ATL: JULIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hammy]

Circulation appears to have been sucked a hundred or so miles east, closer to the convection, in the last 3-4 hours.

[xironman]

Guidance, not tightly clustered...

[arlwx]

TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016
500 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016

Deep convection continues to burst 60 to 70 n mi east of the center
of Julia and is then pushed farther to the east by 25 to 30 kt of
westerly shear affecting the cyclone. The initial intensity is held
at 35 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB, and this
could be a little generous. The shear will remain strong for the
next 2-3 days, and the cyclone is expected to remain in a dry
mid-level environment, which should result in a gradual spin down to
remnant low status. The new NHC forecast is similar to the previous
one and reflects this thinking.

Julia has been moving southeastward tonight, and the initial motion
estimate is 135/04. The cyclone is expected to meander erratically
for the next 2-3 days in weak steering flow, while late in the
period the remnant low should begin to move northeastward. Not
surprisingly, the track model guidance shows a lot of spread in the
direction of motion and the forward speed, so the uncertainty in the
track forecast remains large.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 31.1N 76.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 30.8N 76.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 30.9N 76.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 31.0N 76.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 31.2N 76.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 32.0N 76.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/0600Z 32.5N 75.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

[LarryWx]

Circulation appears to have been sucked a hundred or so miles east, closer to the convection, in the last 3-4 hours.

Indeed, it has! Wow, it has over the last five hours since I posted moved almost straight eastward to near 31.2N, 76.3W, which is nearly about 40 miles in 5 hours. Once again, the models have been clueless about eastward motion though Mr. Avila had the right idea at 11PM to at least not have her move back westward at all. The high shear has been acting to steer Julia further to the east than expected for the better part of 48 hours. It is almost as if the steering level has been higher up in the atmosphere (up near where the strong shear has been) than what the models have been assuming, including the King. The strong convection seems to be sucking the surface low toward it. Fascinating stuff, especially the idea that the most advanced models continue to be clueless. She is hundreds of miles east of where guidance has been. An easy out to sea from here is obviously becoming increasing likely though still not set in stone and, thus, should still be watched in the SE US.

Because she has been sucked so far to the east, she's actually getting convection right around the center for the first time in many hours. It is even starting to wrap around the center. Dare I say, she may be about to strengthen.
--------------------
Later update: she looks like she may be turning SE now.

[tolakram]

Live visible

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=32&lon=-76&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5&mapcolor=yellow

[Emmett_Brown]

I like when a storm tracks where no model had predicted. This has an old school, whip out the tracking chart and weather radio feel to it. It's kind of exciting not knowing where this will be 24 hours from now (or how strong)

[LarryWx]

I like when a storm tracks where no model had predicted. This has an old school, whip out the tracking chart and weather radio feel to it. It's kind of exciting not knowing where this will be 24 hours from now (or how strong)

Agreed. The model consensus continues to have no idea. I have her near 31.2N, 75.7W as of the 9:15 AM satellite pic, actually still moving eastward. Convection very close to and even right around the center last few hours. Could very well be strengthening as a result!
I have her near 31.1N, 75.6W, as of 10:15 AM EDT. So, motion has slowed considerably.

[NDG]

Like I have been saying Julia is red hair, since day one it has been hard for the NHC to forecast its track.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2016/gr ... p_5W.shtml

[LarryWx]

Like I have been saying Julia is red hair, since day one it has been hard for the NHC to forecast its track.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2016/gr ... p_5W.shtml

This animation illustrates very well the NHC and the models consistently being too far west from the getgo. Are they still too far west?

[xironman]

Not the same crazy divergence as yesterday with flight level vs SFMR, given what they sampled so far, definitely TS winds in the NE quadrant.

[LarryWx]

Not the same crazy divergence as yesterday with flight level vs SFMR, given what they sampled so far, definitely TS winds in the NE quadrant.

It wouldn't surprise me at all if it is stronger than 40 mph and strengthening because the closest convection has been closer to the center since just before dawn vs how far away it was yesterday and much of last night. I think the shear has lightened.
This doesn't surprise me because per the 12Z and recent GFS runs, shear has consistently been progged to decrease markedly to moderate levels by this evening and lasting into Monday. So, further strengthening this weekend would not at all be surprising and needs to be monitored for the SE US while it is sitting not too far offshore in mid 80's SST's just in case it doesn't take the escape route further out to sea. It doesn't appear to have moved much at all over the last 3 hours or so.

[xironman]

The little vort just outside the convection looks like it is moving southwest of all directions.

[Alyono]

I'm not seeing much on recon showing that this is a TS. If it is, its barely one

[xironman]

Yesterday the NHC was accepting the SFMRs at face value, I think I saw a 38kt

SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 38 kts (43.7 mph)

[LarryWx]

Yesterday the NHC was accepting the SFMRs at face value, I think I saw a 38kt

SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 38 kts (43.7 mph)

Just looking at visibles of the LLC, it looks, if anything, stronger to me (more spin) than yesterday fwiw. I still have a loop from yesterday on my PC to do a direct comparison. It doesn't at all seem to be filling in.

[Blown Away]

SW Movement From Julia?

[NDG]

Yeap, is moving WSW to SW since earlier this morning.

[MississippiWx]

Seems that no one is paying attention to ex-92L in the NW Gulf. I wouldn't bother mentioning it if it didn't seem to be moving back east over water. If anyone cares to discuss, tune into the Talkin Tropics section. I think this should at the very least be an invest, if not TD.

Sorry for the off-topic. Try not to reply to this here.

Anyway, I've been watching Julia's movement today as well. SW is her choice of the day. I could certainly see her backing into FL again next week. Who knows what will be left of her at that point, though.

[Blown Away]

:uarrow: Yeap, is moving WSW to SW since earlier this morning.

Crazy the TVCN takes nearly 5 days to make it to Florida...

[Kazmit]

Naked swirl.