be the highest recorded on the inbound leg but is representative of the environmental temperature just outside the central region of the storm."
- The maximum flight level temperature inside the eye (item J.) is the "maximum temperature observed within 5 nm of the center fix coordinates. If a higher temperature is observed at a location more than 5 nm away from the flight level center (item BRAVO), it is reported in Remarks, including bearing and distance from the flight level center."
(Quotes from National Hurricane Operations Plan - NHOP)

[ronjon]

Thought the 5pm NHC Advisory was still a TD. Did I miss something?

[Extratropical94]

Thought the 5pm NHC Advisory was still a TD. Did I miss something?

There was a Special Update at 5.30 pm due to new recon data.

[northjaxpro]

Thought the 5pm NHC Advisory was still a TD. Did I miss something?

NHC upgraded to Colin with a special statement after Recon found tropical storm winds just shortly after they had issued the main advisory.

[Stormcenter]

Not a good time to go visit Mickey and friends.

[MGC]

Max surface winds are displaced 145NM from the center....seems more subtropical to me. I too questioned the upgrade to TD this morning...but I'm not writing the official advisories. You folks in Florida stay dry......MGC

[thundercam96]

Not a good time to go visit Mickey and friends.

I'm afraid there will be many vacations that are altered by this storm.....especially considering the fact the public didn't really know about this storm until a few hours ago.

[AutoPenalti]

Anyone know if this is still a Miami threat, especially now with the upgrade?

[Hammy]

Max surface winds are displaced 145NM from the center....seems more subtropical to me. I too questioned the upgrade to TD this morning...but I'm not writing the official advisories. You folks in Florida stay dry......MGC

I believe the upgrade was made in order to issue warnings and on the assumption it would eventually organize further.

[robbielyn]

Max surface winds are displaced 145NM from the center....seems more subtropical to me. I too questioned the upgrade to TD this morning...but I'm not writing the official advisories. You folks in Florida stay dry......MGC

Kinda hard with a TS coming. j/k.

[caneman]

In addition, winds of 40 - 50 mph have been found and now the gfs takes it to high end t.s. the nhc doesn't have time or the luxury of playing semantics.